杜尔：第一季度后的最新情况

38.00 EUR(40.00OLD)F26E1.822.50FinancialsRevenues (M)EBIT (M)Adjusted EPSDividend/Share F24AF25E1.411.28--1.87 F24AF25EF26E4,2914,3284,636198.69206.70269.002.021.572.120.700.500.70 DETAILSVALUATIONWe continue to value Dürr based on an 60:40 blend of a DCF and what we term our ‘no-growth scenario’ valuation. In this way, wecombine a method that enables us to capture the medium- to long-term growth opportunity (DCF), with a conservative approachthat allows us to incorporate macro risks (no-growth scenario).While our underlying estimates remain broadly unchanged (we leave our 2Q-4Q25 estimates unchanged and incorporateDürr’s 1Q25 results), we increase our WACC from 9.4% to 9.9% to reflect a higher risk-free rate and expected market returnassumptions. This results in a lower price target of €38.00 (previously: €40.00).Exhibit 1 illustrates the effects of the various drivers/impacts on our price target.EXHIBIT 1:Impacts of the various drivers on our pricetarget (€)40Previous PTSource: Bernstein analysis and estimatesExhibit 2 and Exhibit 3 present our ‘no-growth scenario’ valuation and a summary of our PT calculation for Dürr, respectively.EXHIBIT 2:‘No-growth scenario’ valuation overviewIn €m except otherwise statedNO-GROWTH SCENARIO VALUATIONAdjusted FCFF calculation:Adjusted EBITDAMaintenance CAPEXTaxesTax rate (%)Cash flow from discontinued operationsAdjusted FCFFNo-growth FCFF yield calculation:WACC (%)Perpetual growth g (%)No-growth FCFF yield (=WACC-g)No-growth value calculations:No-growth EVNet debt incl. leases - adjusted (if needed)Pension liabilitiesMinoritiesInvestments in associated companiesAdjusted net prepaymentsOther adjustmentsAdjustments for discontinued operationsNo-growth Equity ValueNoSh (millions)No-growth value per share (€)Source: Bernstein analysis and estimatesDCF APPROACHExhibit 4 shows our DCF calculation for Dürr. To discount the company’s cash flows, we use a WACC of 9.9% (previously: 9.4%).We continue to use a terminal growth rate of 2.0%.EUROPEAN CAPITAL GOODS 380-3+1Impact fromchanges ofestimatesImpact from changein WACCImpact fromvaluation rolloverNew PTFY25eFY26eFY27e324.8393.7463.4-118.7-125.0-131.4-52.3-71.0-90.030.0%30.0%30.0%37.843.244.6as % of sales9.0%9.0%9.0%191.7240.9286.69.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%9.9%9.9%9.9%1,936.22,433.22,894.4-526.0-448.4-318.0-33.0-33.0-33.0-6.6-6.8-7.131.231.231.2-84.9-69.1-55.5-197.8-197.8-197.831.665.299.91,150.81,774.42,414.169.269.269.216.6025.6034.90EXHIBIT 3:We derive a PT of €38.00€m unless otherwise statedFY25eFY26eFY27ePRICE TARGET CALCULATIONInput parameters:Cost of equity (%)12.3%WACC (%)9.9%No-growth scenario valuation:No-growth value25.634.9Valuation overview:No-growth value - 1Y fwd (*)40%22.831.1DCF value60%46.351.3Blended value36.943.2Price Target38.0Upside/downside:Current share price24.4Upside (+)/downside (-)56%IMPLIED 12M FORWARD MULTIPLESImplied EV/sales0.7x0.7xImplied EV/EBITDA8.6x8.0xImplied EV/EBIT12.6x11.2xImplied P/E17.4x16.0x(*) Discounted, excluding dividend payments for the respective yearsSource: Bernstein analysis and estimates2 APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTSEXHIBIT 5:Annual segment estimates (continued + discontinued operations)€m unless otherwise statedAutomotiveIndustrial AutomationWoodworkingClean Technology Systems EnvironmentalCorporate Centre / Consolidation / AllocationGroup order intakeAutomotiveIndustrial AutomationWoodworkingClean Technology Systems EnvironmentalCorporate Centre / Consolidation / AllocationGroup book-to-bill ratioAutomotiveIndustrial AutomationWoodworkingClean Technology Systems EnvironmentalCorporate Centre / Consolidation / AllocationGroup salesAutomotiveIndustrial AutomationWoodworkingClean Technology Systems EnvironmentalCorporate Centre / Consolidation / AllocationGroup adjusted EBITAdjustmentso/w PPA amortisationo/w othersGroup reported EBITSource: Bernstein analysis and estimatesEUROPEAN CAPITAL GOODS Source: Bernstein analysis and estimatesEXHIBIT 11:FCFE/FCFF calculations (company + Bernstein definition)€m unless otherwise statedCash flow from operating activities (company definition)CapexInterest receivedRepayment of lease liabilitiesInterest paidFree cash flow to equity - FCFE (company definition)Cash flow from operating activities (company definition)Dividends paid to non-controlling interestsPayments for transactions with the owners of non-controlling interestsInterest receivedRepayment of lease liabilitiesInterest paidCash flow from operating activities - OCF (Bernstein definition)CapexFree cash flow to equity - FCFE (Bernstein definition)Free cash flow to equity - FCFE (Bernstein definition)Interest paidInterest receivedDividends paid to non-controlling interestsPayments for transactions with the owners of non-controlling interestsFree cash flow to the firm - FCFF (Bernstein definition)Source: Bernstein analysis and estimatesEUROPEAN CAPITAL GOODS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingDUE.GYOOLDEDMPRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLDO - Outperform, M - Mar