埃尔德斯（ELD）：2025年上半年业绩：Delta Dawn

-12%-43bp -4%-7%-7% 3,712.6Old4,4552305.2%127670%42 2025E2026E2027E951221330.550.640.709.7x7.5x6.7x4,309.74,479.0FY26EFY27ENew% chgOldNew% chg4,310-3%4,6304,479-3%220-4%246245-1%5.1%-5bp5.3%5.5%15bp122-4%138133-3%64-4%7370-3%420%46460% John Campbell * | Equity Analyst+61 439052387 | jcampbell1@jefferies.comTom Chapman * | Equity Analyst+61 438499671 | tom.chapman@jefferies.comWei Sim * | Equity Analyst+61 477773438 | wei.sim@jefferies.comJennifer Xu * | Equity Associate+61 293642894 | jennifer.xu@jefferies.com The Long View: EldersInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferELD is a well-regarded supplier to the low-growth Aust ag sector (Austfarm output 25y CAGR 2%). It's the #2 player to #1 Nutrien, but only hasc7% Aust share (c15% of true TAM), so it has a big runway to penetrate.Its business model is low cap-intensity, but does have high seasonal WCrequirements. The ag sector typically sells on low PEs as does ELD and wesee that as justified. Though ELD's diversified across Aust ag, it remainshighly dependent (c45% of GP) on the low/neg growth livestock sector. Austag is itself volatile around climatic conditions. 2020-23 was positive in thisregard, but the years ahead are less likely to be so. ELD's current 8-PointPlan has merit, but it's hard to factor in benefits at this stage.Base Case,AUD7.2, +14%We value ELD on a blended basis including: 1)DCF; 2) PE-based using International ag comps;3) PE-based using Aust/NZ ag comps; and 4) PE-based using ELD historical mid-cycle multiple.We apply a 10% premium to International compsbut no premium to Aust Ag comps. On this basis,we set a PT of A$7.20.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues:1) Retaining and attracting a diverse, values-aligned and competent workforce; 2) Reaching thecompany target of 100% renewable electricity in Aust sites by 2025; 3) Enabling customers to achievesustainable farming; 4) Safeguarding the wellbeing of animals in our careCompany Targets:1.100% renewable electricity in Aust sites by 2025;2.50% reduction in Scope 1 & 2 emissions intensity by 2030, net zero in Scope 1 & 2by 2050;3.Ensuring the humane treatment of the animals with which our staff and contractorsinteractQuestions to Management:1.What measures are you taking to drive improved female participation (current 20%senior executives)?2.What measures are you taking to drive improved animal welfare across your farmingcustomers including live animal exporting?3.What measures are you putting in place to drive proactive risk management toimprove workplace safety and what are your targets?Please see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,AUD8.7, +38%We value ELD on a blended basis including: 1)DCF; 2) PE-based using International ag comps;3) PE-based using Aust/NZ ag comps; and 4) PE-based using ELD historical mid-cycle multiple.Our upside scenario assumes 100bp GP marginsabove base case, and we apply 15% PE premiumto comp multiples. On this basis, we set anupside PT of A$8.70. Downside Scenario,AUD5.9, -6%We value ELD on a blended basis including: 1)DCF; 2) PE-based using International ag comps;3) PE-based using Aust/NZ ag comps; and 4) PE-based using ELD historical mid-cycle multiple.Ourdownside scenario assumes-100bp GPmargins below base case, and we apply -5% PEdiscount to comp multiples. On this basis, we seta downside PT of A$5.90.Catalysts•Increase/decrease in livestock prices•Increase/decrease in glyphosate/ urea prices•Extreme climatic conditions•M&A 2 Figure 3 - ELD Financial Summary.Income Statement(A$m)Revenue% growthUnderlying EBITDA% marginD&AUnderlying EBITEBIT gth %Net interest expenseProfit before taxTax expenseMinoritiesUnderlying NPAT post MinsAbnormals after TaxReported NPATEPS diluted (underlying ¢)EPS gth %DPS (¢)Segments(A$m)RevenueBranch NetworkWholesale ProductsFeed and ProcessingDeltaCorporateTotalReported EBITDABranch NetworkWholesale ProductsFeed and ProcessingDeltaCorporateTotalLess AdjustmentsUnderlying EBITDAMarginsBranch NetworkWholesale ProductsFeed and ProcessingDeltaTotalD&AUnderlying EBITEBIT gth %Operating MetricsRatiosSales growth (%)COGS growth (%)EBITDA growth (%)EBIT growth (%)NPAT growth (%)ROE (%)ROCE (%)EPS (Underlying)Equity ValueNet Debt incl LeasesEVSource: Jefferies estimates, company dataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionEldersElders Ltd. is engaged in providing financial, real estate services to rural, agricultural and automotive businesses. The firm operates its businessthrough the following segments: Branch Network, Wholesale Products, Feed and Processing Services, and Corporate Services and Other. TheBranch Network segment includes the provision of a range of agricultural products and services through a common distribution channel. TheWholesale Pro