NTPC（NTPC IN）：持有：设定激进的增长目标

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India)Private LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAIN HOLDTARGET PRICE(INR)PREVIOUS TARGET(INR)385.00380.00SHARE PRICE(INR)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE344.60+11.7%(as of23 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(INRm)3,341,472Market cap(USDm)39,2193m ADTV (USDm)54FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(INR)Year to03/2025a03/2026eHSBC EPS18.58HSBC EPS (prev)20.47Change (%)-9.2Consensus EPS21.92PE (x)18.5Dividend yield (%)2.4EV/EBITDA (x)9.7ROE (%)11.652-WEEK PRICE(INR)Source:RefinitivIBES, HSBC estimatesPuneet Gulati*, CFAAnalyst, India Energy Transition, Property & InfraHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedpuneetgulati@hsbc.co.in+91 82 9189 7591Akshay Malhotra*Analyst, India Power and Real EstateHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedakshay.malhotra@hsbc.co.in+91 22 2268 2007* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations.EquitiesElectric UtilitiesIndia05/2411/24Target price: 385.00High: 443.20 Low: 298.20 Current: 344.60 ◆◆◆ Free floatBBGRIC21.0921.89-3.624.1016.32.89.412.2 30%NTPC INNTPC.BO03/2027e03/2028e22.3623.6522.86-2.225.8925.4015.414.62.98.712.112.0280.00375.00470.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to03/2025a03/2026eProfit & loss summary(INRm)Revenue1,700,3741,736,181EBITDA453,732452,346Depreciation & amortisation-150,558-143,743Operating profit/EBIT303,173308,603Net interest-110,570-87,735PBT269,491272,667HSBC PBT274,041272,667Taxation-72,997-68,167Net profit196,494204,500HSBC net profit180,157204,500Cash flow summary(INRm)Cash flow from operations426,135501,123Capex-206,756-112,399Cash flow from investment-205,457-220,193Dividends-79,998-92,025Change in net debt-19,058-47,202FCF equity219,379388,724Balance sheet summary(INRm)Intangible fixed assets00Tangible fixed assets2,700,1782,706,435Current assets1,027,9441,093,595Cash & others47,786154,987Total assets4,079,1774,258,878Operating liabilities516,961524,187Gross debt1,452,5591,512,559Net debt1,404,7731,357,571Shareholders' funds1,616,4061,728,881Invested capital3,163,3753,120,855Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to03/2025a03/2026eY-o-y % changeRevenue5.02.1EBITDA5.1-0.3Operating profit3.71.8PBT9.21.2HSBC EPS9.813.5Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.60.6ROIC7.27.4ROE11.612.2ROA6.96.5EBITDA margin26.726.1Operating profitmargin17.817.8EBITDA/net interest (x)4.15.2Net debt/equity86.978.5Net debt/EBITDA (x)3.13.0CF from operations/net debt30.336.9Per share data(INR)EPS Rep (diluted)20.2621.09HSBC EPS (diluted)18.5821.09DPS8.359.49Book value166.70178.30Financials & valuation:NTPC Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 23 May 2025 Key performance metricUnits4Q231Q242Q243Q24MW72,25473,02473,82473,874MW72,25472,36473,82473,874MW1,3701101,460MW56,36857,03857,83857,838MW56,36856,37857,83857,838INRm413391409395INRm111114105INRm574139INRm-888INRm494947MUs89,66888,54690,30289,46712%-2%6%14%MUs89,44588,29989,87189,45912%-2%5%14%MUs83,42082,29283,80783,85113%-3%4%15%MT57.8258.0555.4162.38MT54.8555.5754.1660.23MT2.972.481.252.15MT6.486.245.598.09%49%52%29%51%%94%96%90%86%%94%93%92%92%%104%109%109%104%%80%77%76%76%%2%10%18%%24%25%20%19%%14%40%93%21%%48%63%60%44% Change in estimatesWe tweak our commissioning estimatesto include deferralof commissioning of thermal projects.This results in our FY26-27EPSestimates changing by-2.2% to-3.6%.We also introduce ourFY28 estimates.We roll forwardour valuation and reflectadditional NGEL projects.Change in estimates_______New forecast______________Old forecast_________________Change_________NTPC (INRbn)FY26eTotal sales1,736EBITDA452Netincome205EPS21.0922.36Source:HSBC estimatesValuation and riskNTPCprice to 1-yearforwardbook (x)Source: Company data, HSBC 5FY27eFY28eFY26eFY27eFY28eFY26eFY27eFY28e1,8001,8911,7511,816na-0.8%-0.9%na476502487505na-7.1%-5.6%na217229212222na-3.6%-2.2%na23.6521.8922.86na-3.6%-2.2%na ValuationWe value NTPC using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP)approach (see table below). Wevalue NTPC’s core FY26e (unchanged) regulated equity at a target PBratio of 2.34x(unchanged).We set ourtarget PB by assuming a cost of equity of 11.1% based ontheupdatedcost of equity assumptions(seeCost of Equity 2024, 8 July 2024): risk-free rate of 3.75%, inflation premium of1.75% (unchanged), equity risk premium of5.75%(unchanged), and beta of 1.0(unchanged). We assume a regulated return onequity of 18.0%, and a terminal growth rateof6% due to capacity addition plans givenIndia’sfocus on energy security (unchanged).We assign a DCF-based valuation to its renewable business assuming a cost of equityof 12.0% (unchanged), based on a risk-free rate of 3.75%, inflation premium of1.75%,risk premium of 5.7%, and beta of 1.1.We then adjust for NTPC’s ownership of89.01% in NGEL (NTPC Green EnergyLimited). This results in our equity value ofINR894bn which implies a holding company discount of 30% on NTPC’s shares inN