氯碱周报：液碱库存回落，关注主力下游复产进度

请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 2025年期货市场研究报告PVC：出口支撑下社会库存延续去化市场要闻与重要数据价格方面：截至2025-05-23，期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4854元/吨（-72）；华东基差-104元/吨（+2）；华南基差-54元/吨（-8）。现货价格：华东电石法报价4750元/吨（-70）；华南电石法报价4800元/吨（-80）；华东乙烯法报价：5050元/吨（+0）；华南乙烯法报价：4980元/吨（+0）。供应方面：上游电石平均开工负荷62.84%（-1.54%）；PVC开工率76.19%（-1.51%）；PVC电石法开工率74.81%（-2.88%）；PVC乙烯法开工率79.78%（+2.05%）。停车及检修造成的损失量在13.85万吨（+0.88）需求方面：PVC下游综合开工率在46.93%（+0.48%），其中PVC下游管材开工率在45.31%（-3.75%），PVC下游型材开工率39.60%（+3.70%），PVC下游薄膜开工率73.89%（+3.89%）。下游订单情况：生产企业预售量60.32万吨（-2.86）。生产利润方面：截至2025-05-23，陕西兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；山东电石价格2980元/吨（+0）；兰炭生产毛利39.90元/吨（+22.90），西北电石生产毛利-88.00元/吨（-50.00）；PVC电石法单品种生产毛利-621.00元/吨（+37.00）；PVC乙烯法单品种生产毛利-516.00元/吨（+10.00）；PVC出口利润0美元/吨（+0）库存方面：PVC厂内库存38.67万吨（-1.94）；PVC社会库存37.75万吨（-1.96），其中PVC华东社会库存33.09万吨（-2.07），PVC华南社会库存4.66万吨（+0.11）市场分析供应端，周内新增三家检修企业，前期检修装置延续停车，PVC开工环比小幅下滑，但后期计划检修较少，PVC产量处于同期高位，叠加6-7月新增产能投产预期，PVC供应压力仍较大。需求端，PVC下游制品企业开工处于同期低位，PVC管、型材与薄膜开工弱稳，下游市场逢低刚需采购为主，需求端弱势难改。出口订单持续稳定交付，PVC社会库存继续回落但去化速率较缓慢，印度反倾销以及BIS认证政策的不确定性仍会影响PVC出口。成本端上游原料电石市场弱稳，PVC成本端支撑不足。PVC高供应高库存压力或将继续压制其上行空间，同时内需仍显疲弱，基本面缺乏利好支撑，PVC走势承压，继续关注宏观政策及下游需求修复情况。策略中性：PVC高库存高供应压力或将压制其上行空间，同时内需仍显疲弱，基本面缺乏利好支撑，PVC走势承压，估值低位下短期内价格预期维持底部偏弱震荡，继续关注宏观政策及下游需求修复情况。风险下游开工环比大幅回升；宏观利好信息释放。 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明第2页第2页 2025年期货市场研究报告目录一、烧碱价格&价差...................................................................................................................................6二、PVC价格&价差...................................................................................................................................8三、成本利润..........................................................................................................................................10四、烧碱供应..........................................................................................................................................11五、液氯价格与液氯下游..........................................................................................................................12六、PVC供应..........................................................................................................................................14七、烧碱下游需求....................................................................................................................................15八、PVC下游需求....................................................................................................................................17九、烧碱&PVC库存数据...........................................................................................................................18图表图1：烧碱主力合约....................................................................................................................................................................6图2：液碱32%山东价格............................................................................................................................................................6图3：液碱50%山东价格............................................................................................................................................................6图4：液碱32%江苏价格............................................................................................................................................................6图5：片碱99%新疆价格............................................................................................................................................................6图6：液碱32%山东基差............................................................................................................................................................7图7：液碱50%山东基差............................................................................................................................................................7图8：山东50%-32%液碱...........................................................................................................................................................7图9：50%液碱广东-山东...........................................................................................................................................................7图10：32%液碱江苏-山东.........................................................................................................................................................7图11：SH01-SH05......................................................................................................................................................................7图12：SH05-SH09......................................................................................................................................................................8图13：SH09-SH01......................................................................................................................................................................8图14：PVC主力合约..................................................................................................................................................................8图15：PVC电石法华东价格..........................................................................