小米集团-W（01810）：自有芯片标志新起点

1Rating (Maintain):BUYTarget price (HKD):71.20AnalystHUANG Leping, PhDSAC No. S0570521050001SFC No.AUZ066huangleping@htsc.com+(852) 3658 6000AnalystCHEN XudongSAC No. S0570521070004SFC No. BPH392chenxudong@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228AnalystHUANG LiyueSAC No. S0570523070007SFC No. BRH099andrewhuang@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228AnalystYU KeyiSAC No. S0570525030001SFC No. BVF938yukeyi@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228Key dataTarget price (HKD)71.20Closing price (HKD as of 23 May)53.00Potential upside-/+ (%)34Mkt cap (HKDmn)1,375,2116m avg daily val(HKDmn)11,56852wk price range (HKD)15.36-59.45BVPS (RMB)7.52Share performanceSource:S&P(14)44103161219May-24Sep-24Jan-25May-25(%)Xiaomi CorpHSI forecastsat This report must be read with important disclosures and analyst certifications located on the end of the report.Valuation methodOur SOTP-based target price for Xiaomi is HKD71.20 (unchanged), based on an exchange rate ofHKD1=RMB0.92. Our target price implies 40x 2025E PE on non-GAAP attributable net profit.Maintain BUY.1) We continue to value its smartphone business at 25x 2025E PE (2025E net profit excludingauto investment), or HKD44/share (62% of our target valuation; unchanged).This represents apremium over its peers’average of 19.5x on Wind consensus, primarily supported by fast growth ofitsIoT businesses(eg,home appliances),and our positive outlook on the value of itscomprehensive ecosystem in the AI era.2) We value Xiaomi’s auto business at 2.5x 2027E PS (unchanged), or HKD27.2/share (38% ofour target valuation; unchanged), above its peers’average of 0.72x 2027E PS on Wind consensus,as we believe its new factories in Beijing and other locations could contribute additional productioncapacity to drive rapid growth in the auto business. We think the sales success of the SU7 Ultra alsodemonstrates Xiaomi’s capabilities in the luxury vehicle segment. Furthermore, we expect Xiaomi’s‘human-vehicle-home’strategy to provide strong support for the auto business, and the company’soverall resources could underpin its auto segment better than NEV startups amid fiercecompetition.Fig.5:Xiaomi–SOTP valuationRevenue Net profit margin383,63110.5%250,000Note: The exchange rate is HKD1 = RMB0.92.Fig.6:Peers valuations (Wind consensus as of 22May 2025)Note: All estimatescome from Wind consensus estimatesTRANSSIONECOVACSROBOROCKHAIER SMARTALIBABA-WLI AUTO-WCom parablecom paniesUSD201.3630183.81HKD74.50849.56CNY57.02328.03CNY237.60438.90CNY26.192457.39HKD516.5047462.85HKD119.1022733.79HKD82.051561.86HKD112.302404.21HKD30.60682.92TradingcurrencyClosingpriceMarket cap(RMB100m n) 6Net profit Valuation methodValuation multipleValuation40,418P/E25.01,010,4575.0%12,500P/S2.5625,0001,635,45724,95565.571.2XPENG-W2025E2026E2025E2026E2025E2026E2027E7.257.9527.7825.335.316.1614.0312.102.643.0921.5718.4810.8813.6821.8417.362.272.5211.5610.3823.3026.3322.1719.626.897.5917.2715.7019.4617.00-0.69-0.69-118.07-118.071.591.100.905.035.0322.3322.331.230.950.85-7.24-7.24-4.23-4.230.640.500.421.150.850.72EPS (RMB)PE（X）PS This report must be read with important disclosures and analyst certifications located on the end of the report.RisksSlower auto progress than the market expects.While Xiaomi’s auto business is currentlyprogressing well, the market has high expectations for the business and competition remainsintense. If factory capacity expansion or sales fall short of market expectations, this may bringdownside risks.Weaker smartphone demand than we expect.The global smartphone market is relatively weakand highly competitive, with geopolitical factors also impacting brand expansion. Failure to gainmarket share could pose downside risks.Macroeconomic downturns.Economic fluctuations could affect demand for Xiaomi’s hardwarebusiness or reduce advertising spending from software clients, potentially impacting the company'searnings outlook.Fig.7:Xiaomi CorporationPE-BandsMay-22Nov-22May-23Nov-23May-24Nov-24━━━━━Xiaomi Corp 7Fig.8:Xiaomi CorporationPB-BandsSource:S&P,Huatai Research75x65x50x40x25x016324763May-22Nov-22May-23Nov-23May-24Nov-24(HKD)━━━━━Xiaomi Corp7.4x5.8x4.3x2.8x1.3x Source:S&P,Huatai Research This report must be read with important disclosures and analyst certifications located on the end of the report.Full financialsIncome statementYE 31 Dec (RMBmn)RevenueCost of goods soldGross marginSelling and distribution costAdmin expensesOther income/expensesFinancial cost-netShare of P&L ofassociateProfit before taxTax expenseMinority interest/otherNet profit attr. to parentDiscount and amortizationEBITDAEPS(RMB, basic)Balance sheetYE 31 Dec (RMBmn)InventoriesAccount & bill receivablesCash & cash equivalentsOther current assetsTotal current assetsFixed assetsIntangible assetsOther non-current assetsTotal non-current assetsTotal assetsAccounts payableShort-term loansOther liabilitiesTotal current liabilitiesInterest-bearing bank borrowingsOther long term liabilitiesTotal non-current liabilitiesEquityReserves/other itemsShareholder equityMinority interest