拉丁美洲外汇聚焦：半满的杯子

LatAm FX Focus CurrenciesLatin America Glass half full ◆We areconstructiveon LatAm FXand expectfurther strengthinto 2026, with some pockets of turbulence in 2H25◆Resilient growth, geopolitics, localelections andpositioningallow forgains, but global growthand local fiscalarerisks◆In 2H25wepreferCLPandBRL; aremorecautious on MXN,COP,and ARS;andaremoreneutral on PEN and UYU Joseph Incalcaterra, CFAHead of LatAm FX StrategyHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.joseph.incalcaterra@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 5606 Clyde WardleSenior EM FX StrategistHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.clyde.wardle@us.hsbc.com+1 646 610 3260 Allison BuckAnalyst, LatAm FX and EconomicsHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.allison.buck@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 4119 We havehad aconstructive view on LatAm FXthis year.Our conviction hasincreasedafter meeting with investors across the US,Europe, and Latin America,whotend toagree with an improvingoutlookforLatAmbut have notfullypositioned for one.Ourpositioning datasuggest a similar story.WeseeLatAmbenefitting from threefactorsgoing into 2026: 1)astrong geopolitical position as LatAmavoidsthe worst ofUStariffswhile engaging with the rest of the world,2) elections over the next year anda half thatpointtowards market-friendly outcomes; and 3) resilientlocal growth amidglobaldisinflation; albeit we see pockets of turbulence for certain currencies in 2H25. Quiet on the trade front, for now.LatAmavoidedhigh reciprocal tariff ratesdue torelatively balanced tradewith the USin the region ex-Mexico, and given deepintegration of NorthAmericansupply chains.Currently, theregion is on the back-burner as theUSfocuses on trade dealswith Europe and Asia. Attention will turn toLatAm later in the year alongsidepossibleUSMCArenegotiation, and weseeunderpricedrisks forMXNduringUSMCAdiscussionsamid possible changes to theagreement,as well asareasof tensionfor LatAmrelating to Chinese investment.However, longerterm,we seescope forgreater intra-Americas trade,withMexicoultimately coming out in a good position. Election season.Relatively market-friendlycandidatesandcoalitions arefavouredto do well in Argentina’s mid-term elections in October, elections in Chile inNovember, legislative and presidential elections in Colombia next March and May,elections in Peru next April, andin BrazilnextOctober.The latter is the mostuncertain andconsequential–election polling will increasingly matter and willinterplay with near-term fiscal risks. This will create volatility for BRL, where fiscalnoise has returned, but we ultimately believe risks are tilted to the upsidegoing into2026. A similar dynamic is at play in Colombia: the fiscal hasworsened,but manysee a potentialchange in government in 2026 as an offset. Still growing.Lastly, on the cyclical side of the equation,activity hasbeen surprisingpositivelyacross LatAm, in particular Brazil,Chile, and Colombia. Eventhe Mexicaneconomy, having slowed drasticallysince 2H24, is performing better than consensusexpectations.Meanwhile, we see global disinflationary pressuresgaining force, keepingreal rates high, a support for the FX.Westaybroadlyconstructiveon LatAm FX,butsee pockets of turbulence in 2H25. WepreferBRL and CLP; are more cautious onMXN,COP, and ARSat current levels,andare neutral on UYU and PEN.We makesome tweaks to forecasts in this report, and update our positioning indicators. GCC Exchanges Conference 2025 16 -19 June, The May Fair Hotel, London Register Issuer of report:HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Glass half full.LatAm FX hasdone well this year (Chart 1)–albeit this is partly a reflection of agenerally difficult2024 formuch ofthe region (Chart 2). Thisalsoreflects our view that the worsthas passed for LatAm and we see abetter balance of risksfor the regiongoingforward, withcaveats.We thinktechnicals, positioning, and fundamentals aregenerallysupportive. There are risks to consider:Most importantly, in Colombia and Brazil, fiscal risksneedclosemonitoring(Charts 3 & 4).Colombia’sfiscal scenario is precariousand we see few signs ofimprovement.Credit ratingcuts are possiblethis year and even under a change of governmentnext year, itwillbe hard to fully reverse therecentfiscaldamage. Meanwhile, in Brazil, fiscalnoise has re-emergedaftera period of calm,and could createpockets of volatility, but webelieve the government is committed to meetingthe fiscal rule this year, evidenced by spendingfreezes.In both countries,growthhasbeenstronger than expected in 1Q,and there istheanticipationthat future political changes could stabilize debt-to-GDP ratiosin the future. In the case of Mexico,the paramount risk is thatUSMCA still has to be renegotiatedlater thisyearand the cyclical picture ischallenging.Although we areultimatelyconfidentthatUSMCAwill remain in place, we beli