利维安汽车公司管理层会议要点 - 加速自动驾驶叙事

Restricted - External RIVNEQUAL WEIGHTU.S. Autos & MobilityNEGATIVEPrice TargetUSD 14.00Price (21-May-25)USD 16.34Potential Upside/Downside-14.3%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchU.S. Autos & MobilityDan Levy+1 212 526 3212dan.levy@barclays.comBCI, USJosh Cho+1 212 526 7156joshua.cho@barclays.comBCI, US •RIVN has a team of hundreds of people working on autonomy.••Improved capabilities will become more visibly evident. Functionality will be updated•through monthly OTA updates (over-the-air). Later this year RIVN will be expanding itshands-off/eyes-oncapabilities to more highways and select surface roads, and next year ahands-off/eyes-offfeature is planned for controlled conditions with R1 Gen2 vehicles.Rich data a core advantage, quality over quantity•Gen2 R1 is providing a rich set of data – itoffers55 megapixels of camera data, and over 200•TOPs of onboard inference; R2 is expected toofferincreased camera data vs Gen2 R1. RIVN’scameras have dynamic range, operating well in low light or very bright conditions. Moreover,Gen2 R1 is also supplementing its camera data with data from four corner radars and a front3D imaging radar…providing a much richer dataset.•RIVN stressed the importance of having raw and unprocessed data fed into its foundation•model, as opposed to data processed by third parties.•On the question of how RIVN can create AV capabilities without the same resources of Tesla•(i.e. Tesla using ~100k GPUs to train its data and a much larger fleet of vehicles), RIVNhighlighted its advantage of higher quality data, and also theefficacyof its data processingleveraging a cluster of captive GPUs; as an analogy, mgmt cited the example in LLMs ofefficacyof training.What to expect at AV/AI day•RIVN will be hosting an AV/AI day in the Fall. Key items it expects to discuss – its hardware•roadmap, AI and neural net strategy, data infrastructure and flywheel, as well as productdemonstrations.•On AI, mgmt cited the importance of integrating AI intodifferentareas of the business,•including service, diagnostics, and sales.AV business model, Partnership opportunities, VW on AV•AV/AIoffersadifferentbusiness model vs the core vehicle sales model. It willofferRIVN•multiple monetization opportunities (sale of assets, tech licensing, and per-mile revenuegeneration), broadly enabling RIVN to own profit across a vehicle’s lifecycle.•Like its network architecture, RIVN could eventually partner with other OEMs on AV down the•road – although it will first need to prove its capabilities.•AV was not included in the network architecture JV with VW. However, this does not preclude•VW from eventually collaborating with RIVN on AV, and VW could be a good OEM on whichRIVN could demonstrate its AV capabilities.•RIVN believes the cost structure of its ECUs will be unrivaled.•Long-term focus on AV, competitive dynamics•Mgmt sees L4 AV as a long-term critical requirement, and an opportunity to further establish•a competitive advantage. The advances of vehicle megatrends in China (AV, EV,software)provide a glimpse of how the West will ultimately evolve. 2 •RIVN believes that in the West only they, Waymo, and Tesla will have the right set of AV•capabilities, with some form of end-to-end AV, and without relying on rules-basedarchitectures.R2, VW JVR2 remains the most critical focus•Mgmt reiterated “all roads lead to R2,” and is the most critical focus of RIVN, including in the•JV. RIVN started its validation builds of R2 in 1Q, with strong reads on the status of itsdevelopment and capabilities, and providing confidence on the launch next year. Thishighlights the progress of engineering design, sub-systems, and processes – and reflectingthe strength of technology continuing into R2.•R2 will start with a launch edition, with a more narrow set of build combinations; expect ASP•to be elevated at least initially.JV reflecting quick decision making, opportunity to extend to other OEMs•The VW JV continues to progress, benefiting from quick decision making and a strong•technology foundation.•VW is demonstrating it is “all in” with the JV, as it will be rolling out the technology across a•wide set of vehicles, including ID.1 – a core mass marketofferingfrom VW.•While RIVN is currently focused on execution in the JV, it reiterated the opportunity for other•automakers to eventually license the JV’s network architecture/technology, as RIVN believesits architecture is a superior option in enablingsoftwaredefined vehicles.°OUR TAKE – we believe there is potential for another large legacy automaker to license°technology from RIVN.Policy developments – EV tax credit,tariffsEV tax credit benefits into 2026•While the currently proposed "Big, Beautiful Bill" would end the $7,500 EV tax credit at the•end of this year for OEMs with more than 200k EV sales cumulatively, RIVN would stillsomewhat benefit from this credit into 2026 as it has sold less than 200k vehicles.°OUR TAKE: RIVN potentially could benefit from the credit for all of 2026 ….including o