2025年第一季度收益洞察疲软年份的强劲开局？

Restricted - External U.S. Equity StrategyVenu Krishna, CFA+1 212 526 7328venu.krishna@barclays.comBCI, USMadhuresh Rai, CFA+1 212 526 5752maddy.rai@barclays.comBCI, USRex Feng+ 1 212 526 6114rex.feng@barclays.comBCI, USJapinder Chawla, CFA+1 212 526 2771japinder.chawla@barclays.comBCI, USYoung Chen+1 212 526 6923young.chen@barclays.comBCI, US FIGURE 1. Barclays FY 2025 Year-End Estimates for S&P 500Data as of 5/20/2025Source: Barclays Research FIGURE 2. Y/Y sales and EPS growth was strongFIGURE 3. Beat-to-miss ratio best for Healthcare, Comm Svcs andIndustrials74%93%86%82%81%73%70%69%61%58%55%8%2%5%5%9%12%7%8%10%13%18%18%5%10%13%9%15%23%22%29%29%27%0%20%40%60%80%100%SPXHLTHCOMMINDUINFTMATRCONSFINLCONDUTILENRBeatMetMissData as of 5/16/2025Source: Bloomberg, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays ResearchSource: Bloomberg, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research1Q25 Earnings Learnings: Strong start to a weak year?•More than 92% of the S&P 500 has announced earnings for 1Q25. All but one (NVDA) of our BigTech cohort has now reported results.•The depth of the EPS surprise (8.2% average beat) was well above LT trend (5.2%), whilethe breadth of the EPS surprise was also impressive (~80% of companies beat consensusestimates, vs. LT trend 76%). Beat-to-miss ratio was best for Healthcare, CommunicationServices and Industrials, while Energy and Utilities missed moreoften.•Y/Y EPS growth was very strong at +11.5% vs. LT trend of +6.3%. Y/Y sales growth of +4.7% wasmodestly better than the LT trend of +4.1%. EPS growth surpassing sales growth appears tobe driving positive operating leverage.FIGURE 4. Breadth and depth of EPS surprise was better than LT average-8%-4%0%4%8%12%16%20%24%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%Dec-98Dec-01Dec-04Dec-07Dec-10Dec-13Dec-16Dec-19Dec-22SPX% beating consensus EPS(RHS) EPS Surprise %Beats%Surprise%prepandemic 7y medianData as of 5/16/2025Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Bloomberg, Barclays Research•Better-than-average depth of surprise is being driven by CommunicationServices, Discretionary and Healthcare, with Communication Services seeing the best EPS3 FIGURE 5. Average surprise greatest for Comm Svcs, DiscretionaryFIGURE 6. Big Tech delivered the strongest EPS surprise since early202125Q124Q424Q324Q224Q10%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%SPX w/o Tech (LT = 4.9%)TechX (LT = 5.1%)BigTech (LT = 7.2%)EPS Surp.LT = Prepandemic 7y trend. Data as of 5/16/2025Source: Bloomberg, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays ResearchSource: Bloomberg, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 7. Strong results by BigTechliftedthe overall SPX EPSFIGURE 8. Barclays Earnings Quality score came in at 3.2 for 1Q25Contribution to SPX EPS Surpriserest of SPX3M EPSrevisionsEPS y/yEPSSurprise3.24.51.53.0SPX 25yEarnings QualityData as of 5/16/2025Source: Bloomberg, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays ResearchSource: Bloomberg, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Researchsurprise since early 2021, mostly thanks to GOOGL. Healthcare's above-average EPS surprisewas helped by PFE (not covered).Big Tech is delivering the strongest EPS surprise since early 2021, highlighting that estimateswere likely conservative going into the print.The EPS surprise among non-Tech stocks is also tracking at +100bp vs the LT trend.Share price reactions (relative to SPW) to earnings misses have been close to average thisreporting season, while relative reactions to beats have been lackluster. In our view, thissuggests that returns over the last few weeks have been largely beta-driven and are the resultof improving overall sentiment rather than company-specific results.4 ••• FIGURE 9. Share price reactions (relative to SPW) to earnings misses have been close to average thisreporting season, while relative reactions to beats have been lacklusterData as of 5/16/2025Source: Bloomberg, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research•Blended EPS growth in 25Q1 is tracking above the LT average for Healthcare and TMT(including Big Tech), and below the LT average for most other sectors. Y/Y EPS growth isnegative for Materials and the Consumer complex (ex-AMZN).FIGURE 10. Blended EPS growth in 25Q1 is tracking above the LT average for Healthcare and TMT(including Big Tech), and below the LT average for most other sectors11.5%26.2%15.6%6.5%-11.1%45.7%20.8%19.1%10.3%6.5%2.9%2.2%0.6%-3.9%-5.6%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%Blended EPS Growth (25Q1)EPS y/y20y MedianBlended calculations combine reported actual results with forecasts for those yet to report. Data as of 5/16/2025Source: Bloomberg, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research •Y/Y profit margin expansion has been strong for Big Tech and Healthcare, and marginalelsewhere. Profit margins contracted for Energy and the Consumer sectors (ex-AMZN).FIGURE 13. Y/Y profit margin expansion has been strong for Big Tech and Healthcare, and marginalelsewhereData as of 5/16/2025Source: Bloomberg, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research•Street consensus for SPX FY25 EPS has fallen by nearly -4% YTD (from $274 to $264), and isconver