CTS Eventim第一季度业绩由现场娱乐业务驱动

F26E26.926.8111.70104.00(7)%Dec1.5%10,7239,24012M38.210.527.7 RatingOutperformPrice TargetEVD.GRReported EPSEVD.GR (EUR)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.1Q results marked by better revenues in Live EntertainmentCTS Eventim reported 1Qrevenues of €498.6m, up 22% and beat consensus expectations led by Live Entertainment.Adj. EBITDA for the quarter reached €100.3m, up 9% and equivalent to a 20.1% margin.This was a consensus miss though of 6% (Full result table next page). The group sold 40.5mretail tickets in 1Q (up from 28.5m the prior year) explained predominantly by consolidationeffects. YTD shares are up 36% as the company turns out to be one of the most recessionproof media names in our coverage. The group holds its first 1Q conference call today at 4pmUK time.FY results reiteratedThe group guides to moderate revenue and adj EBITDA growth for theFY (this implies 5-15% growth according to management comments). It expects to extractsynergies from France Billet as well, as per comments on the FY24 call, despite not havingcommunicated a number.Reiterate OutperformWe reiterate our Outperform as we a) expect supportive pricing tokeep on driving the top-line, b) the rollout of fan sale to drive margin and c) M&A to drivesynergies ahead of plan. Our €104 TP is still based on a 50/50 DCF/multiples-based SOTP.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 22 May 2025 05:49 UTC Completion Date: 22 May 2025 05:49 UTC 104.00 EURF26E4.15FinancialsAdjusted EPSRevenues (M)Reported net incomeEBITDA (incl income fromassociates) F24AF25E3.323.74F24AF25EF26ECAGR3.503.764.16--2,8093,0493,256--350.56391.06429.65--542.2602.6662.5--Close DateEDMFYEDiv YieldEV (EUR) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)EDM (%)Relative (%)€120€110€100€90€8005/24 RECENT REPORTS23 Apr 2025 - Top 7 Learnings & CTS Eventim read-x from StubHub IPO filings11 Apr 2025 - Weekend Media Blast: Superfan Economics 10111 Apr 2025 - European Media: The Art of Pricing Recession Risk28 Mar 2025 - CTS Eventim FY did not come with many surprises5 Feb 2025 - CTS Eventim: Seasonality swings may lead to a bumpy roadEUROPEAN MEDIA INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe rate CTS Eventim Outperform.BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingEVD.GROEUREDMO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.EUROPEAN MEDIA I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYCTS EventimOur €104 target price is derived 50/50 from a DCF and a multiple-based SOTP. For the DCF, we use a WACC of 8.0% and along-term growth rate of 3.0%. For our multiple SOTP we use recent transaction multiples with premiums for size and marketleadership. We apply a small discount to Live Entertainment division to reflect promotion business' volatility vs Ticketing.RISKSCTS EventimDownside risks: 1) Succession - K-P Schulenberg is >70 years and is founder and CEO 2) Excessive concert ticket pricessuppressing volumes significantly 3) governance deterioration 4) operating in imperfect market.RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTIONBernstein brandThe Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacificregion, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JP) for stocks listed on the Japanese exchanges,and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the