伊利斯：尼斯会议——外包和运营效率推动EBITDA利润率提升

F25EF26E11.110.8 BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRecommandationELIS.FPOEDMO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS(Suite de la page 1)Commentaires analyste.Notre opinion Surperformance sur Elis est renforcée après la conférence. Nous sommes confiantsdans la capacité du groupe à atteindre sa guidance annuelle et à long terme. Plus important, notre recommandation est renforcéepar le nouveau plan d’allocation du capital et de désendettement et l’intention d’Elis de réaliser des acquisitions complémentaires.Nous estimons que le groupe devrait donner plus de détails sur l’efficacité de son modèle économique et les qualités de son réseaulors de la Journée investisseurs. Concernant la politique américaine de droits de douane et la faiblesse potentielle de l’économie,Elis ne sera pas complétement épargné en cas de ralentissement macroéconomique général même si son modèle économique adéjà démontré sa forte résistance à plusieurs occasions, notamment lors de la crise de 2009.Argumentaire d’investissementRecommandation Surperformance et objectif de cours de 27.5€ maintenus.En cas de divergence entre la version anglaise et la version française, la version anglaise prévaut.EUROPEAN BUSINESS SERVICES 2 I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYElisOur EUR27.5 price target is the equal-weighted rounded average of three valuations derived from our estimates for 2026: a DCF(€29.3– inputting a 10y bond yield of 3.32%, a risk premium of 6.14%, based on the average for France, Europe, the UK andLatAm, a beta of 1x and an annual EBITDA margin of 33.0%), an average EV/EBIT multiple of 12.6x (€30.7), and a FCF yield of6.0% (€22.2).RISKSElisDownside: 1) Higher labour cost inflation might affect the EBITDA margin and therefore the valuation. 2) A recession scenariocould dent top-line growth and therefore EBITDA and FCF generation. 3) A higher leverage ratio (1.7x at end-2025e) thananticipated could limit the company’s acquisition strategy, hurting investor perception and therefore our risk premium. 4) Inabilityto pass on price increases would dent our OSG forecasts. 1% OSG has a 6.0% impact on our price target everything else beingequal, while a 20bp change in the EBITDA margin has a 1.5% impact. 5) A big acquisition in the US for example could stronglydeteriorate the risk profile and therefore our risk premium.RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTIONBernstein brandThe Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacificregion, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JP) for stocks listed on the Japanese exchanges,and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan)exchanges -unless otherwise specified.The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings:•Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp•Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp•Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 ppCoverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targetsare suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should therefore not be relied upon.Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accuratelypredicted, at the present time. The covering analyst