全球酒店与休闲2025年第一季度在线旅游代理商(OTAs)艰难的回归之旅
The key debate entering 25Q1 reporting was demand — February traffic data looked soft,and the disruption from ‘Liberation Day’ and the potential impact on consumer spendingwas a clear overhang in sentiment, and OTA stocks suffered through March and April.Therefore, investors were primed for any commentary on demand slowness. However, allbut Expedia managed to deliver a revenue beat for Q1, and every OTA beat on EBITDA,while messaging over short term demand softness in the US was less severe than manyfeared. TRIP maintained its FY guidance, BKNG only widened its guidance range at thebottom end, while ABNB indicated a moderation in booking trends is likely, but wereoptimistic about bookings returning as uncertainty reduces, and indicated close in bookingsremain strong. The odd one out was EXPE, the most US exposed OTA, which reduced itsFY bookings guidance range by 200bps, while also missing on top line growth in Q1 asits B2C revenues shrank by 1.5%. EXPE’s poor performance on demand has largely beentaken as an idiosyncratic issue, with B2C underperformance relative to peers nothing new,while lodging and cruise companies have also provided relatively reassuring updates on theresilience of demand. As a result OTA stocks have done a round trip through Q1 earnings —with valuations and share prices mostly back in line with where they were before ‘LiberationDay’ uncertainties.Demand has held up.The key issue in the Q was demand — and while there were pocketsof softness, commentary was relatively positive. The biggest area of weakness was USinbound demand: Expedia called out a 7% drop in booking value into the US, while ABNBand BKNG both called out softness into the US, but emphasized demand was beingdiverted elsewhere — with Europeans traveling more inside the continent, while Canadianswhere instead choosing to travel to Central / South America, emphasizing the importancein geographical diversification. A recurring theme was also the bifurcation in demand —high end / high ADR travel demand was called out as robust, while lower end demand wasrelatively weaker, a surprise to some. Commentary on the booking window was more mixed:BKNG called out an expanding booking window, while ABNB noted stronger close in thanlonger lead time bookings — EXPE likely explained the balance, noting expanding windowsin hotels, but shortening windows in VR.What to do with the stocks from here.Going forward short term concerns over demandwill likely continue to drive OTA share price performance, but with a slightly less volatilemacroeconomic backdrop we would look to those with idiosyncratic upside beyonddemand. Here we retain our Outperform ratings on ABNB and TRIP: ABNB has nowissued its summer release, and the debate on the scalability and impact of Experiences /Services will be core to the story, but consensus still has nothing to reflect the two newbusiness lines, which are expected to contribute $1bn+ of revenue over the next 3-5years (Airbnb: Hair-bnb? - What could Services add?.& Airbnb: Take aways from our CFOroadshow), the target looks achievable could add 1-2% to revenue/booking growth notyet in consensus, and would require only one service / experience booked per 10 nightsbooked, or an attachment rate per guest of 3-4%. Similarly, for TRIP we see consensusas poorly reflecting the impact of the Liberty Tripadvisor transaction on share count, andexpect EPS upside as a result, while the current 5X EV/EBITDA multiple allows for a veryimpactful cash returns story even while the more exciting/high growth aspect of thebusiness (Viator) scales. www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingEXPEMOLDABNBOOLDBKNGMOLDTRIPOOLDSPXPRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLDO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe rate Airbnb and Tripadvisor Outperform, Booking and Expedia Market-Perform. We update our target prices, taking downour valuation multiples to reflecting lower market wide valuations.Post 1Q company notes:Airbnb 1Q25: Nearing the end of the rainbowBKNG 1Q25: Trip of a lifetime, but rained on the way to the airportExpedia 1Q25: Exped-iarmus - turnaround disarmedTripadvisor 1Q25: Raining in Cancun, sunny in SeattleEXHIBIT 1:For all but Expedia share prices have ended up close to where they were pre ‘Liberation-Day’6570758085909510010511001 Mar 2508 Mar 2515 Mar 25Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysisGLOBAL HOTELS & LEISURE 22 Mar 2529 Mar 25Share price performance (indexed to 1/3/25)ABNB 05 Apr 2512 Apr 2519 Apr 25BKNGEXPE 26 Apr 2503 May 2510 May 2517 May 25TRIP DETAILSWHAT IS HAPPENING TO DEMAND / THE BOOKING WINDOW?Across the OTAs demand patterns have seemed relatively consistent — the US has been slightly softer, with the high-endholding up better, and international into the US has been diverted elsewhere. Commentary on booking windows across the OTAshas diverged — EXPE pointed to
