在线旅游代理商（OTA）营销效率分析支持Booking Holdings（BKNG）的利润率扩张

USA | Internet Analysis of OTA Marketing Efficiency SupportsMargin Expansion at BKNG Marketing strategy will play an increasing role in determining the trajectory ofOTA margins, especially as Gen AI continues to evolve the digital advertisinglandscape. Our deep dive suggests marketing efficiency is a tailwind to marginsfor BKNG and a headwind for EXPE, driven primarily by differing trajectories formerchandising. We remain Hold on both names, given conclusions from ourmarketing efficiency analysis appear reflected in current multiples. Not all marketing strategies are created equal:We define marketing efficiency as the amount ofbusiness-to-consumer (B2C) lodging GBV generated for every dollar spent on both merchandisingand B2C marketing (excluding personnel). We estimate BKNG's marketing efficiency is currently40% above EXPE's, which is up from a 25% premium in 2019, as BKNG front-loaded customeracquisition earlier in the pandemic recovery to capture a greater share of returning travelers. Weexpect BKNG's lead in marketing efficiency to widen further in the next 3 yrs, as EXPE invests inmerchandising behind the One Key loyalty program and marketing to help revive Vrbo/Hotels.com.Our analysis causes us to raise/lower our '26 EBITDA est's for BKNG/EXPE to modestly above/below consensus. EXPE remains in investment mode...We estimate One Key increases EXPE's merchandising asa % of B2C lodging GBV by ~30 bps relative to the prior loyalty program. Key drivers are greaterdiscounts at brand Expedia (~30 bps) and new loyalty members at Vrbo (15 bps), partly offsetby a reduction in discounts at Hotels.com (15 bp offset). We model ~10 bps of annual increasesin merchandising through 2027 to account for One Key, which combines w/ ~15 bps of annualmarketing deleverage (~100 bps of total Revenue) from faster growth in B2B. The result is 2%downside to 2026 consensus EBITDA from minimal margin expansion. We also model nearly in-line GBV, which we think could prove aggressive given a recent slowdown in B2B and continuationof subdued B2C lodging growth (est ~3% y/y avg in past 4 quarters). Source: Company data, Jefferies ...While BKNG enters harvest mode:Between 2019 and 2024, a ~120 bp increase in merchandisingas a percentage of B2C Lodging GBV has offset an ~110 bp decrease in B2C direct marketing. Themerchandising increase was facilitated by the introduction of a payment platform on Booking.comthat coincided w/ a strategic push to capture more of the post-pandemic travel recovery. With theramp in customer acquisition now largely completed, we model flat merchandising through 2027and ~10 bps of annual marketing leverage (~40 bps of total Revenue). The result is nearly 50%incremental EBITDA margins and 100 bps of annual margin expansion (2% upside to 2026 consEBITDA). Adjust estimates/PTs to reflect trajectory of marketing efficiency:We raise our BKNG PT to$5,500 (22x 2026 GAAP P/E) to reflect our marketing efficiency analysis. Despite our favorableconclusions, we remain Hold given BKNG's attractive fundamental trajectory appears captured bya near-peak multiple, with the current 26x NTM P/E standing 20% above the 10-year average. Wekeep our EXPE PT unchanged at $160 (12x 2026 GAAP P/E) as slightly lower estimates are offsetby higher peer multiples. We remain Hold as potential margin pressure from worsening marketingefficiency appears captured by EXPE's peer-low valuation. John Colantuoni * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8634 | jcolantuoni@jefferies.com Christopher Suchecki * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8402 | csuchecki@jefferies.com Vincent Kardos * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8569 | vkardos@jefferies.com Seth Cho * | Equity Associate+1 (917) 344-1856 | scho4@jefferies.com Brent Thill * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1559 | bthill@jefferies.com Summary of Changes Not all marketing is created equal:We define marketing efficiency as the amount of business-to-consumer (B2C) lodging bookings generated for every dollar spent on both merchandising and B2Cmarketing (excluding personnel). We estimate BKNG's marketing efficiency is currently ~40% aboveEXPE's, which is up from a 25% premium in 2019, as BKNG tapered the pace of marketing investmentsin '23/'24 when EXPE was investing behind Vrbo/international and its loyalty program. We expectBKNG's marketing efficiency lead to widen in the next 3 yrs, as its focus on greater direct trafficcombines with roughly flat merchandising as a percent of Gross Bookings. Meanwhile, we expectinvestments in loyalty and merchandising at EXPE to limit marketing efficiency upside. Our analysiscauses us to modestly raise our '26 EBITDA estimate for BKNG to 2% above consensus and lower ourEXPE '26 EBITDA to 2% below consensus. BKNG'sfront-loaded marketing/merchandising provides more opportunities for leverage oncustomer acquisition:We think BKNG's decision to spend more aggressively on Marketing +Merchandising during the early pandemic recovery is allowing it to reap the benefits of customer