莱茵集团（RWE GR）：依靠稳健的执行实现两位数的每股收益增长

Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(EUR)40.00SHARE PRICE(EUR)33.39(as of20 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(EURm)24,837Market cap (USDm)28,0233m ADTV (USDm)108FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(EUR)Year to12/2024aHSBC EPS3.12HSBC EPS (prev)3.12Change (%)0.0Consensus EPS3.00PE (x)10.7Dividend yield (%)3.3EV/EBITDA (x)5.1ROE (%)7.052-WEEK PRICE(EUR)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesMeike Becker*Head of European Utilities &RenewablesHSBC Bank plcmeike.becker@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 6441Charles Swabey*Analyst, European Utilities & RenewablesHSBC Bank plccharles.swabey@hsbc.com+44 20 3268 3954Kartik Chourasiya*AssociateBangalore* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesMulti-UtilitiesGermany05/2411/24Target price: 40.00 ◆◆◆ PREVIOUS TARGET(EUR)40.00UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+19.8%Free floatBBGRIC12/2025eHigh: 35.64 Low: 28.14 Current: 33.39 Find out more93%RWE GRRWEG.DE12/2026e12/2027e2.312.593.042.542.583.03-9.00.40.32.172.443.0114.412.911.03.63.94.56.66.15.64.95.36.026.0034.0042.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025eProfit & loss summary(EURm)Revenue24,22422,286EBITDA5,6804,908Depreciation & amortisation-2,119-2,181Operating profit/EBIT3,5612,727Net interest-466-493PBT3,0952,234HSBC PBT3,0952,234Taxation-619-439Net profit2,3221,643HSBC net profit2,3221,643Cash flow summary(EURm)Cash flow from operations5,8884,524Capex-10,231-5,861Cash flow frominvestment-9,712-5,861Dividends-818-852Change in net debt4,9403,289FCF equity-4,343-1,337Balance sheet summary(EURm)Intangible fixed assets10,25010,250Tangiblefixed assets38,45842,138Current assets33,05132,351Cash & others11,94111,941Total assets98,440101,420Operating liabilities24,41024,410Gross debt18,67021,959Net debt4,1157,404Shareholders' funds33,62333,314Invested capital45,40848,388Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025eY-o-y % changeRevenue-15.2-8.0EBITDA-26.7-13.6Operating profit-38.6-23.4PBT-41.7-27.8HSBC EPS-43.3-25.9Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.50.5ROIC6.44.7ROE7.04.9ROA2.41.8EBITDA margin23.422.0Operating profit margin14.712.2EBITDA/net interest (x)12.210.0Net debt/equity12.222.2Net debt/EBITDA (x)0.71.5CF from operations/net debt143.161.1Per share data(EUR)EPS Rep (diluted)3.122.31HSBC EPS (diluted)3.122.31DPS1.101.20Book value45.2246.94Financials & valuation:RWE EPSgrowthdriven by investmentsandshare-buybacksSource: Company data, HSBC estimatesCapex accelerates for renewablesSource: Company data, HSBCestimatesRenewables grow; Coal closesSource: Company data, HSBC estimates0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.020202022 2024 2026e2028e2030eEPS & DPS (EUR)RWE EPS adj., DPS & payout ratioEPS adjDPSpayout ratio020004000600080001000012000202020212022202320242025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030eRWE Capex net, EURmFlexibleGxOnshorewind/solarOffshorewind0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.0202020212022202320242025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030eRWE generation capacity(GW)SolarOffshoreOnshoreNuclearHydroBatteriesBiomassGasCoal Source: Company data, HSBC estimates3-3.5x net debt to EBITDA targetSource: Company data, HSBC estimatesConsensus vs HSBC vs GuidanceSource: Company data for guidance and consensus, HSBC estimates-2818283820192021 2023 2025e2027e2029eNet Debt (EUR bn)RWE economic net debt anddebt/EBITDANet debt/ assets (if negative)Net economic debt/EBITDAtarget of 3.0-3.5x4.006.008.0010.0020252027eRWE EBITDA, EURbn For moredetails:Buy: Green growth and capital discipline(02 Apr 2025)Buy: Strong end to 2024(30 Jan 2025)Buy: Share buyback-strength and weakness(14 Nov 2024)ValuationTo value RWE, we use SOTP (75% weight) and dividend yield (25% weight) toarrive at our TP of EUR40 (unchanged).We use a target dividend yield of 3.75%, derived from a risk free rate of 3.75%(all unchanged). We use risk free rate as a minimum expectation on yields/return from investor, as expectations are not high from grids or integrated.In our SOTP for DCF valuations, we assume a risk-free rate of 3.75%(unchanged) and country-specific equity risk premiums. We value the onshorerenewables business using a combination of DCF for existing assets and anIRR methodology complemented with a spread over WACC of 125bp(unchanged) fornew business. We value offshore wind assets using IRRmodels for new assets to 2035. For 2036-40 and 2041-50 capacity we useNPV/capex multiples of4%(previously 5%)and2%(previously 4%),respectively. We value the Retailand Trading business using a DCFmethodology using CoE. We value conventional generation using DCF with anadditional premium mark-up of 1ppt on WACCs given the higher beta and risks.We maintain our TP of EUR40(unchanged), which implies c19.8% upside andwe maintain our Buy rating on the stock. We see long-term value in RWE’srenewables growth plans despite risks.RWE: Valuation summaryRWE SOTPOffshoreOnshoreHydroBiomassConv. GxSupply, Trading, OtherEn