4月贸易不仅是提前装载，还可能是重新路由

Restricted - External Brian Tan+65 6308 5798brian.tan@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeHongying Liu+65 6308 5310hongying.liu@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore FIGURE 3. Export growth (% m/m sa; Barclays estimates)Note: Only the headline export figure isofficial– the rest are Barclays estimates.Source: Department of Statistics, CEIC, S&P Global Market Intelligence, Barclays ResearchDetails: April tradeExportsIn MYR terms, theofficialpress release highlighted that exports rose by 5.3% m/m sa inApril, more than reversing its 2.3% contraction in March.•The sequential expansion was broadly based in April. We estimate a 5.5% m/m sa increase inexports of electrical & electronics products, holding upaftera 6.0% expansion in March.•On an annual basis, the sequential expansion combined with a favourable baseeffectresulted in headline export growth jumping to 16.4% y/y in April from 6.8% in March. Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25-1.92.3-2.35.3-2.02.8-0.85.0-3.83.66.05.5-3.6-5.1-21.112.94.02.7-16.34.7-9.1-7.3-2.810.8-2.03.0-1.75.2-14.4-41.4-1.054.7 2 ImportsTheofficialpress release also noted a 19.8% m/m sa expansion in April imports, more thanreversing the 7.4% contraction in March and more than outpacing exports.•Excluding imports for the purpose of re-exports and imports of fuels and lubricants – whichhave been relatively volatile – we estimate core retained imports also expanded notablyaftercontracting in March. Core capital goods and intermediate goods were the key drivers.•In y/y terms, imports also surged by 20.0% in April, following a 2.9% contraction in March,helped not just by the outsized sequential expansion but also a favourable baseeffectas withexports. 3 Source: Department of Statistics, CEIC, S&P Global Market Intelligence, BarclaysResearch20 May 2025 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Brian Tan and Hongying Liu, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or allof the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly relatedto the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesregularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securities that are thesubject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). Barclays trading desks may have either a long and / or short position in such securities,other financial instruments and / or derivatives, which may pose a conflict with the interests of investing customers. Where permitted and subject toappropriate information barrier restrictions, Barclays fixed income research analysts regularly interact with its trading desk personnel regardingcurrent market conditions and prices. Barclays fixed income research analysts receive compensation based on various factors including, but notlimited to, the quality of their work, the overall performance of the firm (including the profitability of the Investment Banking Department), theprofitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of the firm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset classcovered by the analyst. To the extent that any historical pricing information was obtained from Barclays trading desks, the firm makes norepresentation that it is accurate or complete. All levels, prices and spreads are historical and do not necessarily represent current market levels, pricesor spreads, some or all of which may have changed since the publication of this document. Barclays Research Department produces various types ofresearch including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations andtrade ideas contained in one type of Barclays Research maydifferfrom those contained in other types of Barclays Research, wh