九号公司（689009 CH）买入投资者日要点

Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities LimitedView HSBC Qianhai Securities Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(CNY)PREVIOUS TARGET(CNY)73.0073.00SHARE PRICE(CNY)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE63.85+14.3%（as of15 May 2025）MARKET DATAMarket cap(CNYm)45,788Free floatMarket cap (USDm)6,353BBG3m ADTV (USDm)76RICFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(CNY)Year to12/2024a12/2025e 12/2026eHSBC QH EPS1.512.53HSBC QH EPS prev1.512.53Change (%)0.00.0Consensus EPS1.662.34PE (x)42.225.2Dividend yield (%)1.71.3EV/EBITDA (x)28.518.9ROE (%)18.727.352-WEEK PRICE(CNY)Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC Qianhai Securities estimatesLi Quan* (Reg. No. S1700520030002)Analyst, A-Share Consumer SectorHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedli.quan@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 755 8898 3471Katharine Song* (Reg. No. S1700517120001)Head of A-share Consumer ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedkathy.l.h.song@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 21 5066 2007* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesHousehold DurablesChina05/2411/24Target price: 73.00High: 65. 30 Low: 36.38 Current: 63.85 ◆◆◆ 60%689009 CH689009.SS12/2027e3.494.463.494.460.03.174.1718.314.31.813.430.931.231.0054.5078.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eProfit & losssummary(CNYm)Revenue14,19620,11324,869EBITDA1,4272,2443,091Depreciation & amortisation-208-215-264Operating profit/EBIT1,2192,0292,826Net interest100109124PBT1,3192,1382,950HSBCQianhaiPBT1,3192,1382,950Taxation-234-321-443Net profit1,0841,8162,507HSBC Qianhainet profit1,0841,8162,507Cash flow summary(CNYm)Cash flow from operations3,354-2702,289Capex-545-600-600Cash flow from investment-2,462-600-600Dividends-200-801-605Change in net debt-3831,803-952FCF equity2,809-8701,689Balance sheet summary(CNYm)Intangible fixed assets894839785Tangiblefixed assets2,0082,5813,105Current assets12,40111,48912,109Cash & others4,8393,0363,988Total assets15,67815,28516,373Operating liabilities9,3837,9737,159Gross debt616161Net debt-4,778-2,975-3,927Shareholders' funds6,1567,1729,073Invested capital1,0823,9014,852Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eY-o-y % changeRevenue38.941.723.6EBITDA83.757.237.7Operating profit110.466.439.3PBT105.962.038.0HSBC QianhaiEPS81.367.538.0Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)18.78.15.7ROIC132.269.254.9ROE18.727.330.9ROA8.211.815.9EBITDA margin10.111.212.4Operating profit margin8.610.111.4EBITDA/net interest (x)Net debt/equity-76.6-41.0-42.9Net debt/EBITDA (x)-3.3-1.3-1.3CF from operations/net debtPer share data(CNY)EPS Rep (diluted)1.512.533.49HSBC QianhaiEPS (diluted)1.512.533.49DPS1.120.841.16Book value8.5810.0012.65Financials & valuation:Ninebot Ltd Updates on product offeringsWe visited Ninebot’s all-terrain vehicle (ATV), scooter and e2W factories and exchanged viewswith management.Thefull range of productsdisplayedby Ninebot atthe Investor Daydemonstratescleartechnical andproduction synergies. For example, motor systems, operatingsystems and intelligent functions areallused in different products, reflectingthe company’stechnologystrengthand R&D capabilities.Exhibit 1. e2WsSource: Ninebot, HSBC QianhaiSecuritiesNote: The first one and the second one from the right are Q3 (startingat RMB4,799) and Qz MIX (co-branded withEggy Party,startingatRMB3,599), respectively. These twonew models were launched recently.Exhibit2. ElectricscootersSource: Ninebot, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesNote: The company’s third-generationscooterswith more smart functions(such as colour-screen navigation, traction control system, etc.) 3 Exhibit3. e-BikesSource: Ninebot, HSBC QianhaiSecuritiesNote: Xafari on the left (starting at USD2,399), Xyber on the right (starting at USD2,999).Ninebothas also developedvariant versions oftheAT10model (e.g.AT10WandAT10 MUD)to meet overseas demand, whichhave won the favour ofoverseas distributors.Exhibit4. ATVsSource: Ninebot, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesNote: AT10W (left), SX20T Hybrid (middle), UT6 (right). Valuation and risksWe continue to use a DCF model to value the stock. Wemaintainour target priceofRMB73,implying c14% upside from the current share price and c29x/21x 2025e/2026e PE. We maintainour Buy rating on the stock as we see positive growth prospects for all segments.Our key valuation assumptions include a WACC of 10.4%, based on a risk-free rate of 3.75%, amarket risk premium of 6.0%, and a beta of 1.1, as well as a perpetual growth rate of 2% (allunchanged).Exhibit5.Ninebot: DCF modelRMBm2022EBIT553Free cash flow1,4481,729 2,723Perpetual growth rateWACCCost of debt after taxCost of equityRisk-free rateMarket risk premiumBetacoefficientOptimal capital structureSource: Company data, HSBC Qianhai Securities estimatesPotential share pricecatalysts◆Announcement of e2W sales volume milestones.Ninebot targets mid-to high-end e2Wconsumers, and we believe it should benefit from the product upgrade driven by stricterstandards. The company has be