中银航空租赁（2588 HK）买入为增长布局——投资者日的七个要点

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBankingCorporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsFind out moreMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(HKD)PREVIOUS TARGET(HKD)75.0075.00SHARE PRICE(HKD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE63.70+17.7%(as of26 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(HKDm)44,208Free floatMarket cap (USDm)5,642BBG2588 HK3m ADTV (USDm)7RIC2588.HKFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(USD)Year to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eHSBC EPS0.851.001.14HSBC EPS (prev)0.851.001.14Change (%)0.00.00.0Consensus EPS0.981.021.13PE (x)9.58.17.1Dividend yield (%)5.74.34.9EV/EBITDA (x)9.69.69.4ROE (%)9.810.611.252-WEEK PRICE(HKD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesParash Jain*Global Head of Transport & Logistics ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedparashjain@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6717Deepak Maurya*, CFAAnalyst, Asia TransportThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limiteddeepakmaurya@hsbc.com.hk+852 2822 4292Bruce Chu*, CFAAssociate, Asia TransportThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedbruce.y.h.chu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6621* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesDiversified Financial SrvcsSingapore51.0064.5078.0005/2411/2405/25Target price: 75.00High: 69.70 Low: 54.05 Current: 63.70 ◆◆◆ 30%1.311.310.01.216.25.79.312.0 2FinancialstatementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eProfit & loss summary(USDm)Revenue2,3872,4622,547EBITDA2,2302,2942,373Depreciation & amortisation-794-786-784Operating profit/EBIT1,4361,5081,590Net interest-728-725-694PBT1,039786899HSBC PBT708782896Taxation-116-90-105Net profit924696793HSBC net profit592693791Cash flow summary(USDm)Cash flow from operations1,8511,4031,542Capex-2,457-2,885-2,885Cash flow from investment-1,286-1,667-1,619Dividends-327-289-258Change in net debt-215553335FCF equity565-264-77Balance sheet summary(USDm)Intangible fixedassets000Tangible fixed assets23,19824,16625,084Current assets1,7271,7521,700Cash & others671668633Total assets25,05326,03826,904Operating liabilities1,3761,3251,263Gross debt16,58817,13917,439Net debt15,91716,47016,806Shareholders' funds6,3636,7697,305Invested capital22,89223,93924,903Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eY-o-y %changeRevenue8.33.23.4EBITDA8.22.93.5Operating profit13.45.05.4PBT20.8-24.414.4HSBC EPS7.117.114.1Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.10.10.1ROIC5.65.75.7ROE9.810.611.2ROA6.45.25.3EBITDA margin93.493.293.2Operating profit margin60.161.262.4EBITDA/net interest (x)3.13.23.4Net debt/equity250.2243.3230.1Net debt/EBITDA (x)7.17.27.1CF from operations/net debt11.68.59.2Per share data(USD)EPS Rep (diluted)1.331.001.14HSBC EPS (diluted)0.851.001.14DPS0.470.350.40Book value9.179.7510.53Financials & valuation:BOC Aviation Seven key takeaways from BOCA investor dayTakeaway No.1–Robust aircraft demand outlook–near-term andstructural long termGlobal passenger travel demand in almost all markets is now back above the pre-pandemiclevels.BOCA noted that while there are some pockets of softening demand, most airlinecustomers reported strong demand outlook. In the near-term, suchimproving traffic outlookalongside a sharp increase in airline profitability has fuelled a strong demand for aircraft.In fact,the IATA expects global airline profits of USD37bn, the second highest following the record levelof USD38bn achieved in 2017. Following the UStariffs, while uncertainty has increased, fuelprices and USD have declined further supporting airline profitability.1. Global air passenger traffic grew 3.3%y-o-yin March-25 driven by Asia Pacific2. Global air passenger traffic by region–LATAM and Caribbean grew 2x of worldgrowth (from 2019)Source: IATA, Company data. Note: % change March 2025 vs. March 2024Source: IATA, Company data. Note: % change March 2025 vs. March 2019Over a longer-term, BOCA expects increased penetration of air travel inpopulous regions ofAsia, mainly China and India, to continue to drive structural demand for aircraft. Boeingestimatesmore than40,000 new aircraft will be required for growth and replacement of agingfleet over the next 20 years, translating to nearly 2,000 aircraft per annum vs previous combinedpeak deliveries by Boeing and Airbus of 1,650 in 2018.3.New aircraft demand (2024-43)numberof aircraft(in000)and type4.New aircraft demand (2024-43) by region(%)Source: Boeing Commercial Market Outlook (2024-2043),company dataSource: Boeing Commercial Market Outlook (2024-2043),company data.Note:Eurasia comprises Central Asia and EuropeandAsia Pacific comprisesNortheast Asia, South East Asia, South Asia and Oceania.However, challenges with MRO capacity for maintenance of existing fleet and delays in ramp-upof aircraft delivery by OEMs has led to a very tight aircraft supply resulting in increasing leaserates and demand for leased aircraft.-1.1%-0.7%3.3%4.1%4.4%6.2%6.3%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%North AmericaMiddle EastWorldAfricaEuropeLATAM and CaribbeanA