生物制药维护说明-数据与关键问题

Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plcView HSBCGlobal Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsRajesh Kumar*Head, European Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Bank plcrajesh4kumar@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 1629Morten Herholdt*Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Bankplcmorten.herholdt@hsbc.com+ 44 20 7992 4082Yifeng Liu*Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Bank plcyifeng.liu@hsbc.com+44 20 7 9919355Sidharth Sahoo*Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedsidharth.sahoo@hsbc.co.in+91 77 3813 4135Sezgi Oezener*, CFAAnalyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Continental Europe SA, Germanysezgi.oezener@hsbc.de+49 211 9103290Shubhangi Gupta*, Ph.D.Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedshubhangi.gupta@hsbc.co.in+91 80 4555 2143YessicaSanchez*Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, GrupoFinanciero HSBCyessica.sanchez@hsbc.com.mx+55 52 8551 7904Floria Tosca KerekesAnalyst, Life Sciences &HealthcareHSBC Bank plcfloria.tosca.kerekes@hsbc.com+44 20 3268 4667* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesHealthcareDevelopedMarkets ◆◆◆ We modestly adjust our target prices for Eli Lilly, Pfizer,and Biogen following model updates.Estimate revisions:We update our models for Q1 results, pipeline updates,as wellasFX(tothecurrent spot rate ofUSD/EUR1.12).Our J&J estimates are unchanged; hence we exclude from the table below.Estimate revisions_HSBCe new rev (bn)____HSBCe old rev (bn)____% change_______HSBCe new EPS_______HSBCe old EPS__________% change_______CompanyTickerCur2025e2026e 2027e2025e2026e2027e2025e2026e 2027e2025e2026e2027e2025e2026e2027e2025e2026e2027eAbbvie IncABBV USUSD59.363.767.959.463.867.20%0%1%12.1213.6515.0012.0413.5614.771%1%2%Amgen IncAMGN USUSD35.335.136.434.435.236.73%0%-1%21.7922.3523.8120.7521.9123.395%2%2%AstraZenecaAZN LNGBP57.060.263.757.660.563.8-1%-1%0%8.9810.1311.338.7610.0911.343%0%0%Biogen IncBIIB USUSD9.39.29.39.19.09.13%2%2%15.0215.9316.0615.2815.5015.66-2%3%3%Eli Lilly & CoLLY USUSD59.271.580.760.570.080.0-2%2%1%21.0027.3633.4821.5927.5433.38-3%-1%0%GSKGSK LNGBP32.834.435.533.234.936.0-1%-1%-2%1.711.881.951.701.891.931%0%1%Novartis AGNOVN SWUSD54.754.855.053.053.153.93%3%2%8.477.938.077.947.697.907%3%2%Novo NordiskNOVOB DC DKK332.8403.0460.4339.0413.8465.7-2%-3%-1%26.5333.8939.2127.5235.5839.80-4%-5%-1%Pfizer IncPFE USUSD62.762.561.463.963.262.2-2%-1%-1%2.982.982.903.053.012.94-2%-1%-1%Source: HSBC ResearchHSBCevs consensus__HSBCe revenue (bn)__Consensus revenue (bn)__vs consensus_____HSBCe EPS_______Consensus EPS____vs consensus_CompanyTickerCur202520262027CAGR202520262027CAGR20252026 202720252026 2027 CAGR20252026 2027 CAGR20252026 2027AbbvieABBV USUSD59.363.767.97%59.964.969.58%-1%-2%-2%12.1213.65 15.00 11%12.2113.91 15.42 12%-1%-2%-3%AmgenAMGN USUSD35.335.136.42%35.235.936.62%0%-2%-1%21.7922.35 23.81 5%20.8121.46 22.43 4%5%4%6%AstraZenecaAZN LNGBP57.060.263.76%57.961.565.06%-1%-2%-2%8.9810.13 11.33 12%9.0810.22 11.30 12%-1%-1%0%BiogenBIIB USUSD9.39.29.30%9.39.19.1-1%1%1%2%15.0215.93 16.06 3%14.7515.41 16.03 4%2%3%0%Eli LillyLLY USUSD59.271.580.717%59.771.582.918%-1%0%-3%21.0027.36 33.48 26%21.8229.64 36.31 29%-4%-8%-8%GSKGSK LNGBP32.834.435.54%32.434.135.55%1%1%0%1.711.88 1.957%1.661.84 1.999%3%3%-2%J&JJNJ USUSD91.894.998.43%91.395.199.54%1%0%-1%10.6911.30 12.28 7%10.6111.11 11.86 6%1%2%4%NovartisNOVN SWUSD54.754.855.00%53.654.656.12%2%0%-2%8.477.93 8.07-2%8.689.02 9.555%-2%-12%-15%Novo NordiskNOVOB DC DKK332.8403.0 460.4 18%337.9390.5 434.8 13%-2%3%6%26.5333.89 39.21 22%26.7631.64 35.58 15%-1%7%10%PfizerPFE USUSD62.762.561.4-1%62.562.261.1-1%0%1%0%2.982.98 2.90-1%3.003.08 3.071%-1%-3%-5%Source: HSBC Research, Bloomberg RisksDownside risks:1) Materially faster erosion of Humirathan currently expected; 2) Skyrizi and Rinvoq clinicalreadouts in additional indications are unsuccessful; 3)management changes lead to big strategic changemaking the company inward looking;4)emraclidinefuture development path turns out to a dead end;5)increased competition in autoimmune space limitsSkyrizi and Rinvoq from achieving management targetpeak sales potential; and6)cyclical headwinds inaesthetics space drive earnings downgrade. Results preview/post-results commentQ1 results review:The company will invest slightly more in R&D than guided atthe full year but guidance is otherwise unchanged. Thequarter was flattered by the timing of R&D and early stronguptake of new biosimilars but with a reversal of both expectedin Q2. While encouraginguptake of growth drivers Evenity,Blincyto,and Imdelltra was seen,broad weakness across theHorizon portfolio again highlights lowered visibility on whenthe rare disease portfolio will deliver on expected growth. 15-19% sales