当心“净零”死亡率和发病率！

1January 2025 Beware “net-zero” mortality and morbidity!Threeclimate-related risksthe webinarconsideredwere:1.Physical:The keyphysicalclimate-relatedrisks are heat,cold,air pollution, wildfires, storms,floodsanddroughts.For temperate climes,the overall picture isrelativelybenign and suggests modest mortalityimpacts. However,thishigh-levelviewhides a complexsetof interactions andpotential for localised,compounding effects.Datais also a significantchallenge.Whilst we often attribute cold as a mortality factor,we may be significantlyunderreporting heatimpacts.2.Transition:Transitionalefforts pull in different directions and in the long run may be positive.Compoundingfactors include theresilience ofinfrastructure underchangeddemand and weather;air pollutionwhichmaycome less fromtransport andindustrial sourcesbutmore from wildfires;andhealthier lifestyleswhich maybe encouragedbysocialfactorsbutmay beharderto attain due toinhospitable outdoor spacesandhighercost of nutritious foods.3.Systemic/macrorisks:Climateshocks and the green transitionwillhave significant macroeconomic effects.In the short to medium term, they are almost certain todriveup costs,reduceproductivityand increasethedemand on healthcare systems. Thiswillaffect the quantity and quality of healthcarethata state is able toafford. Theseimpactswill beexacerbatedby otherstrains on the economy such as ageing demographics,lower economic growth, climate immigrationand theavailability of skilled workers.So whatshouldinsurers donext?1.Understand the background and deepen yourknowledge:Thepanellistsstarted with an outline oftheeffects fromphysical risks, transitional risks, macroeconomic changes and business implications. We havesummarisedsome oftheircoreobservationsin the appendix.2.Understand the interconnections between your risks:Usecomplexity-basedanalysis to help identifytipping points and what potential early warning systems can be put in place. Develop a systems map of yourrisks and their interactions; this will help identify potential tipping points and “precursor” warnings, highlightingwhere a modest additional impact could have an outsized influence when a system is already stressed.3.Get a better picture of yourinsuranceportfolio:Usethe complexityanalysis toimprovetheintegration ofclimate-related risks into your insurance riskprofiles anddevelop a scenario framework that generatesbusiness-relevantimpacts.4.Get betterandmore agilewarning systems:Usethe scenario framework toconsidertheliability impactsthrough different sustainability pathways, determine relevant riskfactors and work back to develop datacollection and analysis to support those future needs.5.Implement preventive and mitigating measures:Considercustomer education and apps that may helpthem mitigate adverse health outcomes (adouble win). Broader efforts would include public-privateengagement and policy advocacy thatcan support public health, such as heatwave alerts andprovidingadviceon mitigatingsevere weather impacts.6.Identify opportunities:Parametrictoolswhich pay out immediatelyonce apredefined eventhasoccurredareone example of new product innovation that can retain affordability and meet new demands.These stepsmake it possible to convertthe“net-zero”trapinto a triplewin for insurers:better managed risks,morebusinessopportunities and better customer outcomes.The full ActuviewpanelrecordingonClimate Impacts on Mortality and Health Liabilitiesis availableathttps://actuview.com/videos/panel-1-climate-impacts-on-mortality-and-health-liabilities-4165. 2January 2025 Beware “net-zero” mortality and morbidity!3Four dimensions of climate change onmortality and health liabilitiesNotes from Panellist Comments1(references not independently verified)Impact of physical risks(comments from panellists)Heat and temperature-related mortality: Extreme heat exacerbates conditions such as cardiovascular andrespiratory diseases. Over the last20yearsstudies have shown therehas been a global reduction in cold-relatedexcess death ratios of 0.5%, partially offset by a 0.2% increase in heat-related excess death ratios. However, theoverall impact varies significantly by region, andotherresearch indicates that official records may significantlyunderestimate heat-related impacts.Air pollution: Air pollution, especially particulate matter (PM)2.5, poses significant health risks. Wildfires arean example ofasourceof itbeing intensified by climate change. Recent studies estimate that wildfire-relatedPM2.5 exposure causes approximately 100,000 deaths per year, with 13% of this mortality having beenattributed to the additional impacts of climate change.Floods and droughts:Floods and droughts are significant climate hazards, especially in low-incomeandmiddle-income countries. In addition to the direct effects, they can lead to waterborne diseases, malnutritionand mental health issues. Whilst global flood mortality has been reasonably stable sincethe1990s, themortality decline that has been witnessed in high-inco