酒店业最新动态

2Houlihan LokeyView on the MarketIt’s Not AboutValuation, It’sAbout DemandThe Middle IsSqueezed AgainWingstop has proven that for theright asset, where there is significantdemand, valuations are as highas ever.For the top-performing sector assets,we see valuations capable of matchinghistorical levels. For instance, wesuspect Dishoom, if and when it comesto market, will have plenty of suitorsand fetch a strong multiple.The challenge is that demand fallssharply below A* assets.(1)Then, itbecomes not a question of valuationbut whether there is a buyer, full stop.It is an age-old adage in the consumersector that, in tough times, the middleeventually gets squeezed the hardest.There is a flight to value, while luxuryinvariably survives.Gyms are probably the best example,but casual dining is catching up.Through no fault of its own, theindustry has had to push a lot ofprice to survive.As a result, a family going out for apizza lunch has seen it become anincreasingly expensive treat rather thana previously regular, affordable, andconvenient routine.This has been seen even more starkly indelivery where, outside of London,Monday to Thursday deliveries havedropped off a cliff as expense trumpsconvenience.Our thoughts on the key themes running through the market in 2024 and into 2025.Source: Market data.(1)A* asset refers to a top-tier or prime-quality asset, distinguished by high liquidity, stability, and strong returns. Unsurprisingly,Value Is KeyHarking back to Wingstop, youcould argue a combination offlavour, value and convenience isalways going to win in tough times.Indeed, QSR more broadly appears tobe a thematic winner right now and,as a result, is getting more attentionfrom investors.Similarly, Loungers’ consistentlystrong trading is undoubtedlyunderpinned by the fact that it offerseverything from all-day breakfast andcoffee to burgers and alcohol at verycompetitive prices.Right now, value seems like the safestharbour outside of iconic, high-enddestination restaurants. The ExperientialConundrumExperiential comes up in nearly all oursector discussions with investors.The opportunity is clear—mass appeal toa younger generation less fixated onalcohol and more on experiences andphoto-friendly events. The challengeevery one of these conversations endswith is two-fold: barriers to entry andfashion/fad risk.Outside of capex, what is the barrier toentry? There are now multiple operatorsof digital darts, shuffleboard, battingcages, etc., as well as canny operatorswho offer all the above and more underone roof.Investors are rightly wary of theboom/bust seen in trampolines and, to alesser degree, padel (at least in parts ofEurope). As a result, the sector seems tobe screaming out for consolidation,single-site multiformat, or a combinationof the two over the medium term. AuctionUnicornsFor all but the A* assets, the M&A auctionis a thing of the past, at least for now.Vast swathes of U.K. consumer assets,let alone leisure and hospitality, are available.How could they not be with so little M&Aoutside of a short-lived e-commerce IPOspurt in 2021?However, owners and advisors are rightlywary of sending out informationmemorandums and process letters. Instead, itis a world of under-the-counter sales, withdiscrete processes involving a handful ofinterested parties and significantly less rigidtimetables.The challenge is that, without set deadlinesand meaningful competitive tension,timetables lengthen, pricing softens, andbuyers procrastinate.Building a fan club has never been moreimportant; if you want to exit, preparationmust start at least 12 months in advance.It goes without saying that you also need anexperienced advisor who knows whereinterest lies and, just as importantly, where itdoes not. Timing and process managementhave never been more important. 1.8k0.6k2023European Other ConsumerEuropean Hospitality3M&A Is Returning to the SectorHoulihan Lokey ViewThere has been recovery in European consumer deals,including in the hospitality vertical (with deal volumesgrowing by 12% YoY).Geographically, the U.K. has seen the greatest improvementin hospitality M&A activity (+25%).Within casual dining, there remains significant pent-upsupply with many assets owned for much longer than thetypical three to four years by private equity and a raft ofstalled or failed sale mandates. Buyers are spoiled for choice.QSR remains more attractive; there are invariably buyers forclusters of franchise units or upcoming brands.Despite macro challenges,the hospitality M&Amarket is graduallyreturning, with high-valuedeals and opportunisticacquisitions fuelled bynew capital sources.Source: Mergermarket.Note: The deals on the right-hand siderepresent a selected set of transactions onlyfrom the U.K., European, and U.S. markets.European Consumer DealsVolume+12%+2% M&A Activity in the Hospitality Sector Is ImprovingH1 2023Elite RestaurantGroupH2 2023H1 2024H2 2024Christian Louboutinand Alexis Dyevre 1.8k0.7k2024 4Acquisition of Loungers by FortressA d