能源周报：中美经贸会谈顺利，伊核协议重大进展，本周油价先涨后跌

基础化工2025年05月18日推荐 （维持）证券分析师：杨晖邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360522050001证券分析师：吴宇邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360524010002证券分析师：陈俊新邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360525040001行业基本数据股票家数(只)489总市值(亿元)43,002.32流通市值(亿元)38,110.98相对指数表现%1M6M绝对表现6.3%-1.1%相对表现3.2%0.9%相关研究报告《基础化工行业周报（20250505-20250511）：本周烯草酮、Henry天然气、尿素价格涨幅居前》2025-05-12《化工行业新材料周报（20250505-20250511）：英国石油公司BP牵头更新SAF标准；本周电子级氮气、氧气涨价》2025-05-11《能源周报（20250505-20250511）：中东局势再次紧张，美英达成有限贸易协议，本周油价震荡运2025-05-1124/0524/0724/1024/1225/032024-05-20~2025-05-16基础化工沪深300华创证券研究所 行》-23%-10%3%15% 占比%0.064.324.8212M2.1%-4.8%25/05 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号目录一、投资策略.....................................................................................................................5（一）原油.........................................................................................................................5（二）动力煤.....................................................................................................................5（三）双焦.........................................................................................................................6（四）天然气.....................................................................................................................6（五）油服.........................................................................................................................7二、主要能源价格变化情况.............................................................................................7三、原油：供给有限叠加地缘冲突加剧，原油价格或将维持高位震荡.....................9四、供给变动赋予动力煤价格弹性，双焦在政策支持下有企稳预期.......................12（一）动力煤：港口去库艰难，动力煤价再次宽幅下行...........................................12（二）双焦：铁水见顶预期渐显，焦炭首轮提降.......................................................16五、天然气：供需失衡短期难破局，海内外气价分化加剧.......................................19六、油服：政策加码与高油价共振，油服行业景气回升...........................................23七、风险提示...................................................................................................................25 2 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号图表目录图表1本周华创化工行业指数79.16，环比+0.95%，同比-21.44%.................................7图表2行业价差百分位为过去10年的0.78%，环比-0.88%............................................8图表3本周布伦特原油价格上涨（美元/桶）....................................................................8图表4本周动力煤价格下行（元/吨）................................................................................8图表5本周能源价格涨跌汇总.............................................................................................8图表6 4月欧佩克原油产量环比下跌（百万桶/日）.......................................................10图表7上周美国原油产量环比上涨（百万桶/日）..........................................................10图表8美国原油产量增速与钻机活跃度关系...................................................................10图表9上周美国炼油开工率环比上行（%）....................................................................10图表10上周美国原油库存量上涨（百万桶）.................................................................10图表11上周美国汽油库存量下跌（百万桶）.................................................................10图表12本周Brent原油价格上涨（美元/桶）.................................................................11图表13本周WTI原油基金净多头持仓数量下滑............................................................11图表14本周秦皇岛港口煤均价环比-2.85%（元/吨）.....................................................13图表15本周坑口煤价格环比-3.21%（元/吨）.................................................................13图表16本周印尼煤Q3800价格环比-3.09%（元/吨）....................................................13图表17本周NewcastleQ6000环比+4.26% (美元/吨)......................................................13图表18本周煤炭沿海运价综合指数环比+3.34%.............................................................13图表19本周三峡水流量环比+31.55%（立方米/秒）......................................................13图表20本周环渤海九港库存环比+0.20%（万吨）.........................................................14图表21本周南方港口合计库存环比+1.61%（万吨）.....................................................14图表22本周煤炭重点电厂日耗量环比-7.98% (万吨)......................................................14图表23本周煤炭重点电厂库存可用天数环比+1.6天.....................................................14图表24本周日照准一价格环比持平（元/吨）................................................................17图表25本周山西港口主焦煤价格环比持平(元/吨)..........................................................17图表26本周焦煤样本钢厂库存环比+0.46%（万吨）.....................................................17图表27本周焦炭样本钢厂库存环比-1.08% (万吨)..........................................................17图表28本周焦煤港口库存环比-5.01%（万吨）..............................................................17图表29本周螺纹钢价格环比+1.59%（元/吨）................................................................17图表30本周247家钢厂日均铁水产量环比-0.41% (万吨)..............................................18图表31本周美国天然气库存增加（Bcf）........................................................................21图表32本周欧洲天然气库存增加（Bcf）........................................................................21图表33本周欧洲天然气价格上涨（美元/百万英热）....................................................21 3 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号4图表34本周国内LNG出厂价格下降（元/吨）..............................................................21图表35上周欧洲天然气进口量下