FY26为过渡年，需求前景强劲；维持买入

India | PharmaceuticalsPiramal Pharma FY26 a Transition Year, Demand OutlookStrong; Maintain Buy Piramal 4Q results were below our expectation as CDMO growth wasmodest at 8% YoY. FY26 guidance was subdued at mid-single digit growthand margin compression, however FY27 guidance indicated a strong highteens growth and ~200bps margin gains over FY25. Weak FY26 is dueto one time inventory normalization of key CDMO division product, butoverall demand outlook remains robust for the company. Maintain Buy withrevised PT INR260 (from INR310). CDMO growth moderation leads to miss:4QFY25 Revenue INR27.5bn (+8% YoY/+25% QoQ)was 4% below our estimate, EBITDA INR5.6bn (+6% YoY/+66% QoQ) was 4% below and PATINR1.5bn (+52% YoY) was 22% below on higher depreciation. Sales miss was primarily due tosales growth moderation in CDMO which up 8% YoY (7% miss) while complex hospital genericclocked 6% YoY growth (in-line) and India consumer healthcare sales was up 15% YoY (5%beat). EBITDA margin reached 20.4% (in-line our margin est) and were flattish YoY. Tough FY26 guidance, FY27 to be bounce back year:Piramal guided for mid-single digitgrowth in FY26 and EBITDA margin (including other income) at mid-teens; for FY27 Piramalexpects a bounce back with sales growth of high teens and EBITDA margin to reach 19-20%.For FY26, Piramal plans to incur capex of USD100-125m, including the recently announcedexpansion at Riverview and Lexington. Inventory normalization to impact FY26 CDMO performance:The slowdown in FY26 growthis due to inventory normalization for a meaningful product in CDMO segment. Excluding theproduct, Piramal expects other areas in CDMO to clock mid-teens growth and ICH and complexhospital generics will continue to maintain their growth momentum. Post the inventorynormalization at customer’s end in FY26, Piramal expects it to be back on growth path in FY27as the product ramp up in the end market is robust. Overall demand outlook strong in CDMO:Client conversation and orderbook build till 1Qindicates healthy demand outlook for Piramal. As per mgmt. highest inquiries are for overseasfacilities (Grangemouth, Riverview, Lexington) especially in ADC segment, followed by drugproduct demand for facilities located overseas as well as in India. Due to innovator excitementin ADC and high of demand for full package and integrated offering, Piramal has decided toexpand capacities at Riverview and Lexington (capex of USD90m). Maintain Buy with lower PT of INR260:Despite a modest FY26 guidance, Piramal continues tobe a high growth story and is available at modest valuation (~15x FY27 EV/EBITDA) and thuswe maintain our Buy rating. We cut our FY26/27 EBITDA estimates by 28%/11% to incorporatenew guidance. We value company using SoTP, CDMO EV at 18x FY27 EBITDA (vs 20x earlier),CHG EV at 12x FY27 EBITDA and India consumer healthcare EV at 3x FY27 sales with PT ofINR260. Alok Dalal * | Equity Analyst91 22 4224 6155 | adalal@jefferies.comDhawal Khut * | Equity Associate91 22 42246134 | dkhut@jefferies.com The Long View: Piramal Pharma Investment Thesis / Where We Differ CDMO growth to bounce back in FY27 after a hiatus in FY26Complex hospital generic and India consumer healthcare to clock lowteens/mid teens growthSharp margin expansion in FY27 Downside Scenario,INR190, -13% Upside Scenario,INR290, +32% Base Case,INR260, +19% Revenue growth of 9% during FY25-27E.EBITDA growth of 15% during FY25-26E.We value Piramal Pharma (ex Allergan JV) EVat 16x Mar-27E EBITDA with a price target ofINR190. Revenue growth of 11% during FY25-27E.EBITDA growth of 20% during FY25-27E.We value Piramal Pharma (ex Allergan JV) EVat 17x Mar-27E EBITDA with a price target ofINR260 Revenue growth of 13% during FY25-27E.EBITDA growth of 25% during FY25-27E.We value Piramal Pharma (ex Allergan JV) EVat 18x Mar-27E EBITDA with a price target ofINR290. Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top Material Issue(s):1) Business Model Resilience - With challenges in funding environmentin developed markets, several small and emerging pharma/bio-pharma companies are facingchallenges. Generic price erosion is currently high in the US, and in such challenging market conditionsit is essential to have the right business model to succeed and deliver shareholder returns. Capacity expansion high demand facilities likeRiverview, Aurora. Strong revenue growth and margin improvementled by CDMO. Company Targets:1) 30% women participation on the Board by FY25. 2) At least one ESG expert onthe Board by FY24. Commencement of India Sevoflurane capacity,debottlenecking at Bethlehem plant. Key Questions to Management:1) What proportion of the waste water is treated before beingreleased, and how do you plan to increase it? 2) Are ESG standards across various Indian and overseaslocations the same, and if not, by when can that be expected? ESG Sector Deep Dive: India Pharma Source: Company data, Jefferies Source: Company data, Jefferies Source: Company data, Jefferies Compa