领航控股（NVGS）：第一季度业绩超预期，尽管码头吞吐量疲软；批准5000万美元股票回购

USA | Maritime GroupNavigator Holdings 1Q Beat despite Soft Terminal Volumes;Authorizes $50 Million Share Buyback Navigator reported a 1Q earnings beat despite throughput at its ethyleneterminal dropping to its lowest level since inception, negatively impacted byhigh US ethylene prices. The terminal is expected to be much more active in2Q. The Board authorized a new $50 million share buyback and declared itsregular $0.05/sh dividend. It sold an older Handysize ship as part of its fleetmodernization initiative. We maintain our Buy rating and $18 price target. 1Q earnings beat expectations due to higher revenues:Navigator reported an adjusted EPS of$0.36, coming in above both consensus and our estimate of $0.30. Adjusted EBITDA of $72.8million also came in higher than consensus of $70.1 million and our $71.1 million forecast. Thebeat is mainly attributable to its higher than anticipated revenues, as its Handysize+ fleet earnedan average TCE of $30,476/day, higher than 4Q's rate of $28,428/day and our forecast of $27,000/day. Fleet utilization came in-line at 92.4%, compared to our 92% model and its 4Q figure of 92.2%. Active fleet renewal and new buyback program: As previously announced, Navigator's three17,000 cbm ethylene vessels delivered in 1Q; two of them delivered in February and the third inMarch. In May, it sold and delivered the 2000-built HandysizeNavigator Venusfor $17.5 million. TheBoard authorized a new $50 million share repurchase program. It plans to buy back $3.3 millionof stock before the end of 2Q and, when combined with its dividend declaration of $0.05/sh, itstotal capital allocation is consistent with the company's policy of distributing 25% of net incomefor the quarter. New facility to refinance 2025 maturity and give cushion:Navigator ended 1Q with $139.0 millionin liquidity, consisting of $91.0 million in cash and $48.0 million in restricted cash, with no revolveravailability. However, earlier this month it agreed on a new 6-year $300 million facility consisting ofa $230 million term loan and $70 million revolver. Navigator will repay $143.5 million outstandingunder its September 2025 maturing facility and $14.7 million outstanding under a facility due May2027. It will thus have $71.9 million under the term loan for general corporate purposes as well asthe $70 million revolver. Accordingly, its pro forma liquidity jumps from $139 million at quarter-endto $280.9 million. Management continues to evaluate raising additional debt to refinance its $128million terminal expansion project, which was funded from Navigator's cash reserves. Maintain Buy rating and $18 price target: Navigator's ethylene export terminal throughput totaledjust 85,553 metric tons in 1Q, compared to 220,703 metric tons in the same period last year.The softer results were driven by a narrower ethylene price arbitrage between the US and Asia,as high domestic prices dis-incentivized US trading. Though 1Q's terminal results were softer, 2Qthroughput is expected to increase materially. We maintain our Buy rating and our $18 price target. Omar Nokta * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8405 | onokta@jefferies.comJaeyoung McGarry * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8358 | jmcgarry@jefferies.comEmily Harkins * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8584 | eharkins@jefferies.com The Long View: Navigator Holdings Investment Thesis / Where We Differ Navigator is a unique player operating in the petrochemicals and LPG shippingsectors with a sizable fleet of semi-refrigerated and ethane/ethylene capableships. Navigator’s fundamental backdrop has strengthened materially overthe past year with both its shipping fleet and ethylene export terminalperforming very well and leading to record results most recently with its 2Qfinancials. Aside from a source of cash flow, the terminal offers Navigatornotable insight into the US export markets and cargo availability, allowing itto position and trade its vessels much more effectively. Upside Scenario,$25, +82% Base Case,$18, +31% Downside Scenario,$10, -27% •Prevailing ship values remain unchanged•Handysize LPG charter rates mostly remainabove breakeven levels for extended period•OPEC and non-OPEC crude production growthto bring LPG volumes alongside•ContinuedwidearbitragebetweenUSLPGexport prices and prices in Europe and Asia•Target of $18 is based on a 20-30% discount toNAV •Prevailing ship values jump 20%•HandysizeLPGcharterratesremainabovelong-run trends•Arbitrage pricing for US LPG exports persist•Term charters become liquid•Shares trade in-line with NAV of $25 •HandysizeLPGcharterratesdropbelowbreakeven for extended period•US LPG export pricing arbitrage diminishes•Naphtha becomes more attractively priced thanpropane for extended period•NAV drops to $10 Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top Material Issue(s): 1) Employee Health & Safety:Navigator’s top priority is fostering a safe workplacefor its seafarers and office staff. Navigator’s safety and environmental management systems areextern