叙事转变

Asia Credit Alpha Turning narrative We think the relief rally could become more sustained in thenear term on receding macro uncertainty, but we remainwatchful of moves in UST yields. We present our best ideasacross sectors, and discuss the Macau gaming sector andUPL’s perp bond. Asia Credit StrategyAvanti Save, CFA+65 6308 3116avanti.save@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Yimin Weng, CFA+65 6308 2716yimin.weng@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Asia Credit Alpha Sarah Beh+ 65 6308 5087sarahemi.beh@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Shiftin macro narrative is material and provides much needed catalysts for risk assets. Weexpect the rally to continue. Risk to our view stems from a potential surge in new deal volumes. Asia Credit ResearchJit Ming Tan, CFA+65 6308 3210jitming.tan@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Focus When the macro changes: Trade ideas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6The de-escalation in the trade conflict between the US and China is a material development forrisk assets. Concerns abouttariffheadwinds (growth, inflation) are fading. We highlight our bestideas. Roanna Chau+852 2903 2625roanna.chau@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong Focus Macau gaming: Revisit and reinvest. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20In light of increasing concerns of geopolitical tensions, we identify near- and long-term risks toMacau's gaming industry, and discuss the potential impact and severity on the sector/issuers.Top picks: Studio City '28s and '29s – OW. Wilson Ho, CFA+852 2903 2656wilson.ho@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong Imtiaz Shefuddin+65 6308 4906imtiaz.shefuddin@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Focus UPL Corp Ltd:Aftera long drought. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32More than positive earnings for FY25, the focus on UPLLIN over the short term is whether it willexercise the call option on the Perps this month or defer to a later date. Regardless, we thinkimprovement in its credit profile should drive bond performance. Retain '28s, '30s at OW; buy5.25% Perps Thisdocumentisintendedforinstitutionalinvestorsandisnotsubjecttoalloftheindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 38.Completed: 15-May-25, 12:15 GMTReleased: 15-May-25, 12:20 GMTRestricted - External Asia Credit Alpha Overview Shiftin macro narrative is material and provides muchneeded catalysts for risk assets. We expect the rally tocontinue. Risk to our view stems from a potential surge innew deal volumes. Asia Credit Strategy Avanti Save, CFA+65 6308 3116avanti.save@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Risk on.Bond index spreads have ratcheted tighter by 20bp since 6 May and have movedbroadly in lockstep with CDS indices. Macro uncertainty is receding, primary market activity haspicked-up but continues to be dominated by high grade, reinvestment demand from bondmaturities is sizeable, and positioning is better compared with late-March/early-April. Giventhis,we think the relief rally could become more sustained.Accordingly,we present our bestideas in the Focus 1. Yimin Weng, CFA+65 6308 2716yimin.weng@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Sarah Beh+ 65 6308 5087sarahemi.beh@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Demand/supply technicals.Primary market activity in Asia has resumed from late-April, butdeals are concentrated in the high grade universe. Year to date, the supply tally stands close toUSD80bn, and even though 58% is attributable to corporates, it is worth noting that c.USD15bnwas issued by LGFVs/Local SOEs. In our view, demand/supply technicals are healthy becauseconsidering bond maturities, liability-management exercises, and coupons, we estimate thatreinvestment demand is more than USD20bn per month. In other words, we estimate that netsupply is still negative for 2025. Furthermore, order-book coverage stats for new deals, numberof accounts participating and new deal performance, also point to healthy investor/dealerpositioning. Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Base case on trade is being reset.Our public policy team now expects totaltariffson USimports to settle between 14-17%: somewhere between 10-30% on China, 10% "reciprocal"tariffson the rest of the world, and some sectoraltariffs(with exemptions). Accordingly, macroforecasts are being adjusted: the US is no longer likely to see a recession in 2H2025, cost-pushinflationary pressures are likely to diminish, and the Fed is likely to deliver only one rate cut thisyear in December; and GDP growth forecasts for major Emerging Asian economies have beenupgraded. FIGURE 5. EM Asia