四月新TSF获取

April New TSF Retrieved AnalystEva YISAC No. S0570520100005SFC No. AMH263evayi@htsc.com+(852) 3658 6000 Huatai Research 15 May 2025│China (Mainland) Quick Take AnalystCHANG Huili, PhDSAC No.S0570520110002SFC No. BJC906changhuili@htsc.com+(86) 10 6321 1166 Quick take: In April 2025, China’s newly-added total social financing (TSF)declined seasonally, with mom growth (seasonally-adjusted) also slowing.Key points include: 1) RMB1.6tn in local government bonds wereissued fordebt swaps in 4M25, suppressing new loan figures and inflating headlinegovernment bond net issuance, thereby altering TSF composition. Excludingthis effect, newly-added loans remained weak in April; 2) Given a low base inApril 2024 due to technical factors, M2 yoy rebounded in April 2025, while M1yoy edged down, suggesting soft mom M1 performance.In April 2025, China’snewly-addedRMBloansamountedtoRMB280.0bn(vsBBGconsensusofRMB700.0bn), down RMB450.0bn yoy; newly-added TSF was RMB1.16tn (vsBBG consensus of RMB1.4tn), up RMB1.22tn yoy on a low base.As a result, inApril2025,TSFyoy rallied from8.4% inMarch2025to8.7%,whilemomannualized growth (seasonally-adjusted) slowed from 10% in March 2025 to 8%. AnalystWANG Mingshuo, CFA, PhDSAC No. S0570123070085SFC No. BUP051wangmingshuo@htsc.com+(86) 10 6321 1166 Specifically, for April 2025, net government financing accounted for ~90% ofnewly-added TSF, while newly-added RMB loans dropped RMB450.0bn yoy. Evenafter adjusting for local debt swaps, loan growth may have remained weak,onourestimate. On a low base, M2 yoy climbed from7% in March to 8% in April (vs BBGconsensus of 7.2%), partly supported by a stronger yoy growth in non-bankingfinancial institution deposits, in our view. M1 yoy fell slightly from 1.6% in March to1.5% in April (vs BBG consensus of 3.2%), potentially due to weak corporateearnings, in our view. Meanwhile, for April 2025, the weighted average interest rateon new corporate loans fell from 3.3% in March to 3.2% (-50bp yoy), while theinterest rate on new personal mortgages remained flat mom at 3.1% (-55bpyoy). Conclusion: Overall, local government bonds for debt swaps had a certainimpact on the balance between government bond issuance and new loanswithin TSF. We believe April’s weaker TSF growth momentum may reflectboth external demand disruptions anda tapering of fiscal expansion fromhigh bases. Looking ahead, we suggest monitoring whether TSF growthcould rebound in May amid the rollout of comprehensive financial stimulus–particularly whether relending tools would be deployed soon (see our reportMonetary Policy Package to Anchor Market Expectationsdated 9 May 2025).On balance, with tariff impacts easing notably, fiscal policy should remainaccommodative to sustain growth, in our view. In late April, net government bond issuance slowedmarkedly,down RMB554.8bnmom. As a result, the yoy increase in government bond net issuance narrowedfrom RMB762.4bn in early April to RMB75.0bn in late April, indicating a retreat offiscal expansion momentum from high bases. Looking ahead, we will closelymonitor the strength of fiscal policy implementation and the rollout of the financialpolicy package introduced on 7 May, particularly whether the relending tools couldbe deployed promptly. In May to date, net government bond issuance totaledRMB756.4bn,upRMB332.4bnyoy,signalingmarginalimprovementinfiscalstrength, in our view. Risks:China-UStradefrictionsexceedingourexpectations;worsepropertydownturn than we expect. Specifically: 1) In April 2025, M1 yoy edged down from 1.6% in March 2025 to 1.5%, likely reflecting weakcorporate earnings,in our view.In April 2025, yoy M1 growth fell slightly from 1.6% in March2025 to 1.5% (vs BBG consensus of 3.2%), with the mom non-annualized growth slowing from 0.4%in March 2025 to 0% (Fig.6).For 4M25, cumulative local government bond issuance for debt swapstotaled RMB1.6tn, potentially leading to a marginal enhancement in the cash flow of the broadgovernment sector, in our view. Meanwhile, PPI yoy decline widened further to-2.7% in April 2025,indicating that corporate earnings remained under pressure, in ourview. In April 2025, M2 yoy rebounded from 7% in March 2025 to 8%, ahead of BBG consensus of7.2%, partly aided by a low base and stronger yoy growth in non-banking financial institutiondeposits,although the yoy increase in incremental fiscal deposits offset yoy M2 gains.Specifically, M2 yoy picked up from 7% in March to 8% in April (Fig.5), with seasonally-adjustedmom (non-annualized) M2 growth rising slightly from 0.6% in March to 0.9% in April (Fig.5).Consequently, M2 balance deviated from the historical trend by 3.3% in April 2025, wider thanMarch’s 2.3%. The balance of RMB deposits fell RMB440.0bn mom in April 2025, buttheyoy decline narrowedsubstantially by RMB3.48tn. Specifically, the yoy reduction in corporate/resident deposits narrowedbyRMB542.8/460.0bn, while incremental non-banking financial institution deposits rose sharply byRMB1.9tn yoy, poss