立高食品（300973）：在山姆会员店渠道中表现突出的新产品，2025年第一季度利润超预期

Standout New ProductsinSam’sClubChannel,1Q25ProfitsBeat Rating (Maintain):BUYTarget price (RMB):48.79 Huatai Research Annual Results Review 14 May 2025│China (Mainland) Food AnalystGONG YuanyueSAC No. S0570520100001SFC No. BQL737gongyuanyue@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228 Ligao Foods’revenue/attributable net profit (NP) were RMB3.84/0.27bn for 2024(+9.6/266.9%yoy) andRMB1.12/0.06bn for 4Q24 (+22.0%/turning positive yoy).The2024resultswereinlinewiththeearlierprofitalert.For1Q25,revenue/attributableNP grew14.1/15.1%yoy toRMB1.05/0.09bn, exceedingourexpectations (+12/2%yoy), mainlyaseffectiveexpensecontrolsoffsetGPMpressure.For revenue,thefrozen bakery businessfaced pressure in 2024,butrapidsales volume growthforwhipped-cream productsprovided a growth driver.For profits,factors such as a significant yoy reduction in share-based paymentexpenses, improved cost-effectiveness under lean management, and economiesof scale driven by whipped-cream product sales growth contributed to improvedprofitabilityyoy.In1Q25,revenuegrowthremainedsolid,withimpressiveperformanceof new products intheSam’s Clubchannelcontributing incrementalrevenue. Meanwhile, the company’s sales strategy and productR&D—organizedaround individual production lines as the basic unit—led to morereasonable andprecisespending,effectivelymitigatingGPMpressure.Weexpectafurtheroperationalrecovery. BUY. AnalystWANG KexinSAC No. S0570524020001SFC No. BVO215wangkexin019215@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228 Key data 1Q25 frozen bakery revenue upc.12%yoyOn the product side, 2024 revenuesfrom frozen bakery/cream/fruit products/ sauceswereRMB2.13/1.06/0.17/0.22bn(-3.5/+61.8/-11.3/-3.6%yoy),withwhipped creamproductsthe primary driver ofthecream revenuejump.In 1Q25,frozen bakery revenue wasc.RMB630mn(+ c.12%yoy),whilebakery ingredientrevenuewasc.RMB420mn(+ c.17%yoy), with UHT whipped cream maintainingits strong growth trendpostlaunch. On the channel front, 2024revenuesfromdistribution/directoperation/retailchannelswereRMB2.22/1.58/0.01bn(+12.7/+6.1/-43.7%yoy).In1Q25,revenuefromthebakerychannelfellbyamid-single-digityoy,mainlyduetoanearlierChineseNewYearthisyear.Supermarket channel revenue rose by over 40%yoy, with the pace ofproductlaunchesin the Sam’s Club channelaccelerating since December 2024. Revenuefrom the catering and new retail channels increased by over 20%yoy, maintainingstrong momentum. Source:Wind 1Q25profit beat,expense reduction offsetGPMpressuresIn 2024,theGPMedged upby0.1pp yoy to 31.5% (4Q24: +1.6pp yoy), owingtoflexible price locksforbulkrawmaterialssuch asbaking oil and economies of scaledriven bywhipped-cream products. For 2024,thesales/administrative expenseratios fellby1.4/2.9pp yoy to 12.1/6.7% (4Q24:-3.8/-8.9pp yoy), due to a notablereduction in share-based payment expenses.The attributable NPM for 2024 roseby4.9ppyoyto7.0%(4Q24:turnedpositiveyoy),asignificantimprovementinprofitability. In 1Q25,theGPM fellby2.6pp yoy to 30.0%,as changes in channel andproduct mix weighed on raw-material costs (eg, bakingoil and dairyproducts).Forthe quarter,thesales/administrative expense ratios decreased by 2.0/1.2ppyoyto10.1/5.4%,owingto strictexpensebudgeting and improved operational efficiency.This, coupled withagovernment-subsidy reduction ofRMB3.78mnyoy, ledtoanattributable NPM of 8.5%in 1Q25(+0.1ppyoy). Operational momentum buoyant, maintain BUYGiventhestrongoperationalmomentum,weslightly reviseupourrevenueforecasts.Consideringcost pressures, we maintain our profit forecasts. Weproject2025/2026 EPSatRMB1.95/2.28, and introduceour2027EEPSestimateofRMB2.60. We value the stock at 25x 2025E PE, at par with its peers’average onWind consensus, for our target price of RMB48.79(unchanged).MaintainBUY. Risks:marketdemandfallingshyofourexpectations;food-safetyissues;raw-material price volatility. Financials Source:Wind, Huatai Research Source:Wind, HuataiResearch Full financials Disclaimers Analyst CertificationI/We, GONG Yuanyue, WANG Kexin, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or willbe,directly or indirectly, related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report. General Disclaimers and DisclosuresThis research report has been prepared by Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited (hereinafter referred to as “HFHL”).The information herein is strictly confidential to the recipient. This report is intended for HFHL, its clients and associatedcompanies. Any other person shall not be deemed a client of the Company merely from his or her receipt of this report. This report is based on information deemed reliable and publicly available by HFHL, but HFHL and its associated company(ies)(collectively, hereinafter“Huatai”)makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The opinions, assessments and projections contained herein onl