美国关税冲击波：对阿拉伯地区的影响

United States tariff shockwaves:impacts on the Arab region Introduction The Arab region stands at a pivotal juncture in its economicrelations with the United States of America following the2April announcement of sweeping tariffs under PresidentTrump’s “America First” policy. An additional blanket10percent tariff was imposed on nearly all imports, with evensteeper penalties – ranging from 10percent to 42percent– targeting countries with significant trade surpluses withthe United States, such as China and Viet Nam, but also withinsignificant trade ties including many Arab States.1 While energy, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductorsand lumber are currently exempted, non-oil exports such astextiles, fertilizers, chemicals, aluminium and electronicsare now subject to high tariffs. These measures effectivelynullify the preferential treatment previously granted toBahrain, Jordan, Morocco and Oman under bilateral free tradeagreements (FTAs), marking a shift away from long-standingtrade partnerships. Even imports from Egypt and Jordan’sQualifying Industrial Zones (QIZs) are not exempted from theuniversal tariff. This new wave of trade restrictions is markedly different frompast United States-China tensions in three key aspects: it isglobal in scope, imposes historically high tariffs that exceedthe World Trade Organization commitments, and remainspolitically fluid, with potential for bilateral revisions. Against all expectations, on 9April, President Trump announceda 90-day pause on all “reciprocal” tariffs except thoseimported from China which will see tariffs increased to at least145percent. Moreover, on 11April, the White House announcedthe removal of reciprocal tariffs from a range of electronicgoods covering smartphones and computers, among others.China would receive the greatest benefit from these newexemptions, which represent around 22percent of its goodsexports to the United States market.2 The present brief is part of the continued efforts by ESCWAto timely monitor and evaluate the impacts of global changeson the region’s economic prospects. It provides a preliminary,short-term estimate of macroeconomic impacts on theArab region in2025, focusing on mechanical effects of tradediversion rather than full-scale global value chain (GVC)realignments, which require more time to materialize. .2 United States-Arab trade relations:key highlights 2.1Changing pattern of theUnited States trade relevance tothe Arab region Arab exports of goodsto the United States Arab exports of goods to the UnitedStates dropped from $91billion in2013(6percent of total) to $48billion in2024(3.5percent of total), largely due toreduced United States imports of crudeoil and petroleum products. The UnitedStates has maintained a trade surpluswith the Arab region since2015, which wasabout $20billion in2024, suggesting thatthe region imports more goods from theUnited States than it exports (figure1). Most Arab countries have a moderate or lowshare of exports to the United States market,except Jordan (figure2). Even FTAs and QIZagreements signed with Egypt and Jordanhave not significantly boosted the exports ofEgypt, compared to Jordan, which benefitedfrom preferential access to the UnitedStates market for all goods incorporatingsubstantial Israeli components. Arab exports to the United States arelargely dominated by energy and mineralproducts. However, over time, exports ofoil and petroleum products to the UnitedStates declined substantially (figure3). The non-oil exports from the region tothe United States have gone up from$14billion in2013 to $22billion in2024,3marking a three-fold increase in theirshare of total exports (figure4). The new United States tariffs on Arabgoods will have a direct impact on thesenon-oil exports to the United Statesmarket, amounting to $22 billion, whilethe oil and petroleum products areexempted from new tariff increases. 2.2Varied impact in the regiondue to new tariff hikes by theUnited States Impact on theArab countries A country having a higher share ofnon-oil exports to the United States isexpected to be directly impacted. Thedirect impact is particularly high forcountries where exports to the UnitedStates constitute a major share of theirtotal global exports. Based on thesetwo indicators,6Arab countries areprojected to face a significant impact,5a small impact and 11an insignificantimpact (figure5). Significantimpact:Bahrain, Egypt,Jordan, Lebanon,Morocco and Tunisia Small impact: Algeria, Oman, Qatar,Saudi Arabia andthe United ArabEmirates Exports from six Arab countries –Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon,Morocco and Tunisia – are expected tobe significantly affected by the newtariff hikes, implying that a 5percentshare or higher of their total exportsis directly impacted. Jordan is themost directly impacted, with nearly25 per cent of its goods exported tothe United States. Exports from five Arab countrieswould face a small impact, implyingthat less than 5percent of their totalex