月度策略报告：一损俱损

从业资格证号：F03108382投资咨询证号：Z0021543能源化工期货（期权）研究室010-82295006wangjiangnan@swhysc.com20250407《关税政策全方面打击》20250414《原油超跌引发产业链重新定20250421《纺服抢出口现象并未出现》20250429《短期继续区间运行》20250408《原油超跌引发商品市场重新20250414《美国进口来货基本暂停》20250422《关注后续聚酯减产进度》20250430《低点有支撑，上升无驱动》请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分2025年05月12日 一损俱损 [table_research]分析师：王江楠研究所TEL：Email：相关周报PX&PTA价》MEG定价》 目录观点摘要：.......................................................................................................................................................................1一、PX.........................................................................................................................................................................5（一）行情回顾：成本大跌，跳空后持续低迷....................................................................................................................5（二）检修带来唯一利好.......................................................................................................................................................6（三）PXN继续低迷，月底效益略有好转..........................................................................................................................8（四）去库较一季度有所提速...............................................................................................................................................9二、PTA.....................................................................................................................................................................10（一）行情回顾：关税冲击下价格低位运行......................................................................................................................10（二）加工费空间继续压缩，计划外检修计划频发..........................................................................................................10（三）库存终从高位回落.....................................................................................................................................................13（四）出口环比大幅下跌.....................................................................................................................................................13三、MEG.......................................................................................................................................................................14（一）行情回顾：共性下跌后保持区间运行......................................................................................................................14（二）检修计划如期执行，煤制开工下滑显著..................................................................................................................14（三）聚酯工厂提货谨慎，港口发货明显下降..................................................................................................................16（四）乙二醇进口受到关税直接影响.................................................................................................................................17四、聚酯.........................................................................................................................................................................18（一）行情回顾：价格不出意外地下跌.............................................................................................................................18（二）减产计划落实较慢，开工保持年内高位..................................................................................................................19（三）库存达到年内峰值后下降.........................................................................................................................................21（四）瓶片出口继续高歌猛进.............................................................................................................................................22五、纺服消费.................................................................................................................................................................24（一）江浙织造综合开机率温和下降.................................................................................................................................24（二）一季度纺织服装累计出口同比增长1%，由负转正................................................................................................25（三）美国关税的重大打击.................................................................................................................................................26六、后市展望及主要结论...............................................................................................................................................27 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分第2页 图表目录图1：国际原油期货价格走势（美元/桶）·····························································································································5图2：聚酯上游原料价格走势（美元/吨）·····························································································································5图3：PX与原油价格走势（美元/桶，美元/吨）·················································································································5图4：PXCFR中国现货价格变化（美元/吨）······················································································································5图5：PX期货行情（手，元/吨）·······························································································