GXO物流（GXO）：第一季度有机增长和EBITDA超出预期；2025年指引重申

1Q Organic Growth & EBITDA Beats; 2025 GuideReaffirmed With the 1Q coming in above on both organic growth and EBITDA, we thinkthe company has ample cushion with respect to its full-year guide. For the 1Qspecifically, while previously communicated customer network realignmentswas a headwind, results came in a better as customer volumes actuallyincreased YoY and productivity was higher than expected. We continue to likeGXO here, given its long-term contract model and exposure to improving trendsacross Europe. 1Q Results Beat as Organic Growth Above:For the 1Q, GXO posted revenues of $2.98bn (+21.2%YoY), above our estimate of $2.95bn (+20% YoY) and the consensus $1.93bn (+19.4% YoY), andadj. EBITDA of $163mm, also above our consensus-matching estimate of $155mm. Importantly,organic revenue growth came in at 3%, beating expectations and coming in at the high end of theLSD% outlook (JEF est. 2%, consensus 1%). 2025 Guide Reaffirmed:Along with the strong 1Q results, the2025 guide was reiteratedwhichcalls for (1) organic revenue growth of 3% — 6%,(2) adj. EBITDA of $840 — $860mm, (3) adj. EPSof $2.40 — $2.60, and (4) FCF conversion between 25 — 35%. Highlighted in Figure 1, while therewas no change to the outlook, the guidance is above consensus expectations. Importantly, withthe strong underlying momentum and the fact that FX has become a tailwind with the decliningdollar,we have a high degree of confidence that the company can meet or exceed this guide.While we would look to get incremental color from their CFO regarding various scenario planning,our expectation is that the management has a very high degree of confidence in the outlook givenwhat's already locked in and the high level of visibility they have. What's Already Locked in?:In the 1Q, GXO signed new business wins on $228mm, slightly belowlast year's $250mm and in-line with the company's internal plan.To-date, GXO has already secured$732mm in incremental 2025 revenues, which represents over 7% gross organic growth alreadylocked in. Accounting for some small wins expected to be signed in the 2Q, we continue to expect8% gross organic growth for 2025. Importantly, incremental revenues for 2026 continue to besecured well above last year with$316mm of expected incremental revenues for 2026 won to-date (up 30% vs. where we were this time last year). The sales pipeline (which excludes Wincanton)also continues to expand, growing to its highest level in three years at ~$2.5bn. Notably, GXO isseeing strong momentum across Europe as underlying fundamentals accelerate in the region. Source: Company filings, Jefferies*Includes the impact of previouslycommunicated customer footprintrealignments. Underlying attrition was aMSD% So What Will the Stock Do?:With a solid beat across all metrics (organic revenue growth, adj.EBITDA, and adj. EPS) and a long-term contract business model that is seeing accelerating growthtrends across its largest regions,we expect shares to open higher tomorrow. At a high level, wecontinue to really like GXO here given its long-term contract model provides an attractive qualityof visibility and predictability into earnings. Moreover, with ~2/3 of its business exposed to Europeand the UK and a business model focused on domestic rather than international distribution,wesee GXO as not only relatively insulated from what's happening on the global trade front, but alsouniquely benefiting from improving business sentiment across the pond. While we would havepreferred to see the 2025 guide raised, given the strong 1Q results and recent FX moves (recall GXOearns most of its revenues in Pounds and Euros), we think it's more prudent to simply reiterate aconfident target given the macro uncertainties and volatility in FX. At 8x 2025 EBITDA, reiterate Buy. Stephanie Moore * | Equity Analyst(615) 934-1384 | smoore@jefferies.comJoseph Hafling * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8707 | jhafling@jefferies.com Company Description GXO Logistics GXO Logistics, Inc. provides logistics services in North America and Europe. It offers high-value-add warehousing and distribution, order fulfillmentand other supply chain services. The company is headquartered in Greenwich, CT. Company Valuation/Risks GXO Logistics Price Target $58.Our PT is based on ~11x our 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimate and 10x our 2026 estimate, which is at the low end of its low-double-digit to mid-teens historical multiple and below transaction comps in the space at 15x-20x. Operational Risk.Failure to compete or respond to customer requirements could negatively affect the business. Increases in costs to attract, trainand retain employees needed to operate may negatively impact the company. Past acquisitions, as well as any acquisitions that may be completedin the future, may be unsuccessful or result in other risks or developments that negatively impact the company. Overseas operations are subject tovarious operational and financial risks that could adversely affect the business. Techn