沙特阿美商业运营的转型

Leveraging the breadth and depthof its global refining system andglobal trading arm, Aramco’sDownstream is undergoing atransformation to generate valuecreation and commercialexcellence © Oliver WymanOVERVIEWThe commercial models of national and international oil companies have evolved greatlyover the past two decades, and there is a wide spectrum in terms of sophistication. Onthe one side there are simple marketing practices that focus on long-term fixed contracts,complemented by occasional tenders. On the other end of the spectrum there are the fullyintegrated, commercially focused structures that have an active view on global systemmargins over time and employ a dynamic approach to their system optimization. Thesecommercial models leverage refining integration and physical flexibility, as well as paperdeals to generate additionalvalue.Aramco’s Downstream commercial journey has also progressed strongly over the pasttwo decades, and most recently it has implemented a new and advanced commercialapproach that sits firmly on the latter end of the spectrum and has the potential toplace the company’s commercial practices at the forefront of the industry. This includesa margin-focused and fully integrated optimization of its domestic and internationalassets, and is called Global Optimization. This is a far-reaching change and includes newcommercial mindsets, cutting-edge digital tools, new processes, and sophisticated linearprogramming modelling. This is a very significant transformation in Aramco’s Downstreamoptimization practices, and is what we will further explore in thispaper.At the same time, Aramco is very active in the business development space in order todrive integration and value-chain coverage, including in refining, retail, basic chemicals,and more advanced chemicals and polymers. Given this active growth positioning, therestructuring of the downstream commercial model could also create a step change in thecompany’s approach to managing its ever-growing portfolio of assets, potentially leadingto a significant increase in its ability to create shareholder value from its asset base.Importantly, the new model will also help strengthen the partnerships Aramco has forgedin downstream, with the additionally generated value also benefiting itsaffiliates.Oliver Wymananalysis shows that companies who transition towards a moresophisticated commercial model manage to achieve better results in their downstreambusinesses, weathering market volatility more successfully and outperforming theirless commercially sophisticated competitors by an average premium of $1.5-$2 perbarrel. While acknowledging the multiple strategic, operational and geographical factorsimpacting the overall performance of downstream business, the consistent averagerelative premium observed indicates that an advanced commercial model is one ofthe key drivers for downstream to fully realize its value-adding potential. Internationalbenchmarks also show that having an integrated optimization system — such as GlobalOptimization — is core to the success of more advanced commercialmodels. © Oliver WymanThe commercial transformation is a stepping stone forAramco’s Downstream business to move towards its excitingstrategicambitionsMohammed Y. Al-Qahtani, PresidentDownstreamWHY ARAMCO’S COMMERCIAL JOURNEY ISUNIQUEOver the last two years, Aramco Downstream broke its earnings performance record twice,benefiting from a strong operational performance and from recovering market conditions.The year 2021 also marked the launch of a business-wide transformation program, witha clear focus on pushing earnings even further in upcoming years. At the core of thetransformation was the company’s new commercial model, centered on the integration andoptimization of its domestic and international assets and global marketpositions. © Oliver WymanAramco is one of the world’s largest energy and chemical companies, combining itsleadership position in crude oil production with one of the biggest refining (4.1MMBD1netcapacity) and petrochemical systems (56.3MMTA1production capacity) worldwide, and aninternational supply and trading presence (6.7MMBD of traded products1). It is also oneof few companies globally that has a clear plan for substantial expansion of processingcapacity, both in fuels and chemicals, and for further value-chain integration via increasedsales to consumers through retail and lubricantbrands.Aramco’s Downstream system has unique characteristics that make it difficult to mimicor directly transpose existing optimization models in the industry. Beyond its sheer sizeand complexity, Downstream provides unquestionable value to the Aramco group bybeing the largest customer of its Upstream business. Also, Aramco’s Downstream systemencompasses a wide range of joint ventures with strategic partners. Lastly, Aramco has aspecial commitment towards its local customers, as it is solely responsible for supplyingfuels to the domestic market. Such strategic imperatives