监管数字资产和金融中的生成人工智能

Forum •SoliveOrwlyimvaenrWyman Forum CCryrptyoapssettso: assets: TTuluipsloirpDost-coomrs?Dot-coms? DDouoglausJ.gElllioattsJ.Elliottddouogluasg.elllioatt@s.oelivlelrwiyomtant.c@omoliverwyman.com JJanauanryu27a,20r2y2 27,2022 Camp1,TlieDiswissive:Theseofficials(elievethatcraditionalcryptoassetsareself- viclcillyspctulalivcfadrkiwillcvclluullyblowupanlvanishwithuulthexdor seriousprlicymcasurcs.Thcrearefewerandlfcweratihcreirsorthlsvlewasbiteoin.Fther, auinumerousaltcoinssuirvive,andeventhrive,despitetwistsandtursinthewider ceunornyantlstrnetincsverysharpfallsineryptoassetvalualions,nottomtionlegal tryptuasstloppucntsinGulip2. Arecryptoassetsmerelybelleficiariesofimmensespeculativeexcess,liketulipbulbs duringthe:farrnous''ulpMantaofthe153iks2torisitrrnorcapttnsec:themas1998styleclot colms.centraltotheearlystagesofmajorecollonictrasformaticllevelthcugl surruuicecibyspculaliveexecss,ignorunceiundnuivetc,undcvenfraud?Thismgybcthk celrralquestionfacingpolicymakersaroundlrlieworldasrlieygrapplewitlihowtomold legislalicllandregulationloniaulageLienovelcryplceccsyslenLhalisrapicly developing.G:rcatingcnlerentpollcyancryproasserswilllx:verytlifflcultaslngas officialsuresplitbetweenkillitnigcryptoassets.chanelingthiemnnarrowly.orbrozdily coourhgingtlitill,Iwritethispapcrinthchopx'sthalallupcrldliscussiorlofkcy indlerlyingassumptionsabnutrlesocietalvaluieofcryptoassetswillhelpcreateaworking "ciisensusuinongpulicyniakers,enablingcoherenlregulalion. Ihave:hundredsofmetligsayearacrossthcglnbcwithccntralhankgoverrnors,hcardsot financialregulatoryauthorities,financeministers,internationalstandardsetters,and thcirvariustlirectrcporis,urconversalinnsfocusohtheinostirnpnrtantitemsatthe interseccioncftfinialiceandpublicpolicy.Increasingly,theshorrlistotburningissuesfor Lieinincluclescligitalussetsalongsicletopissuchasinflatiou,interestrutes,theroleofBig TechandlfintecihsInflnace,alitcllmate:risk.Thediglralasserclisclisslnnscoverallrhree inajorsub-sels:cenlralbankdigitalcurrencies(CBDC):slublecoins;andwhalIreferlo, soinewhartongueinchcek,as*trarlitlonai"cryprtasstts.whichrlonottrytomaintaina one-to-onevaluewithanunderlyiigcurrellcysuchaschedollar.Tliscategorycomprises biteoin,Eihor,anlvhrioulsallcoils.,Mysolcfecirsiithispapcrwillbctfresraiio! cryptoassers. I'veobservedfourbrowcampsumonglinmukialofficialsasregardstheirviewsonl traditionalcryptoasscts.Horsimplicity,I'vcchoscnshortphrasestodescribecachcamp. whichireintendedtobelieutralanddescriptive.Myapologiesifanyofthesecoueicross aspxcjoralivt, Canmp2,ActiveOpponents:Theseofficialsareequallynegative.burnolollgerhelievetliis assetclasswillgoawayonitsowi.Theygellerallydcon'telieveitcanbekilled,either, Recogniziigtheexistenceofthesecompetingcampshelpsexplainsomecfchepolicy HotiunshalIrightothrwiscsecilpuzzlirig.Forcxulrpke,tlJul2ozltlistussiunpajwr bytheRaselConmitteennTankingSupervisionlaicoutafirstattemptatserringcapiral recquirenrenlsforbuniksthathaveexixosurelodigilalassels,I,andlnulyothercbservers, vicwixdcorc:clencntsfthcproposalasgunitiverathcrthanre:flcctivc:ofthcunrlerlying risks.(Forexanmple,a1.25o%riskweightformostcryptozssetswould,jnpractice.require hanksttalloealccapilalwllbcyoritlwhalaloo%wip:-uutofihcirhnldingswoultlcost tllen.)Thenyper-coliservativeatureofanunieroftherequirementsisbestderstood. 1brlicvc,Hsthcr'sullofaninilialcuprunistbxlwccnActivcOppo'nlsHnl Pragmatlsts.P'ragmiaristsgaincedacqulcsceiiceforaflrstcutarasctnfcapitalstandardsfor banksoperatiginthisarena.ActiveOppouentsgotsuchapunitivesetofrejuireinents thatitwtuldstverelylitnitbankshopingtoperateinthissphere.Inthe:chcl,1bxelicve:that tllemnostextremeaspectscfcheprojosalwrillbemoditiedwhentlleconmitteecoesback withthercvisedprupusulilhaspruiristi. althoughmanyoftliemwouldliketodojustthat.Theiroppositionarisesfroniconcerns abutconsurnc:tanrlInvcstorprotectlon,financialstahility,financialcriinc:andnincy laundering.controlotmouetarypolicy,alidtheenergyintesityofsomeciyptoassets Hillonguthcrrcasos.ThcChin'scgovernnlisIlowckarlyinthiscalup,havig essentiallyuitlawedtheuseoftraditinnalcryptoassets.Mnstothernfficialsinthiscamp aremorefocuisedonliniilingthisseclor'ssizeandkeepinigilasfarawuyaspossiblefroni thingsrhcycarcabrut,suclasrle"rcalcconamy"andrhccorchankingsystcm. Camp3,Pragmatists:Mostofficialsintlhiscaumnparestillsomewhatskepticalofthe soeietalvaluoftraditjoralcryploassets,butihckcylifferee:frunCarrpsIanlzisihal thevlelievegrowrhoftheseassersaldilcreasedtieswirhthetrauditinnaltinancialsecror -areinevitable.Therefore,theyfocusonhowlolaydowlaws,rules,ulidsupervisory approachcsthatwilprrivllerhcExestsuppeortrorfinancialstability.Investorprotecrio11, auxitheotherclassicolbjectivesoffinancialregulation. Gamp4,Supporters:Maybclo%offinancialollicialswithwhoinIsprakarepositive overallontraditionalcrypcoassers.Tlieytendtohejnfirallceministriesandother govcirltnlagclicicsIatherthnatccritralbunksorrogulalcrs,Thcyluokthruughthc hyx,cxcess,sjperilarion.andfraurl.andenvlsionaceretechnnlogicalhre