重建存款管理肌肉

© Oliver WymanAs deposits regain value, banks must bolster their deposit managementcapabilities to ensure they can compete effectively to protect clientrelationships, profitability, and access to funding.After a decade of negative or zero interest rates, European economies entered a rising ratecycle in 2022. Many banks have been able to raise rates on lending assets and, by keepingdeposit costs low, expand net interest margins, which have gone up by as much as 31 basispoints since Q3 2022 across the EU. However, this growth has been uneven and depended onthe assets and liabilities’ structure. Not all players and markets benefited from the interestraterise.Due to national market differences such as saving product norms, bank concentration,share of non-for-profit banks, and bank liquidity positions, some banks had to pass higherrates onto deposit holders faster than others. In many markets, expanding bank profits alsostirred up controversy. Some governments like Spain and Italy imposed windfall taxes onbanks to limit their interest rate gains. Some regulators have looked for levers to try topasson rising rates to consumers, for instance the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s 14-pointaction plan on cashsavings.As markets anticipate an end to rate hikes, deposit interest rates are expected to eventuallycatch up. Are Europe’s banks ready to compete for deposits in an environment new to awhole generation of bankers? After years of low interest rates, has the “deposit muscle”atrophied at some institutions?Additionally, a new generation of digitally savvy, hyper-connected clients used to immediateonline transfers will be seeking better returns on their savings. The competition for depositsis only going to get tougher. The recent events with US regional banks have shown thatcustomer behavior has changed since the previous period of high rates. Finally, the depositproduct range has become more complex. Clients have access to a wider array of competingtypes of investments, particularly through online brokers, which they view as attractivealternatives to traditional deposits.In this environment, a systematic approach to deposit management will be a critical valuedriver and necessary defensive tool. Our experience suggests that smart, analytically-drivenapproaches can optimize deposit costs by 10 to 15%, or by €29 to €43 billion per year forEuropean banks. These tools are also essential to meeting assets and liability management(ALM) and liquidity objectives, and to build the understanding needed to ensure fairtreatment of each customersegment. © Oliver WymanExhibit 1: Growth in net interest margin has been uneven across markets anddependent on the assets and liabilities' structure1Change in NIM in the current interest rates growth cycle and selected key drivers acrossselected EuropeanmarketsShare of variable rateloans in total loans atthe beginning of thecurrent cycleShare of customerdeposits from householdsin total liabilities atthe beginning of thecurrent cycleChange in netinterest margin inthe current cyclePortugalIrelandItalyAustriaSpainNetherlandGermanyFranceUnited Kingdom1.3%1.1%0.8%0.6%0.5%0.3%0.3%-0.1%-0.5%64.5%69.3%67.9%66.3%68.5%39.5%56.9%34%54.3%35.8%35%39.6%39.4%36.5%24.6%18.5%118.3%17.7%Note: Data for beginning of interest rate cycle for the Eurozone at Q1 2022, while for the UK Q4 2021. Latest data availablefor Q2 2023. Net Interest Margin calculated as (Interest Income – Interest Expense) / average earning assets.Source: EBA, Bank of England, Oliver Wyman analysis1For the UK only for mortgages to households. © Oliver WymanExhibit 2: Passthrough rate of central bank policy rates to deposits (Deposit Beta)80%60%40%20%0%Cumulative deposit betas1in quarters since start of rate hikes (%)Q+0Q+1Q+2Q+3Q+4Q+5Q+6Q+14Q+13Q+12Q+11Q+10Q+9Q+8Q+7US current 2022 cycle2Euro current 2022 cycle3Euro 2005 cycleUS 2004 cycleUS 2015 cycleUK current 2022 cycleUK current 2022 cycle4Drill down for selected Euro markets (%)Current cycle, June 2022 – October 202332.3%26.0%29.2%22.4%13.5%10.7%14.8%51.9%20.9%58.3%36.0%Sources: Autonomous, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation,Oliver Wyman analysis1Deposit beta calculated as ratio of the change in cost of total deposits to the change in the central bank policy rate forthe respective period.2US latest data as of Q3 2023.3Eurozone latest data as of October 2023. Latest quarter extended by one month until October 2023.4UK latest data as of October 2023. Latest quarter incomplete. © Oliver WymanGETTING DEPOSIT MANAGEMENT IN SHAPESmart deposit management based on analytics and well embedded in commercial day-to-day operations will mark the difference between banks’ performance as interest rates areincreasingly passed on to clients.Oliver Wymanhas worked with banks across the world to enhance their depositmanagement capabilities. Below, we have outlined 10 emerging best practices to assistEuropean banks looking to understand what th