中国旅游业放缓影响奢侈品趋势

© Oliver WymanKEY TOPICSWe surveyed over 7K affluent Chinese consumers1across June and September as input into our research1.18 years and above from an affluent household with a minimal household income of RMB 30,000When will all Chinesetravelers be back?01Domestic travel tractioncontinues, but int’l travel willnot be back until 2025 How big willHainanbecome?04Hainan has the potential torepresent ~20% of the totaldomestic luxury market Will China becomethegrowth engine oftheglobal luxurymarketagain?02China will fuel the growth ofthe global luxury marketdespite short-term turbulence Will the long queuesofChinese shoppersinEurope return?03Domestic shopping is the newnormal; pre-COVID overseasspending level will not returnin the foreseeable future When will all Chinese travelers be back? © Oliver WymanTHERE WERE 155 MN OUTBOUND TRIPS BY CHINESETRAVELERS IN 2019, TOGETHER SPENDING US$ 245 BNNumber of trips by Chinese travelersMN, 2017-2019Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, World Travel and Tourism Council, Oliver Wyman analysis5,00120175,53920186,0062019+15%+4%DomesticOutbound155150131 US$ 245BNChinese outbound tourismexpenditure in 2019 © Oliver WymanCOVID-19 related border control policyTravel recovery rate by destination%, Chinese traveler count vs. 20191levelOct vs. 2019 same period1. For Hong Kong from July-December, it is compared to 2018 due to impact of social unrest in 2019H2; For Taiwan from September till December, it is compared to 2018 due to suspension of individual travel permit by Mainland China in August 2019; 2. Sep 2023 dataSource: Government statistics, Oliver Wyman analysisMacau SAR (83%)Hong Kong SAR (58%)Australia (57%)Singapore (47%)Korea (44%)Thailand (35%)Japan (40%)2Taiwan (10%)1025507510020202021 2022H12022July2023Jan2023Jun2019 level2023OctOUTBOUND TRAVEL OF CHINESE TRAVELERS IS ONLY GRADUALLY RECOVERING TO 2019LEVEL AND RECOVERY SLOWED OVER THE SUMMER © Oliver WymanDOMESTIC TRAVEL BENEFITS FROM LOW WILLINGNESS TO TRAVEL OVERSEASHow is the current economic & political situation impacting your willingness to travel?%1of affluent 2023 internationaltravelers1. For remaining % it did not changeSource:Oliver Wyman’s Chinese traveler survey (Sep 2023), Oliver Wyman analysis4%15%25%7%12%23%12%International travelDomestic travel+19%-32%+35%-14%vs.vs.IncreaseDecrease2% © Oliver WymanDOMESTIC TRAVEL WAS BOOMING DURING THEGOLDEN WEEK, SURPASSING 2019 LEVEL FORBOTH NUMBER OF TRAVELERS AND SPENDINGDomestic travel statistics in China’s 1stOct Golden Week12018-2023Domestic travel revenueBN RMBDomestictravelersnumberMNAveragespendingRMB599650454389287753201820192020202120222023+16%825831735755681912201820192020202120222023+10%726782618515422826201820192020202120222023+6%1. 2020 and 2023have a total of 8 days of holidays during Golden Week, while there are 7 days of holidays for other yearsSource: Ministry of Culture and Tourism Data Center, Oliver Wymananalysis © Oliver WymanEXPERIENCED INT’L TRAVELERS ARE POSTPONING THEIROUTBOUND TRAVEL PLANSExpected international travel timeline of pre-COVID international travelers% of respondents62%54%9%9%23%16%6%22%Jun-23Sep-231. Number of outbound travelers: 7.0 million (2019) vs. 5.9 million (2023)Question: When do you plan to travel? (including those who already traveled in 2023)Source: National Immigration Administration of China, Oliver Wyman’s Chinese traveler survey (Jun and Sep 2023), Oliver Wymananalysis202320242025-262027+ 2023 Oct Golden Weekinternational travelRecoveryrate184%Mainly driven by Hong Kong &Macau which reached85%-90%of pre-Covid level © Oliver WymanDOMESTIC TRAVEL IS SEEN AS A GREAT ALTERNATIVE AFTER ALMOST 3 YEARS OFBORDERCLOSUREReasons for deferred travelling plan% of respondentsPre-COVIDinternational travelersNew international travelersDomestic travelis sufficientInternational travelis too costlyHealth risksNo valid passport/visaLimited flight schedule73%47%32%53%22%28%8%35%3%8%Question: Why do you not plan to travel in 2023?Source: Oliver Wyman’s Chinese traveler survey (Jun 2023), Oliver Wyman analysis24% ofpre-COVIDtravelersare waryofflight cost, while 48%ofnon-internationaltravelersare concernedabout the generalaffordability ofaninternational trip © Oliver WymanFOR THOSE GOING OVERSEAS, SHORT HAUL DESTINATIONS GAINED POPULARITY OVERTHESUMMERTravel destinationsvisited orplanned to visit for 2023% ofinternational travelersQuestion: June: Where have you visited this year so far? Where are you planning to go to on your next trip? When do you thinkyou would travel to the following destinations?Sep: Where have you visited this year so far? Where are you planning to travel to for the remaining time of this year?1. How many time times do you expect to travel abroad this year (Jan to Dec 2023)?Source: Oliver Wyman’s Chinese traveler survey (Jun and Sep 2023), Oliver Wyman analysisMacauSingaporeKoreaThailandTaiwanJapanAustralia/NewZealandUKRest ofWesternEuropeMalaysiaNorthAmericaVietnam23%49%17%33%15%28%16%Hong Ko