2024年金融领域的10个关键政策问题

© Oliver WymanKEY POLICY ISSUES IN FINANCE IN 2024The last several years, I’ve written a paper early in the year laying out the key policy issuesaffecting finance that are likely to be the focus of policy maker attention, and therefore alsoof strong interest to financial institutions.Last year’s paper is availablehere.My annual predictions about the key topics have held up well, although there are alwaysadditional issues that pop up, such as when Russia invaded Ukraine or Silicon Valley Bank andCredit Suisse blew up. It’s not really a surprise that my choice of topics is pretty accurate, sinceI base my views in part on hundreds of conversations each year with central bank governors,heads of regulatory bodies, and other senior officialsglobally.Note that my focus is on the topics that are likely to receive the most policy attention,which is not the same as the list of major financial stability risks, although they dooverlapconsiderably.I begin the list with two over-arching themes that are important in their own right and alsoshape the discussion and substance of the othertopics.Populism, politics, and the US and European Union electionsThe New Monetary Order and its impact on the financialsectorI then move on to eight specific topics and then a short list of topics which did not make thecut, either because they are geographically limited or do not quite rise to the same level ofsignificance as theothers.Lessons from the March 2023 banking turmoilGeopolitics and FinanceGovernment debt risks and FinanceRole of non-bank financialinstitutionsBasel III endgame, especially impacts in the US and globally of the US implementationDigital assets, especially, outside the US, central bank digital currenciesClimate-related risk and FinanceAI and other tech affectingFinanceOther topics © Oliver WymanTHE VERY SHORT VERSIONFor readers with less time, here is a very brief explanation of each of the topics. The latersections are structured to make it as easy as possible to pick and choose which topics to readabout in moredetail.Populism, politics, and the US and European Union electionsPopulism continues to grow in many countries. This has important indirect effects on thefinancial sector by influencing the economy, politics, etc. It also has potential direct impacts,such as the clamor in some countries for additional taxes on banks. The detailed sectionincludes a link to my earlier paper on Financial Institutions in an Age ofPopulism.Looking beyond populism, elections, particularly in the US and EU, will influence financialsector policy. In the US, for example, Democratic views on financial regulation divergeconsiderably from Republicanviews.The New Monetary Order and its impact on the financialsectorTwelve years of “low for long” monetary policy heavily affected the evolution of the financialsector in most financial centers. The sector will need to adapt considerably further than ithas to the New Monetary Order, creating both opportunities and risks. The detailed sectionreferences three comprehensive papers written by me and my Oliver Wymancolleagues.Lessons from the March 2023 banking turmoilThere are a wide range of views about what we learned from the failures of Credit Suisseand several US regional banks. Even where there is agreement on the lessons, there remainsdebate over what to do as a result. The detailed section discusses what we’ve learned andwhat policymakers are likely to do as a result. Most potential changes are focused on;liquidity, interest rate risk, capital levels, proportionality of regulation across sizelevels,and resolutionprocedures. © Oliver WymanGeopolitics and FinancePolicy makers and executives should do extensive scenario analysis on potential geopoliticalshocks, given our recent experience. Beyond that, there is active policy debate about theextent to which Russia, China, and other countries may successfully construct an alternativefinancial ecosystem to reduce their risk from sanctions, seizures of reserve assets,etc.Government debt risks and FinanceNow that money is no longer essentially free, government debt levels in many countriescan create risks for financial institutions in multiple ways. For example, interest rates ongovernment debt significantly influence bank funding costs and the rates they chargetheir borrowers. Banks also own substantial amounts of government debt, creatingpricing risk. Further, much of wholesale finance uses government debt as collateral.Finally, economic performance will be significantly influenced by political choices abouthow to manage government debt levels. As a result of all this, monetary and regulatorypolicy will be noticeably influenced by government debt levels and activity in the relatedfinancialmarkets.Role of non-bank financial institutions(NBFIs)NBFIs are increasingly important to the financial sector and there is a very active policydebate on how regulation and supervision should change to reflectthis.Basel III endgame, especially impacts in the