以绿色目标提升欧洲铁路

CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARY1. UPGRADE RAIL TO DECARBONIZE TRANSPORT2. INCREASING CAPACITY ON RAILWAY NETWORKS3. IMPROVING PASSENGERAND FREIGHT CONNECTIVITY4. IMPACT ON THE GREEN DEAL5. INVESTING FOR BETTERCONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK 361114161819 © Oliver WymanEXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe European Green Deal aims to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions 55% by 2030.This includes a reduction of more than 70% of emissions in the transportation sector. Asrail generates significantly fewer greenhouse gases than other modes of transport, suchas aviation, cars, and trucks, shifting more transportation to rail is essential to achievingemissions targets, especially in the immediatefuture.Although rail is seen as a driver for green transportation, there are currently significantphysical constraints, particularly on shared tracks where train speeds vary (slow-movingfreight trains, faster passenger trains), causing capacity issues on important routes. Inaddition, rail performance and service levels have not met expectations in recent years. Exceptfor high-speed systems in Italy, Spain, and France, rail punctuality, reliability, flexibility, andtravel time over long distances has not been competitive versus other modes of transport.The rollout of digital technologies, such as European Train Control System (ETCS) signaling,will bring temporary benefits in the form of increased capacity but cannot overcome networkphysical limitations. As a result, service levels are unlikely to change significantly withoutaddressing these constraints. Building new tracks to address capacity bottlenecks is oftenhindered by a lack of necessary space. Capacity bottlenecks usually occur in cities and othermore densely populated areas, and planning approval can take decades. This puts theEuropean Green Deal at risk if transportation cannotdeliver.To make a modal shift to rail feasible, more groundbreaking and innovative technologies mustbe considered. Policymakers and transport leaders need to focus on technologies that enablesubstantial upgrading of current infrastructure rather than looking to build entirely newsystems, such as hyperloops. First, this could begin to address the limitations within the nextfive years rather than the next 25. This could be expected to translate into significantly shorterimplementation times and lower developmental costs. Additionally, this approach would alsosafeguard taxpayer investments in existing rail infrastructure.-70% CO2 transport emissions target by 2030 © Oliver WymanAn example of a technology that builds onto existing infrastructure is passive magneticlevitation (maglev), which is based on linear motor propulsion. This technology could berolled out by first retrofitting existing rolling stock, thereby increasing and harmonizingaverage speed across trains. Next, new lightweight and higher-speed vehicles couldreplace current rolling stock eventually, further increasing the railway system’s speed,capacity, andperformance.A technology upgrade like this would be more cost efficient than other capacityenhancements, such as adding new conventional track to the rail network. The benefitscould be substantial in terms of increasing the service levels and competitiveness ofrail. Travel and transport times could be significantly reduced, allowing for much moreattractive long-distance connections, especially on international routes. Higher loadinglimits could improve capacity and thus the productivity of freight trains.We estimate thatcapacity could be enhanced by up to 40% along main corridorsusingretrofitted, conventional rolling stock powered by linear motor propulsion. Up to 15% of intra-EU passenger transport could shift from air to rail, representing about 80 billion passenger-kilometers (pkm), and up to 10% of cargo transported could shift from road to rail, or about165 billion ton-kilometers (tkm).This could reduce transport-related CO2 emissions byabout 26 million tons annually.Of course, while increasing capacity is important, other steps would still need to be takento make rail more competitive. Reliability and punctuality for example hinge on improvedplanning, operational excellence, and enhanced cooperation among the differentstakeholders involved in the transportchain.In a subsequent phase, the railway system could be upgraded with the introduction ofmore efficient vehicles using passive maglev. Speed could be further harmonized andsubstantially increase to 300 kilometer per hour (km/h) for freight and 400 km/h for passengertrains. This upgrade would have massive benefits on service levels and reach: freeing up65% of infrastructure capacity, shifting up to 22% of passengers from air to rail (about125 billion pkm), and diverting up to 15% of freight from road to rail (about 270 billion tkm).Anannual reduction in transport-related CO2 emissions of 41 million tons could be achieved.Passive maglev technology is at an early stage of development and several questionsremain to be more fully investigated, including unc