释放二氧化碳去除的潜力

CONTENTSExecutive summaryCarbon dioxide removal investmentThe demand challengeAmaturing Market EcosystemScenarios forCDR growthHow the UK can accelerate carbon market growthAppendix© Oliver Wyman 381419232629 © Oliver WymanEXECUTIVE SUMMARYCarbon dioxide removal (CDR) is attracting mounting interest from potential corporatepurchasers in search of a solution for hard-to-abate residual greenhouse gas emissions, aswell as investors and project developers looking to participate in a high-growth emergingindustry. It reflects a growing recognition that carbon removal must scale substantially tolimitglobal warming to tolerable levels.As research for this report, we spoke with more than 30 companies operating in the carbonremoval space to explore the state of the market today and the conditions necessary tofoster the industry’s expansion, globally and in the United Kingdom. We found promisingsigns of development across the ecosystem, but also major challenges that must beaddressed if the market is to scale.To date, we estimate that over $30 billion in capital has been invested in CDR projectsglobally in anticipation of that growth. Yet CDR suppliers face considerable uncertaintyover the scale of demand from corporates for the carbon credits their projects generate.Ambiguity over how carbon credits can be used in transition plans and mandatory disclosureframeworks, concerns over high price points for credits, and the lack of a clear link to carbontaxes and permit schemes are key barriers inhibiting corporates from purchasing at scale.If these barriers are addressed, we estimate that the global market for CDR credits mayreach $100 billion a year between 2030 and 2035. On the current growth trajectory, weanticipate a market size one-tenth that amount.The UK has the potential to play a leading role within this global market. The UK benefitsfrom attractive geology and existing infrastructure to support carbon storage and is alreadya burgeoning centre for R&D in engineered solutions. With the woodland and peatlandcodes already in place, it is also well positioned to significantly scale nature-based solutions.As a major financial centre, it can bring together the financing, trading, insurance, legal, andstandard-setting capabilities that will be needed to establish the level of integrity necessaryto create a large-scale market.However, the UK must take action or risk losing ground to other markets that are alsomobilising around the opportunity. We identify six actions that would help position the UK asa leading centre for CDR. They are:•Articulate the role of carbon removal in the UK’s net zero strategy•Set out how removal credits should be recognised within corporate transition plans•Put in place clear minimum standards for credits, with independent oversight•Include carbon removal in the UK Emissions Trading System (ETS)•Additional subsidies and financial support mechanisms forprojects•Support the development of the carbon market ecosystemThe research underpinning this report was led by Oliver Wyman in collaboration with theCity of London Corporation and the UK Carbon Markets Forum. © Oliver Wyman10203040Carbon removal credits issued between 2020 and 2023In megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e)5020202021+23%Source:ClimateFocus.com, BeZero, CDR.fyi, Oliver Wyman analysisDRIVERS OF CDR MARKET GROWTHGlobal issuance of CDR-backed carbon credits has grown at an average annual rate of 23%since 2020. By contrast, avoidance and reduction credits have declined by 7% annually overthe past three years, although they remain the bulk of the market today, accounting for 87%of voluntary carbon market (VCM) issuance in 2023. These credits are based on projects thatseek to offset emissions by avoiding the destruction of ecological systems that sequestercarbon dioxide (CO2) or reduce emissions through the replacement of carbon-intensiveactivities with lower carbon alternatives. One example is the global effort to replace charcoalcooking with more efficient, low-carboncookstoves.In recent years, environmental groups and others have raised questions about thevalidity of some of these credits, pointing to challenges in setting emission baselinesand demonstrating the additionality of the projects. The primary question is whetheravoidance projects lead to tangible cuts in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions in theatmosphere that would not otherwise have occurred.At the same time, there is increasing focus amongst corporates on how they will address theirresidual emissions. Net zero frameworks, such as the one from the Science-Based Targetsinitiative (SBTi), state that CDR credits may be used to address hard-to-abate residualemissions. As a result, an increasing number of corporates are beginning to explore the CDRmarket, while approaching the remainder of the carbon credit space with caution. © Oliver WymanThis pivot toward removal credits is also reflected in the widening price spread betweennature-based removal and avo