私人信贷——对银行和资产管理公司的影响

© Oliver WymanALTERNATIVES FIRMS NOW REPRESENT 2/3 OF MARKET CAP OF LISTED INVESTMENT FIRMSShare of market capitalisation of listed US independent investment managers1%, Jan 2010–Oct 20240%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Listed Traditional Asset Managers2BlackRockListed Alternative Asset Managers32010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320241. Share among selected peerset; 2. Listed Traditional Asset Managers includes T. Rowe Price Group, Janus Henderson, Invesco,Affiliated Managers Group, Franklin Resources, Federated Hermes, Cohen & Steers, Artisan Partners Asset Management, SEI InvestmentsCompany; 3. Listed Alternative Asset Managers includes Brookfield Asset Management, Bridge Investment Group, TPG, Apollo GlobalManagement, Ares Management Corporation, Blackstone, KKR & Co., Blue Owl Capital ,The Carlyle Group, Hamilton LaneSource: Capital IQ and Bloomberg, Data to October 21, 2024 © Oliver Wyman1. Multiple calculated with equal weight excluding outliers/zeros; 2.Listed Alternative Asset Managers includes Brookfield AssetManagement, Bridge Investment Group, TPG, Apollo Global Management, Ares Management Corporation, Blackstone, KKR & Co., BlueOwlCapital ,The Carlyle Group, Hamilton Lane; 3. Listed Traditional Asset Managers includes T. Rowe Price Group, Janus Henderson, Invesco, Affiliated Managers Group, Franklin Resources, Federated Hermes, Cohen & Steers, Artisan Partners Asset Management, SEIInvestments Company | Source: Capital IQ, Data to October 21, 2024Forward Price / Earnings NTM of listed US independent investment managers1Jan 2010–Oct 2024, monthly2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320240246810121416182022242628WHAT’S IN THE PRICE?ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT FIRMS NOW TRADE 2X THE P/E OFTRADITIONAL INVESTMENT FIRMS, REFLECTING EMBEDDED GROWTH PROSPECTSS&P 500BlackRockListed Alternative Asset Managers2Listed Traditional Asset Managers3 © Oliver WymanKEY DEBATES1The next wave of bankdisintermediation? Why is asset-basedlending in focus? How will bank-privatecredit partnershipsevolve? 4How to position aroundthe financial systemreshaping? © Oliver WymanKEY DEBATES1The next wave of bankdisintermediation? Why is asset-basedlending in focus? How will bank-privatecredit partnershipsevolve? 5How to position aroundthe financial systemreshaping? How many times, how many decades are wegoing to learn this lesson of borrowingovernight and lending long?Whether it was the 1970s, the 1980s and90s.... I expect more disintermediationMichael Milken, April 2023 © Oliver WymanPRIVATE CREDIT HAS BOOMED AND FORECAST TO DOUBLEIN 4-5 YEARSPrivate credit AUM by strategy$ TN, comingled funds only24%34%24%201420152016201720182019202020212022200020071%<0.117%0.50.50.60.70.80.21.11.31.40.9+14%+14%PEREInfra.+15%+8%+19%+15%+8%+13%CAGRs of other Private Markets funds1. 1.5TN is only the tip of the iceberg–we estimate that at least 3TN AUM is deployed in private debt via SMAs and Direct Investments (not inPreqindata) | Source:Preqin, excludes Funds of Funds © Oliver WymanCommercial paperCorporate lendingRMBsHigh yieldCMBSCredit cardsAuto loansSub-prime RMBSSynthetic credit risk1974–mid 1980s1980s–mid 1990sMid 1990s–2000s2000sUS BANK DISINTERMEDIATION HAS WORKED IN LONG WAVESSource: Private Credit’s Next Act, April 2024 by Huw van Steenis and colleagues, Oliver Wyman © Oliver WymanWE'VE SEEN 50+ YEARS OF US BANK DISINTERMEDIATION, WITH SOME WAXING ANDWANING–FURTHER SHIFTS TO COME THOUGH DEPENDENT ON REGS AND CYCLEUS bank share of total outstanding lending volume to households and non-financial businesses%, 1962-2023196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200019622004200620082010201220142016201830%35%40%45%50%55%60%2002Source: Private Credit’s Next Act, April 2024 by Huw van Steenis and colleagues, Oliver Wyman. Data from Federal Reserve Board,FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), Oliver Wyman analysis © Oliver WymanLESSONS FROM PREVIOUS WAVESTypically takes 2-3 years for weakened banks to recoverfrom large interest rate shocksOutdated financial regulations often exacerbate interestrate shocks (e.g. Regulation Q)Financial product innovation is a key enabler fordisintermediation (e.g. money market funds)Regulations aimed at addressing bank vulnerabilities caninadvertently push lending elsewhereFor more–seeFT op-edIsthe boom in private credit losing steam? Huw van Steenis, Financial Times April 23, 2024 © Oliver WymanPRIVATE CREDIT’S SHARE OF LEVERAGE LENDING EXCEEDED 80% IN 2023AS BANKS WEREON THE BACK FOOT–BUT THE GOLDEN MOMENT IS NOW BEHIND USShare of US LBO financing% of deals, Q2 2020–Q2 2024Share of US non-LBOs financing% of deals, Q2 2020–Q2 20240%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Q2Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2Broadly syndicated loansPrivate credit20202021202220230%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Q2Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2Broadly syndicated loansPrivate credit2020202120222023Source:PitchBookLCD, Oliver Wyman