私人信贷在经济增长中的新角色

© Oliver WymanWhy read thisreport?As we confront the need for huge capital expenditure for data centres, energy and thereshoring of industry to domestic markets, the open question is: who is going to financeit?Freshly emboldened US banks look set to take some of the opportunities under the morebenign regulatory backdrop of the new administration in Washington. But our contentionis, nonetheless, that leading private credit players, teaming up with insurers, could bridgean increasing portion of the finance needed for the coming investmentdemands.At the center of this transformation is the growing partnership between private creditplayers and insurers. Our new research suggests insurers now fund a remarkable 43%of the $2.1 trillion in credit assets held by the seven largest listed private market firms —up from 32% less than three years ago. With insurers driving over half of 2024’s inflows,private credit is gaining access to long-term, stable capital which is hungry for high-quality, inflation-resistant investments. This shift is redefining the scope of what privatecredit can finance, from cutting-edge data centers to energyprojects.In some ways, this represents a return to an older financing model. After the secondworld war, large insurers financed and even owned transformative infrastructure projectsandutilities.Yet challenges persist, particularly in Europe, where regulatory barriers have straight-jacketed insurers from playing a larger role in financing the real economy via private creditor through buying senior tranches ofsecuritisations.This note not only outlines these opportunities but also underscores the urgency foraction — whether it’s recalibrating regulations or addressing risks in borrower quality —fund the capexboom. © Oliver WymanAs we confront the need for massive capital expenditure for data centers, energy, and thereshoring of industry to domestic markets, the open question is: Who is going to financeit?Freshly emboldenedUS bankslook set to take some of the opportunities under the morebenign regulatory backdrop of the new administration in Washington. The sector’s shareprice gains since the US election suggest investors expect there will be more leeway ingeneral to deploy capital more profitably. Morgan Stanley estimates that if the so-calledBasel III global rules for banks are implemented in the US in a “capital neutral” way — thatis, with no net increase in capital demands — it could free up more than $86 billion of capitalfor the top 12 banks for financings orbuybacks.My contention is, nonetheless, that leading private credit players, teaming up with insurers,could bridge an increasing portion of the finance needed for the coming investmentdemands.The top seven listed private credit groups now have $2.1 trillion in credit assets betweenthem, including infrastructure and real estate debt. But traditional private credit markets arebecoming more crowded and are likely to become increasingly picked by banks as they putmore capital to work in large loans for leveraged buyouts and otherdeals.As a result, some private credit companies are striking out for greener pastures. Leadingplayers are pivoting to become less dependent on mid-market lending and acquisitionfinance and starting to become financiers of the huge capital expenditures needed for datacenters, the energy transition, and other hardassets.The US is expected to see more than$1 trillion invested in data centersover the next fiveyears, with an additional $1 trillion invested internationally, catering to the surging demandfor cloud computing and artificial intelligence applications, according to Blackstone. Theenergy required for all this will require additional investments — as will the transition togreener sources of power and increased energy demand ingeneral.Apollo Global chief executiveMarc Rowan argueswe may see private project finance deals asbig as $15 or $20 billion in the next year. These assets are complex, long-dated, and demandinnovative financing solutions that do not always easily align with traditional banking ordebtmarkets.Private credit at present only accounts for about 5% of the $5.5 trillion specialty financemarket,according toOliver Wyman. And the share is even lower for energy infrastructure.However, a profound shift in the funding model of private credit is now spurringexpansion.Our research suggests private credit assets funded by insurers at the top seven listedprivate market players now account for 43% of credit assets held by these companies, upfrom 32% at the end of 2021. This provides a source of long-term, stable capital to invest.Put another way, more than half of inflows in 2024 came frominsurers. © Oliver WymanInsurers require investment in long-duration assets that are inflation-resistant and highquality. Indeed, BlackRock chief financial officer Martin Small has spoken of the potential toflip 10% of its $700 billion insurance assets from core fixed income to private credit. This wasa key part of the