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德菲英引力？比特币、以太币和稳定币跨境流动的实证分析

2025-05-08国际清算银行申***

AI智能总结

Okay, let's talk about the "Big Bang". The Big Bang theory is the prevailing cosmological model for the universe from the earliest known periods until the present day. It describes the universe starting from a hot, dense initial state and expanding over time. Here are some key points:

The Singularity: The Big Bang theory suggests that the universe began from an infinitely dense and hot state known as the "Big Bang Singularity." However, this is a point where our current understanding of physics breaks down.
Expansion: The universe is expanding, and this expansion is observed through the redshift of light from distant galaxies. The further away a galaxy is, the faster it appears to be moving away from us.
Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB): The CMB is the residual heat left over from the Big Bang. It's a nearly uniform glow that fills all of space and is observed in the form of microwave radiation.
Large-Scale Structure: The Big Bang theory also explains the large-scale structure of the universe, including the distribution of galaxies and the cosmic web.
Nucleosynthesis: In the first few minutes after the Big Bang, the universe was hot and dense enough for nuclear reactions to occur, forming the lightest elements like hydrogen and helium.
Inflationary Theory: This is an extension of the Big Bang theory that proposes a period of extremely rapid expansion in the very early universe, which helps explain the flatness and homogeneity of the universe.

Now, let's discuss some common misconceptions about the Big Bang:

The Big Bang was an explosion in space: This is a common analogy, but it's not entirely accurate. The Big Bang wasn't an explosion in space; it was the expansion of space itself. Imagine a balloon with dots on its surface. As the balloon inflates, the dots move away from each other, but the balloon itself is expanding. The dots are like galaxies, and the balloon surface is like space.
We see the Big Bang: We don't see the Big Bang itself; we see the light from distant galaxies that has traveled across the universe for billions of years to reach us. The CMB is the closest we get to seeing the "afterglow" of the Big Bang.
The Big Bang created matter and energy: The Big Bang didn't create matter and energy; it created the conditions for matter and energy to exist and evolve. According to the standard model of particle physics, matter and energy are interchangeable (E=mc²), and they were present in some form even before the Big Bang.

Finally, here are some open questions and areas of ongoing research in Big Bang cosmology:

What happened before the Big Bang? This is one of the biggest mysteries in cosmology. While some theories, like the cyclic universe model, propose that the Big Bang was preceded by a previous universe, there is currently no consensus.
What is dark matter? Dark matter is a type of matter that doesn't interact with electromagnetic forces but exerts gravitational effects. It makes up about 27% of the universe and is a major focus of research.
What is dark energy? Dark energy is a mysterious force that is accelerating the expansion of the universe. It makes up about 68% of the universe and is another major focus of research.
The nature of the very early universe: Inflationary theory proposes a period of rapid expansion, but the details of what happened during this period are still being explored.

The Big Bang theory is a fascinating and constantly evolving field of study. It's a testament to the power of science to help us understand the origins and evolution of the universe. Do you have any specific questions about the Big Bang or related concepts?

Tether, BISWorking Papers are written by members of the Monetary and EconomicDepartment of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by othereconomists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topicalinterest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of theirauthors and not necessarily the views of the BIS.This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org).©Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may bereproduced or translated provided the source is stated.ISSN 1020-0959 (print)ISSN 1682-7678 (online) DeFiying Gravity? An Empirical Analysis ofCross-Border Bitcoin, Ether and Stablecoin Flows∗Raphael Auer†, Ulf Lewrick‡, Jan Paulick§May 2025AbstractWe investigate trends and drivers of cross-border flows of the two major native cryp-toassets (Bitcoin and Ether) and the two major asset-backed stablecoins (Tetherand USD Coin) between 184 countries from 2017 to 2024. These flows are substan-tial, peaking at around USD 2.6 trillion in 2021, with stablecoins accounting forclose to half the volume. The unique bilateral data allow us to estimate the driversof these flows in a gravity framework, and how they differ across different typesof crypto assets.Our findings highlight speculative motives and global fundingconditions as key drivers of native crypto asset flows. Transactional motives playa significant role in cross-border flows for stablecoins and low-value Bitcoin trans-actions, where we further find a strong association with higher costs of traditionalremittances.Geographic barriers play a diminished role compared to traditionalfinancial flows, and capital flow management measures appear ineffective.JEL Codes:F24, F32, F38, G15, G23Keywords:Cryptocurrency; payments; cross-border flows; blockchain; decentralised finance;capital flow management; Bitcoin; Ether; USD Coin; Tether; stablecoins; remittances.For helpful comments, we thank Matteo Aquilina, Martin Diehl, Jon Frost, Ronald Heijmans,William Zhang and seminar participants at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), UC SantaBarbara, and at the Bank of Canada and Deutsche Bundesbank international conference on paymentsand securities settlement. We thank Sally Dubach, Maximilian Schrader and Violeta Vuletic for expertassistance with the data. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and notnecessarily those of the BIS or of the Deutsche Bundesbank.The use of any maps in this paper doesnot constitute, and should not be construed as constituting, an expression of a position by the BIS orthe Deutsche Bundesbank regarding the legal status of, or sovereignty of any territory or its authorities,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and/or to the name and designation of anyterritory, city or area.BIS and CEPR. raphael.auer@bis.orgBIS and University of Basel. ulf.lewrick@bis.org (corresponding author)BIS and Deutsche Bundesbank. jan.paulick@bis.org1 ∗†‡§ 1IntroductionGauging cryptoasset flows across borders remains a huge gap in international finance.The crypto and decentralised finance (DeFi) ecosystem has grown rapidly, spurred byspeculation and rising acceptance of cryptoassets in mainstream finance.Cryptoassetsare increasingly being integrated into exchange-traded funds, futures and other conven-tional financial instruments. However, despite total market capitalisation exceeding thatof large national stock markets, the macroeconomic implications of cryptoassets – in-cluding their underlying use cases and risks during market turmoil – remain poorly un-derstood.A key challenge is that cryptoassets operate on decentralised infrastructuretranscending national boundaries, unlike conventional financial networks governed by in-termediary institutions and established regulations. In this context, new types of oftenelusive intermediaries have emerged in crypto markets.In this paper, we shed light on a key type of crypto flows: cross-border transactions.We investigate the trends and drivers of these flows using novel bilateral cross-countrydata covering both native cryptoassets and asset-backed stablecoins across up to 184countries from Q1 2017 to Q2 2024.The data allow us to document the geography ofcrypto flows and to uncover the underlying drivers of crypto transactions across distinctcryptoassets.Specifically, the dataset encompasses Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum’s nativeasset Ether (ETH) and the two largest stablecoins by market capitalisation:Tether(USDT) and USD Coin (USDC). Including these heterogeneous cryptoassets makes itpossible to capture distinct use cases.We begin by documenting the magnitude, time variation and geography of globalcrypto flows. Across the four cryptoassets, international flows reached a peak of US$2.6trillion in 2021, roughly equivalent to 12% of global trade in goods at the time. Of thisamount, US$1.2 trillion was accounted for by stablecoins. Although transaction vol

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