如何增强军事能力——9个专家解决方案

© Oliver WymanTHE NEW GEOPOLITICAL REALITYAs the global strategic landscape continues to evolve dramatically, and Europe’s securityis increasingly threatened, the continent is grappling with the complexities of geopoliticalrelationships and growing uncertainty in thedefensesector. Enhancing national military capacitiesand capabilities has become a central focus for governments aiming to secure sovereignty, protectnational interests, and ensure preparedness in an increasingly volatile world. This paradigm shift— from decades of military ramp-down, to a new era of rearmament — may set a benchmark forother countries pursuing essential military resilience.The current geopolitical situation requires Europe to act quickly and decisively, asemphasizedbyEuropean Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in her presentation of the “ReArm Europe”plan. This includes addressing the immediate need to support Ukraine, while also assuminggreater responsibility for Europe’s owndefenseand security.Collaboration betweendefenseforces and the private sector will be critical to achieving this goal.When government and industry form effective partnerships, they create a “win-win” dynamic that iscrucial for quickly and efficiently procuring and developing resilient, adaptive and cutting-edgedefensesystems designed to address both current and future threats.To strengthen Europe’s safety and resilience, European countries are significantly increasingdefensespending. As part of its ReArm Europe plan, the European Commission recently announcedplans tomobilizenearly €800 billion, with the ambition of investing much of it over thenext fouryears. Most of this spending will be financed by government borrowing. Market analysts currentlyestimate a low fiscal multiplier (0.4-0.6) for this spending, assuming significant purchaseofweapons and armaments from outside Europe. However, the win-win dynamic presentedin this paper aims to ensure that the fiscal multiplier exceeds parity by generating returns incivilianapplications beyond military uses, fostering the growth of highlyspecializedtalent, and promotingboth public and private investment programs — with a strong emphasis on shifting toward intra-EUpurchases.THE STRATEGIC NEED FOR SOVEREIGN CAPABILITYSecuring essential military assets on domestic soil has never been more critical, particularly asEurope faces an assertive Russia and finds its traditional security alliances challenged. As supplychains become more vulnerable, backlogs among Primes — the key industrial players in armamentproduction — are increasing. Although Europe has a capable and well-roundeddefenseindustrialand technology base, member states must strive for greater strategic autonomy.Governments and industrial players need to find a delicate balance between meetingimmediatedefenserequirements and accelerating the investment in future capabilities. Boththe short-termexpansion of capacities and the process of future-proofing a nation’s military demand forward-thinking strategies, flexibility, andinnovation. © Oliver WymanBUILDING THE RIGHT CAPABILITIES FOR RESILIENCEIn an era where technological obsolescence occurs rapidly, it is essential fordefenseforces tobe able to deploy new capabilities quickly. Traditional processes, often involving lengthyapproval timelines and development cycles, are increasingly inadequate in addressingfast-changing threats. A key priority in moderndefensestrategy is adopting agile productdevelopment and production — an approach that emphasises flexibility, speed, andadaptabilityin military technology.To meet these increasingly high demands, software-based and modular systems will be key.Equally important is leveraging dual-use technologies and Research and Development (R&D)initiatives that can serve both civilian and military needs, harnessing the typically faster paceof innovation of the commercial sector.With Europe’s reliance on US technological capabilities posing a risk, it is essential to addressthis critical gap in technology-enabled warfare capabilities. This includes, for example,organizing command and control, delivering reliant and timely Suppression of Enemy AirDefence (SEAD) and Destruction of Enemy Air Defence (DEAD), enhancing air and missiledefense, and developing long-range and deep-strike capabilities. Additionally, it is crucial toevolve key areas such as space-based Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR),battlespace C4 (Command, Control, Communications, Computers), spectrum resilience andoffence, tactical drones, Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) and Counter-Unmanned AerialSystem(C-UAS).OPTIMISINGDEFENSEPROCUREMENT AND DEMANDSEurope’sdefenseexpenditures are set to increase significantly, providing a boost to nationaldefenseindustries. However, investing in national capability development alone will not beenough. To enhance efficiency and effectiveness, faster procurement and pooled demandstrategies are essential.The risk management approach of procurement agencies, shape