在关税纷争时刻，世界能否找到平衡与信任以实现繁荣？

Geopolitics Practice, McKinsey Global Institute, and Strategy & Corporate Finance PracticeIn a moment of tariffs, can the world find balanceand trust to thrive? Amid tariff uncertainty and a possible recession, the world needs a newbase of balance and trust to create a thriving economy. Business has avital role to play. This article is a collaborative effort by Sven Smit, Shubham Singhal, Olivia White, Ezra Greenberg,Jan Mischke, Matt Watters, Cindy Levy, and Rebecca J. Anderson, representing views from McKinsey’sGeopolitics and Strategy & Corporate Finance Practices and the McKinsey Global Institute. A global system of full economic integration—the aspiration of decades of negotiations andthe worldwide underpinning of corporate strategy—has never been fully realized. The latestround of global trade talks sputtered to an inconclusive end in the early 2010s. But even asviews on the benefits and fairness of the system diverged among countries, there was no overtchallenge to the framework of global trade. That changed on April 2, 2025, when US tariffannouncements revealed in stark fashion some of the underlying discontent with this construct. In the weeks since the announcements, share prices and the US Treasury market have gyrated.Expectations of US inflation have spiked. Consumer confidence has plummeted back to lowslast seen in 2022, as inflation surged after the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first quarter, the USeconomy shrank by 0.3 percent, as companies pulled forward imports and inventories grew.Many analysts have raised their estimates of the probability of a global recession. After two yearsof nearly 3 percent real GDP growth, is the momentum in the US economy strong enough to workthrough these headwinds? In our view, the history that led to this volatile moment is important but not as important aswhat comes next. Many will agree that global and local economies need to find a new balance:a United States that produces more of what it consumes, a China that consumes more of whatit produces, a Europe that is competitive and can grow, and a “global south” that connectswith advanced economies and finds its path to prosperity. To achieve these outcomes, leadersof business, government, and society can extend their attention beyond today’s trade andbudget deficit debates to ask what they can do to get the global economy on the path toachieve this goal. In that sense, the question now isn’t whether the current path of escalating tariffs and tradetensions is the right one. More critically, the question is whether the path that leaders choosenext will further erode trust among countries and within societies, or will the path begin to rebuildthat trust? Will leaders choose to continue down a seemingly unsustainable path? Or will theychoose to balance economic resilience and national security needs? Economies need stableand secure investment environments to grow and prosper. They also need reliable partners.Economies without balance and trust can’t thrive (Exhibit 1). The extent of balance and trust candetermine the distribution of income across populations. Several key indicators can show howbalance and trust affect economic outcomes. Economies without balanceand trust can’t thrive. Exhibit 1 Can the global economic system gain the trust and balance to thrive? Trust &thrive That’s our focus. We consider questions such as: What are the balance- and trust-baseddynamics of a thriving global economy, what is the relevant context, and what are the five globalscenarios for future growth that we believe can help people navigate the path forward? We offersome signposts that CEOs and others can use to see which scenario might be unfolding. Balance and trust to thrive There are many ways to describe athrivingmarket economy, but at its best, it’s a system thatseeks abalancebetween freedom and fairness, deficits and surpluses, and the distribution ofproduction and consumption. It extends opportunity to all, fosters innovation, protects choice,and rewards effort. By prioritizingtrust, instilling confidence, and encouraging long-terminvestment, it drives sustained productivity growth and rising living standards while avoidingnegative externalities. How doesbalanceaffect the ability of an economy to thrive? External balance reflects healthydomestic production and trade. Internal balance signals sustainable fiscal policies. Householdbalance indicates sound saving, debt management, and human capital investment. Corporatebalance reflects long-term orientation to the effective allocation of wages, distributed profits,and retained earnings needed for investment. Balance also entails resilience and security.Resilience requires domestic production or reliable access to essential goods, such aspharmaceuticals. Security relies on the capacity to procure or produce the critical goods andservices needed to deter external threats and support allies. Lack of balance risks financialinstability and degrades the capacity to invest i