运动服装行业：竞争加剧中的强劲增长前景

Sector UpdateSportswear Arianna Valezano, CFA| Senior Analyst –Consumer Goods – EMEA Rocco Semerano| Director Lead Analyst– Consumer Goods – EMEA Raam Ratnam| Managing Director,Sector Lead– Consumer & Retail– EMEA Robust growth prospects amid intensifying competition June 25, 2024 This report does not constitute a rating action Contents Industry overview and key takeaways3 Selected rated entities in sportswear14 Selected rated entities’ business and financialconsiderations Recent rating actions and publications24 S&P Global Ratings contacts27 Industry Overview AndKey Takeaways Key Takeaways The sportswear industry has solid growth prospects.Demand is underpinned by the increasing number of women in sports, thecasualization of dress codes, and continued penetration in APAC. Short-term challenges in 2024 relate to how quickly consumer confidence recovers.Competitive pressures will remain high; from localbrands such as Anta in China, newer brands such as OnRunning and Hoka, and well-performing brands like lululemon and New Balance. We expect volumes and product innovation will drive growth in 2024, with a moderate price contribution as inflation eases.A step up inmarketing expenses to support previous price hikes and promote new products could weigh on profitability expansion. As inventory levelsgradually normalize, we expect a more subdued promotional environment. The sportswear industry has a global and complex supply chain with more than 80% of suppliers located in APAC. Geopolitical tensionsand conflicts pose risks to the efficient functioning of the supply chain. Disruptions in the Red Sea created temporary product availabilityissues, caused delays in shipments, and increased freight costs, but most large brands have been able to navigate these challenges. The direct-to-consumer channel (including e-commerce) remains a key focus,ensuring brand visibility and proximity to consumers, howeverwholesale partners have a critical role in attracting a more diverse consumer base and managing high volumes. Sportswear companies’ strategies around environmental and social topics are central to preserving their license to operate andprotecting brand reputation.We expect an increasing focus on sustainable products, led by eco-friendly materials, while maintaining corecompetencies based on the performance benefits of sports apparel and footwear. Industry Growth Prospects | Solid Growth Projected To Continue •As of 2023, the value of the global sportswear industry is close to US$395 billion at retail value selling price, growing with a CAGR ofabout 4.5% over 2009-2023. Sportswear has recovered quickly following the pandemic; retail value in 2021 had already exceeded 2019levels. •Sportswear should expand by about 6%-7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 2024-2028, by retail value at current prices(Euromonitor). But we estimate rated entities such as Nike, Adidas, and VF will grow by the low-to-mid single digits in 2024-2025, due tohigh competition and soft demand as consumers focus spending on staples, services, and travel instead of discretionary apparel andfootwear. Competitive Landscape | Local And Niche Brands Are Gaining Market Shares •Despite increasing competition from more agile, local players or brands with a focus on niche sports such as lululemon, Hoka, and On Running, Nikecontinues to increase its market share thanks to its established position, marketing, and innovation capabilities. •The decline in Adidas and Under Armour’s market shares is due to increased competition in North America, which the groups intend to face by resetting theirproduct portfolios. •China has seen an increasing preference for domestic brands after the controversy around Xinjiang cotton in March 2021, which saw a backlash fromChinese consumers against foreign sportswear companies such as Nike, Adidas, and Puma. Industry Growth Drivers | Sportswear Brands Set To Benefit From Supportive Trends APAC market will continue to grow fast Athleisure fashion trends •APAC accounted for 26% of the global sportwear industry in 2023 withChina representing about half of it.•Sportswear in APAC saw a strong rebound in 2023, driven by local brandssuch as Anta. Thisfollows a decline in 2022 due to zero-COVID policyrestrictions and supply-chain disruptions. We forecast APAC will be thefastest growing region over 2024-2028, with CAGR close to 10%.•Growth in China is backed by government initiatives to encourage activeparticipation in sports such as the “Health China 2030” program. •The surge in popularity of athleisure and the casualization of fashionwill continue.•Ongoing working-from-home and hybrid-working trends are supportive,with consumers looking for more comfortable attire.•Health and wellness-focused lifestyles will promote sales of sportswear,with consumers focused on balancing functionality, comfort, and style. Balancing e-commerce with physical stores Women and children’s sportswear is gaining momentum •A