燃油市场周报

GTJA Futures Research InstituteKefang Liang（Analyst）Advisor y Code：Z0019111Date：2025年5月4日 CONTENTS Import & Export Price & Spread Supply Demand Inventory Summary Refinery UtilizationGlobal Refinery MaintenanceProduction and Supply Asian MarketEuropean MarketAmerican MarketOTC Swap MarketChinese Future MarketSpread in Physical marketGlobal Fuel Oil CrackGlobal Fuel Oil Swap’sTerm Structure Global Fuel Oil Inventory Chinese MarketWeekly Global Import andExport amount: HSFOWeekly Global Import andExport amount: LSFO Global Fuel Oil Demand Summary Summary Summary ◆Review：Global fuel oil prices fell overall this week, with crack and calendar spreads remaining stable for the time being. At the sametime,there were marginal changes in the strength comparison between HSFO and LSFO, with LSFO valuations temporarily stronger thanHSFO. ◆Outlook：This week, fuel oil prices generally fell along with crude oil prices. However, since the current seasonal rigid demand for bunkerand power generation supports the valuation of the entire fuel oil market, this round of decline has not caused obvious fundamentalnegatives in the fuel oil market, and crack, calendar spread remain stable for the time being.However, as crude oil prices and foreign spotprices have fallen significantly during the holiday period, and there was news of OPEC's production increase over the weekend, it isexpected that FU and LU will see a significant decline on the first trading day after the holiday.Fromthe perspective of the strengthcomparison between HSFO and LSFO, due to the obvious recovery of Middle East HSFO spot exports and overvaluation in the earlystage,Singapore HSFO performed slightly weaker than LSFO in terms of price, resulting in a continuous narrowing of the Hi-5 spread, and theupward trend of crack has gradually weakened. At present, based on the maintenance of large refineries in the Middle East andthebottoming out of ship fuel and power generation demand, the short-term valuation retracement of HSFO may be relatively limited,and theweak performance may gradually come to an end. In terms of LSFO, it should be noted that although Brazil and Indonesia havemaintenance, due to the maintenance of upgrade units of the Nigerian refinery, the refinery will gradually increase the output of LSFO, furtherincrease the supply of LSFO to global refineries, and thus suppress the global LSFO price. At the same time, the new regulationson bunkerin the Mediterranean region will take effect in May, and there is a certain probability that some of the 0.5% will flow to othermarkets,especially the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, although LSFO has performed relatively strongly in the early stage, the fundamental negativefactors still exist and it is not advisable to be overly optimistic. Supply Refinery Utilization CDU Utilization of Chinese State-ownedRefineries CDU Utilization of Chinese IndependentRefineries CDU Utilization of Chinese Refineries 原油：常减压：产能利用率：中国炼厂（周） 原油：主营炼厂：产能利用率：中国（周） Global Refinery Maintenance Global Maintenance: CDU Production and Supply Demand Global Fuel Oil Demand Inventory Global Fuel Oil Inventory Fuel Inventory: Singapore Fuel Inventory: Fujairah Price & Spread Asian Market Singapore 0.5% 380CST FOB Singapore 3.5% 380CST FOB European Market NWE 0.5% 380CST FOB American Market OTC Swap Market Chinese Future Market Spread in Physical market Spread between HSFO and LSFO FOB price in Singapore——Hi-5 Spread Viscosity Spread in Singapore Global Fuel Oil Crack Singapore LSFO crack Singapore HSFO crack 新加坡高硫裂解价差 Global Fuel Oil Swap’s Term Structure Import & Export Chinese Market Monthly Export amount: Fuel Oil Monthly Import amount: Fuel Oil 燃料油，不含生物柴油：进口数量合计：中国（月） Weekly Global Import and Export amount: HSFO Weekly Global Import and Export amount: LSFO ThecompanyhasthequalificationoffuturestradingconsultingbusinessapprovedbytheCSRC. TheviewsandinformationinthiscontentareonlyforthereferenceofprofessionalinvestorsofGTJAFutures.Itisdifficulttosetaccesspermissionsforthiscontent.Ifitcausesinconveniencetoyou,pleaseunderstand.IfyouarenotaprofessionalinvestorinGTJAFutures,pleasedonotread,subscribeorreceiveanyrelevantinformation.Thiscontentdoesnotconstitutetherecommendationof specificbusinessesorproducts,norshoulditbeconsideredastheinvestmentrecommendationofcorrespondingfinancialderivatives.Pleasemakeyourowninvestmentdecisionsandbeartheinvestmentrisksaccordingtoyourownrisktolerance.Youshouldnotrelyonthiscontentforspecificoperations. AnalystCertification TheauthorhasthefuturesinvestmentconsultingpracticequalificationorequivalentprofessionalcompetencegrantedbytheChinaFuturesIndustryAssociation,andensuresthatthedatausedinthereportarefromcompliancechannels.Theanalysislogicisbasedontheauthor'sprofessionalunderstanding.Thisreportclearlyandaccuratelyreflectstheauthor'sresearchviews,andstrivestobeindependent,objectiveandfair.Theconclusionisnotinspiredoraffectedbyanythirdparty.Itisherebydeclared.