美国国际集团（AIG）：2025年第一季度有得有失，但承保利润率和增长势头良好；2026-27年每股收益不变

1Q25 Takeaways: Some Puts/Takes, but ER +Growth Momentum; '26/27 EPS Unchanged Pricing moderated QoQ in NA Comm'l, driven by weaker property rate, whereascasualty remains firm. Loss trends were unchanged on long-tail lines, andthough mgmt does not anticipate any changes in underlying loss ratios,we model business mix modestly driving up AYLR. Growth opportunitiesremain available as Lexington continues to execute strongly, with the overallcompany seeing favorable new business flows and solid retentions. PT $95(16% potential return). We lower our 2025 EPS estimate by 2% to $6.40, reflecting the 8% beat in 1Q25 but offset by the1% decrease to our 2Q25-4Q25 estimate. Our revised 2025 estimate is lower from 60bps lighterfavorable PYD (1.3pts FY24) and slighter higher AYLR (56.7% Total GI) given some allocation ofloss adjustment expenses and business mix shift. Our 2026/2027 EPS estimates of $8.15/$9.40are mostly unchanged. PT $95 (16% potential return). North America Comm'l:We model 7% NPW growth in NA Comm'l for the rest of the year, andmaintain our 6% into 2026. We model flat underlying LRs of 61.7% in 2025, but estimate ~1pt ofdeterioration in 2026. We expect some mix-driven underlying LR deterioration in 2026 to be offsetby improved ER given operating scale and cost saves as we expect the majority of saves from AIG200 to be in this segment (thus our Int'l Comm'l ERs are now slightly higher). International Comm'l:We model 6% average NPW growth for the rest of 2025, followed by 4% in2026. We model modest AYLR deterioration YoY for '25E-'27E, as the segment has been operatingat exceptional LRs but has mostly seen some moderation in pricing. Furthermore, we anticipatesome continued modest impact from ULAE in 2025 AYLR. We model 53.9%/54.0%/54.5% for'25E-'27E (vs. 52.9% in 2024). We model higher ERs YoY in 2025 with improvement beginning in2026. We model underlying CRs of 84.6%/83.9%/84.0% for '25E-'27E. Note June '24 deconsolidation of CRBG GlobalPersonal:We continue to model high reported CRs across 2025-2026,reflecting99.8%/97.0% in our estimates, before improving to 95.5% in 2027. Over time, we see the potentialfor greater underwriting profit given improvement in ERs and lower CAT losses, along with growthin A&H (CR generally under 90%). Source: FactSet, Jefferies Continued below... Andrew Andersen * | Equity Analyst(312) 750-4445 | aandersen@jefferies.comSuneet Kamath, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 778-8602 | skamath@jefferies.comCharlie Rodgers * | Equity Associate+1 (312) 750-4783 | crodgers@jefferies.com The Long View: AIG Investment Thesis / Where We Differ •Expect AIG to post faster EPS growth than P&C peers following CRBGseparation. Our view reflects P&C earnings momentum driven by NII, lossratio improvement, expense rationalization, scale and PYD. The company istargeting a return on core operating equity of 10% in 2025 and is prioritizingreturning capital to shareholders as it believes it is overcapitalized relativeto the size of its business today. Upside Scenario,$120, +43% Downside Scenario,$56, -33% Base Case,$95, +14% •Pricing declines faster than anticipated•Loss trends deteriorate•Flattish NPW growth•40-80bps underlying margin expansion•Mid-single digit Op ROE•BVPS ex AOCI: $61.20 /Target multiple: 0.9x /Price Target: $56 •Pricing momentum continues over next year•Loss trends moderating•Mid-single digit NPW growth•150-250bps underlying margin expansion•Low double-digit Op ROE•BVPS ex AOCI: $80.80 /Target multiple: 1.5x /Price Target: $120 •Pricing moderates over next year•Loss trends stable•Low-single digit NPW growth•Moderate underlying margin expansion•High-single digit Op ROE•BVPS ex AOCI: $70.29 /Target multiple: 1.4x /Price Target: $95 Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top Material Issue(s):1) Physical effects of climate change -In an underwriting capacity, AIG is exposedto loss events (particularly catastrophes) that are increasing in severity and frequency as a result ofclimate change. These natural catastrophes present risks and market opportunities.2) Data security -AIG handles sensitive personal identifiable information (PII) and is therefore exposed to cybersecurityrisk as a custodian of such data. •Rate momentum earning in results•Continued underlying margin improvement•Further capital management actions Company Target(s):1)Reach net-zero emissions in underwriting and investment portfolios by 2050.2)Use of 100% renewable energy in all operations by 2030. Question(s) for Management: 1)What is the margin impact of changes you are implementing toreduce emissions to reach your climate goals?2)How do you safeguard consumer data and personalidentifiable information (PII), and what steps are you taking to improve data protection?3)How areyou balancing premium growth and climate risk exposure (catastrophe or otherwise), and how has thisstrategy changed following the sale of Validus? Linkto Market commentary and pricing:Global Commercial pricing (rate + exposure) exclu