福泰制药（VRTX）：电话会议的五个要点 - Journavx Rx高于第三方数据所示

5 takeaways from call - Journavx Rx higher than3rd party data implies While Q1 was lighter than norm, we aren't concerned and still see VRTX as oneof the core holdings and maintain our positive view given less earnings andclinical data risk this year + 3 major Phase III readouts in 2026 that could havethe stock at $575-650 if positive - eg Phase III DPN pain and APOL1 kidney dataare big. Acute pain Journavx is underway - takes time, but Rx growing + payorcoverage going into place (co affirmed Rx data is higher than IMS). We con't to like VRTX given: (1) earnings visibility (2) no major clinical trial binary risk this yr andlowest tariff risk in biopharma.... Ultimately - Street focus on Journavx acute pain sales - cons is$85M tho buyside lower (mgmt bullish on payor access). Co reiterated sales in H1 will be smallgiven free drug initially and sales driven in H2 upon contracts in place. 5 Takeaways: 1) Journavx Rx +20% w/w and higher than what IMS is saying.Mgmt confirmed TRx 20kcumulative thru 4/18 + but latest week was record at 25k at 4/25 implying +5k or 20% w/w growth.This is higher than IMS of 18k and different from thedecelerationover the last few weeks per IMS.They think avg Rx is ~14 day Rx and also higher than ~7 days in models. 2. We're looking for a 3x increase in Rx by year-end to get to $250M run-rate by YE (see new Rxcalculator analysis Page 3):We spoke w/ mgmt - they are seeing Journavx scripts now flowingthrough hospitals and not well accounted in IMS and we est could be 1/3 of the channel. Our modelimplies they need to grow 3x from here by Q4 (ie 9k/wk up from 3k/wk) to get to $5M/wk run-rateor $200-250M run-rate annualized by YE. 3. Important Phase II next-gen '993 acute pain data H2 - will compare to Journavx....read throughto acute and chronic next-gen drug?Per comments on the call - the "next-gen" Journavx '993copmpletes enrollment in Q2 and data in H2 (we est late Q3). Co says w/ caveats of cross-txcomparison - this drug has significantly higher drug exposure and full dose range and "may" havehigher efficacy than Journavx + pot'l to combine with Nav 1.7 coming soon. 4. On tariffs and MFN risk:Co reiterated what we've been saying - CF is mostly all USA manuf andIP is mostly all US/UK. Investors have been increasingly keen on Medicaid and MFN risk - co says20% Medicaid exposure but MFN fluid - there is pt assistance programs and certainly CF has sighigh unmet need and basically no options/alternatives if Medicaid cuts come out in 2026 FederalBudget (we're watching). Michael J. Yee * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1535 | michael.yee@jefferies.com Dina Elmonshed * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8388 | delmonshed@jefferies.com 5. Phase III DPN chronic pain data next year likely.Mgmt doesnt disagree w/ our math on currentenrollment speed of DPN and data in 2026. This makes three big catalysts that could each moveVRTX 5-15%+ to $575+ or higher: (1) Phase III DPN 10-15% either way (we're 50/50 given recent Jenna Li * | Equity Associate(332) 236-6891 | jli9@jefferies.com Kyle Yang, CFA * | Equity Associate(212) 284-2260 | kyle.yang@jefferies.com Matthew Hagood * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8293 | mhagood@jefferies.com Madeleine Lee * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8733 | mlee6@jefferies.com The Long View: Vertex Investment Thesis / Where We Differ VRTX has a robust CF base business with a new "triple pill" regimen launchingthis year (lower royal burden) and we see the co as likely to con't to executeand beat/raise. We see low expectations for the early acute pain launch andlimited binary clinical trial risk this year. We expect the stock to remain acore defensive large cap biotech holding and see upside potential into 2026with three major Phase III readouts coming (DPN chronic pain, APOL1 kidneydisease, IgAN povetacicept). Upside Scenario,$650, +30% Downside Scenario,$380, -24% Base Case,$575, +15% •Our $650 upside scenario price target applies ahigher blended probability-based DCF analysisto the pipeline.•This scenario assumes pipeline data is betterthan expected and competitively differentiated,which would drive better revenue growth andhigher peak sales.•This includes significantly better-than-expectedAMKD data, positive diabetes data includingthe efficacy and safety for the cells/device"combination"program and next-gen painprograms.•Upside SOTP supports $300/sh of CF basebiz, $60/sh cash, and $290/sh PoS-adjustedpipeline value. •Our$575 PT reflects continued strong CFbusiness,with upside from the new triple-pill(lower royalty)and pot'l inhaled LNP/mRNA therapy for nonsense mutations ($1Bopportunity).•We also factor in value from new launchesincluding gene edit SCD and acute pain, aswell as value from late-stage programs withreasonablePoS,including Phase III APOL1,IgAN, diabetes, etc.•Our SOTP supports$325/sh of CF basebiz, $60/sh cash, and $190/sh PoS-adjustedpipeline value. •Our $380 downside scenario price target isbasedon a DCF that assumes a weaker-than-expected CF