天然气市场报告

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energyissues including oil, gas and coal supply anddemand, renewable energy technologies,electricity markets, energy efficiency, access toenergy, demand side management and muchmore. Through its work, the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 32Member countries,13Association countries andbeyond. SpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States IEAMember countries:Australia AustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak Republic TheEuropean Commissionalso participates in the workof the IEA This publication and any map included herein arewithout prejudice to the status of or sovereigntyover any territory, to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers and boundaries and to thename of any territory, city or area. IEAAssociation countries: ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract Global natural gas demand continued to expand through the2024/25 heating season, with growth primarily driven by Europe andNorth America. Underground storage facilities and reservemechanisms provided crucial flexibility to the gas system andensured stable and secure gas supplies over the 2024/25 heatingseason. In 2025, global gas demand growth is forecast to slow fromthe previous year amid tighter market conditions, while heightenedmacroeconomic uncertainties may also weigh on demand. Beyond the growing complexity of gas supply security both in theshort and long term, the decarbonisation of gas and the broaderenergy system will require the deployment and scaling up of low-emissions gases. Part of the IEA’s Low-Emissions Gases WorkProgramme, this quarterlyGas Market Reportincludes a specialsection on the nascent trade in low-emissions gases. Low gas storage levels and reduced piped gas exports from Russiato the European Union are expected to keep market fundamentalstight. Supported by higher storage injection needs, Europe’s LNGimports are forecast to increase in 2025 to near their all-time highs.In contrast, China’s LNG imports are forecast to decline due toweaker domestic demand growth and the strong competition fromEurope for flexible LNG cargoes. With the global gas balance remaining fragile in an increasinglycomplex geopolitical context, responsible producers and consumersneed to work together to reinforce efforts to ensure reliable gassupplies. This will be among the topics addressed at theinternationalSummit on the Future of Energy Security, convened bythe IEA, in partnership with the UK Government, on 24-25 April2025. Table of contents Executive summary........................................................................................................................ 5Gas market update....................................................................................................................... 10Low-emissions gases................................................................................................................... 45Annex ........................................................................................................................................... 54 Global gas demand growth is expected to slow in 2025 amid macroeconomic uncertainties Following the gas supply shock of 2022/23, natural gas demandreturned to structural growth in 2024 andcontinued to expandthrough the 2024/25 heating season1. Growth was primarilyconcentrated in Europe and North America, with weatherconditions, including lower temperatures, leading to stronger gasuse in buildings and the power sector. In contrast,gas demandgrowth slowed in Asiaamid higher spot liquefied natural gas(LNG) prices and a milder winter in the People’s Republic of China(hereafter “China”). internationalSummit on the Future of Energy Security,inpartnership with the UK government. The Summit will addresstraditional and emerging risks related to energy security, includingthose affecting natural gas and LNG value chains. Europe and North America led demand growth through the2024/25 winter season while Asian markets slowed Natural gas demand patterns varied significantlyacross key gasmarkets, largely driven by weather conditions. Preliminary dataindicate thatnatural gas consumption increased by 1.8%, or justbelow 35 billion cubic metres (bcm), year-on-year (y-o-y) through the2024/25 heating season in the selected markets covered in thecurrent market update2. In contrast with previous years, this relativelystrong growth was largelydriven by Europe and North America. Tighter market fundamentals put upward pressure on gaspricesacross all key markets, whilegeopolitical tensionshavealso continued to fuel price volatility. Below-average