WSJ-为什么永远不会有另一个巴菲特 –20250506

https://www.wsj.com/inance/investing/why-there-will-never-be-another-warren-buett-2b5fa268 MARKETS & FINANCEINVESTINGTHE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR Why There Will Never Be AnotherWarren Buffett为什么永远不会有另⼀个沃伦·巴菲特 Three things combined to make Buett, the stock-intoxicatedman, an unrivaled investor 三件事结合起来，使巴菲特这个沉迷于股票的⼈成为⽆与伦⽐的投资者 ByJason Zweig作者：Jason ZweigFollow May 3, 2025 8:30 pmET和 There’s only oneWarren Buffett, and there will never be another. 只有⼀个沃伦·巴菲特，⽽且永远不会有另⼀个。 On May 3, Buffett announced thathe will step downas chief executive ofBerkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate he has built into one ofthe most successful investments in history. There are three reasons why he hasno equal and never will: the person, the period and the package.BRK.B1.80% 5⽉3⽇，巴菲特宣布他将辞去伯克希尔哈撒韦公司BRK.B1.80%的⾸席执⾏官职务，他将这家企业集团打造成历史上最成功的投资之⼀。他没有平等和永远不会的原因有三个：⼈、时期和套餐。 Let’s start with the person. Buffett is not only brilliant, but he has also spentnearly his entire long lifetime obsessed with the stock market. Especially in hisearly years as an investor, his unparalleled success depended on an unbearablesacrifice: forgoing a normal social and family life. 让我们从⼈开始。巴菲特不仅才华横溢，⽽且他⼏乎整个漫长的⼀⽣都痴迷于股市。尤其是在他作为投资者的早期，他⽆与伦⽐的成功取决于⼀个难以承受的牺牲：放弃正常的社交和家庭⽣活。 A later writer called the great 17th-century philosopher Baruch Spinoza “thegod-intoxicated man.” Buffett is the stock-intoxicated man. 后来的⼀位作家称17世纪伟⼤的哲学家巴鲁克·斯宾诺莎为“醉神的⼈”。巴菲特是那个陶醉于股票的⼈。 Ever since 1942, whenhe bought his first stock at age 11, he has devouredinformation about companies, reading corporate reports the way most peoplelisten to music. ⾃从1942年11岁买下第⼀只股票以来，他就如饥似渴地阅读有关公司的信息，像⼤多数⼈听⾳乐⼀样阅读公司报告。 As a young investment manager, Buffett would wander through his house withhis nose in a corporate annual report, practically bumping into the furniture,oblivious to the comings and goings of family and friends. While his kidsplayed at an amusement park, he would sit on a bench andread financialstatements. Buffett was there physically, but mentally and emotionally he wasoff in a world of his own, fixated on tax-loss carryforwards and amortizationschedules. 作为⼀名年轻的投资经理，巴菲特会⽤⿐⼦在公司年度报告中在他的房⼦⾥徘徊，⼏乎撞到家具，对家⼈和朋友的来来往往视⽽不见。当他的孩⼦们在游乐园玩耍时，他会坐在长凳上阅读财务报表。巴菲特在⾝体上在那⾥，但在精神上和情感上，他却在⾃⼰的世界⾥，专注于税收损失结转和摊销时间表。 Warren Buett attended the opening bell with New York Stock Exchange CEO John Thain andBusiness Wire’s Cathy Baron Tamraz in March 2006.PHOTO: MARIO TAMAGETTY IMAGES 2006年3⽉，沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buett）与纽约证券交易所⾸席执⾏官约翰·萨恩（John Thain）和美国商业资讯的凯茜·巴伦·塔姆拉兹（Cathy Baron Tamraz）⼀起出席了开市钟声。照⽚：Mario Tama/Getty Images Imagine being that obsessed. Imagine enjoying it. 想象⼀下你是多么的痴迷。想象⼀下享受它。 Now imagine enjoying it almost every waking moment ever since HarryTruman was in the White House. That’s how unusual Buffett is. 现在想象⼀下，⾃从哈⾥·杜鲁门（Harry Truman）⼊主⽩宫以来，他⼏乎每时每刻都享受着它。这就是巴菲特的不寻常之处。 Expertise is rooted in pattern recognition, and Buffett has seen everyconceivable pattern. Given what I know about his work habits, I estimate—conservatively, I believe—thatBuffett has readmore than 100,000 financialstatements in his more-than-seven-decade career. 专业知识植根于模式识别，巴菲特已经看到了所有可以想象的模式。根据我对巴菲特⼯作习惯的了解，我估计——保守地说，我相信——巴菲特在他七⼗多年的职业⽣涯中阅读了超过100,000份财务报表。 And his memory is almost supernatural. Years ago, winding up a phoneinterview with Buffett, I mentioned a book I was reading. He exclaimed that hehad also read it—more than a half-century earlier. As he began describing apassage, I grabbed the book, found the page and realized to my astonishmentthat Buffett recalled almost every sentence verbatim. 他的记忆⼒⼏乎是超⾃然的。⼏年前，在结束对巴菲特的电话采访时，我提到了我正在读的⼀本书。他惊呼说，他也读过这本书——半个多世纪前。当他开始描述⼀段话时，我抓起书，找到了那⼀页，惊讶地发现巴菲特⼏乎⼀字不差地记住了每⼀句话。 His unparalleled exposure to financial information, combined with hisprodigious memory, made Buffett into a human form of artificial intelligence.He could answer almost any query out of his own internal database. 他对⾦融信息⽆与伦⽐的接触，加上他惊⼈的记忆⼒，使巴菲特成为⼈类形式的⼈⼯智能。他⼏乎可以回答⾃⼰内部数据库中的任何查询。 That has given him an unparalleled ability to identify the kernel of significancein any new bit of information—and a durable advantage over other investors.Now that AI is universally available, a person with Buffett’s massive commandof data won’t even have an advantage in the future. 这使他具有⽆与伦⽐的能⼒，能够识别任何新信息中的重要性核⼼，并且⽐其他投资者具有持久的优势。现在⼈⼯智能已经普遍可⽤，拥有巴菲特海量数据掌控能⼒的⼈在未来甚⾄不会有任何优势。 沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buett）计划在年底辞去伯克希尔哈撒⻙公司（BerkshireHathaway）⾸席执⾏官的职务。照⽚：Vincent Tullo for WSJ Then there’s the period—the time over which Buffett has exercised hisinvesting prowess. As he has said many times, he won “the ovarian lottery” bybeing born when and where he was. 然后是时期——巴菲特发挥其投资实⼒的时间。正如他多次说过的那样，他通过在他所在的地⽅出⽣⽽赢得了“卵巢彩票”。 Had Buffett been born in Omaha in (say) 1880 instead of 1930, he would havehad to invest in livestock instead of stocks. Had he been born in 1930 in Omsk instead of Omaha, he wouldn’t have owned railways; he probably would haveworked on the Trans-Siberian Railway. 如果巴菲特在1880年⽽不是1930年出⽣在奥马哈，他将不得不投资畜牧业⽽不是股票。如果他1930年出⽣在鄂⽊斯克⽽不是奥马哈，他就不会拥有铁路;他可能会在西伯利亚⼤铁路上⼯作。 And Buffett happened to