跨学科主题研究：下周经济指标与公司财报预览

Date25 April 2025 Thematic Research Next week... this week Galina PozdnyakovaResearch Analyst+44-20-754-74994 Several economic indicators are due across the major economies next week. Thisincludes the jobs report, ISM manufacturing and PCE inflation in the US as wellas the flash CPIs in the Euro Area. Both will also release Q1 GDP prints. In Asia,the focus will be on the BoJ meeting and April PMIs in China. An avalanche ofcorporate earnings will centre around results from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon andMeta. Jim ReidHead of Global Economics andThematic Research+44-20-754-72943 A data-packed week is ahead in the US, with the April jobs report (Friday), ISMmanufacturing index (Thursday) and core PCE for March (Wednesday) among themost closely watched releases due. Our US economists see payrolls up +150k inApril, down from +228k in March, with the unemployment rate (4.2%) and hourlyearnings growth rate (+0.3%) unchanged. Their forecast for core PCE inflation isa +0.1% MoM growth (+0.4% in March). Luke TemplemanResearch Analyst+44-20-754-10130 The focus will also be on the preliminary Q1 GDP reading, due Wednesday as well,and our US economics team forecast +1.1% annualised growth, down from +2.4%in Q4 2024. The employment cost index and the ADP’sreport of private payrollsare also due out the same day. On Tuesday, notable releases feature MarchJOLTS data and Conference Board’s consumer confidenceindicator. Apart from economic indicators, investors will closely followTreasury’s updatedborrowing estimates (Monday) and the refunding announcement (Wednesday).Our strategists’preview and forecasts arehere. Over in Europe, several important indicators will be out as well. This includes flashCPIs starting with Spain on Tuesday. Prints for Germany, France and Italy are dueWednesday,with Eurozone-level indicators out on Friday.Our Europeaneconomists preview the prints including their forecastshere. They see EurozoneHICPat 2.09%(core 2.54%)with country-level detail including 2.21%forGermany, 0.74% for France, 2.10 for Italy and 2.06 for Spain. On Wednesday, Q1 GDP reports are due for Germany, France, Italy and theEurozone. Multiplesentiment indicators will be released as well, includingconsumerconfidence in Germany and Italy as well as ECB’s consumerexpectations survey (Tuesday). Briefly turning to politics, a few events will be in focus next week. First up is thefederal election in Canada on Monday. In the US, Wednesday will mark PresidentTrump’s first 100 days in office. In Europe, the UK holds local elections onThursday. Moving on to Asia, in Japan, the focus will be on the BoJ decision due Thursday.Our Chief Japan economist previews the meetinghereand expects the currentmonetary policy stance to be maintained. In economic indicators, industrialproduction and retail sales for the country will be released on Wednesday. Oureconomist expects industrial production for March to slip -0.3% MoM. He also 25 April 2025Thematic Research highlightsJapan Finance Corporation’s latest small business survey(Wednesday) as well as the consumer confidence survey (Thursday) that shouldreflect sentiment following the tariff announcements. The second round of US-Japan trade talks will take place next week too. See more in his full week aheadhere. In China, the official April PMIs as well as the Caixin manufacturing index, dueWednesday, will be parsed for the impact of tariffs. Current consensus estimateson Bloomberg for the official gauges suggest manufacturing may slip to 49.8 from50.5 in March, with the non-manufacturing index down very slightly (50.7 vs50.8). Rounding out with corporate earnings, next week will see nearly 40% of the S&P500 by market cap reporting results. All eyes will be on Microsoft and Meta onWednesday and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. Other tech names reportinginclude Qualcomm, Spotify and Cadence Design Systems. Visa, Mastercard, UPSand Caterpillar are among other notable names in the S&P 500releasingearnings. The US consumer will be in focus with reports from Coca-Cola,McDonald’s,Starbucks andDomino’s. Next week will also feature results from key healthcarefirms - Eli Lilly, Amgen and Pfizer in the US and Novartis, AstraZeneca and GSKin Europe. Some of theworld’s largest energy firms reportas well, includingExxon Mobil and Chevron in the US and Shell, TotalEnergies, BP and Equinor inEurope. In Europe, the focus will also be on some of the largest banks, automakers suchas Porsche, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz as well as other names includingBASF, adidas and Iberdrola. In Asia, notable reporters include Samsung, TokyoElectron and Hitachi. 25 April 2025Thematic Research Day-by-day calendar of events Monday April 28 Data: US April Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, France Q1 total jobseekersCentral banks:ECB’s Rehnand Guindos speakEarnings: Hitachi, Welltower, Waste Management, Cadence Design Systems,Deutsche Boerse, NXP Semiconductors, Domino's PizzaAuctions: US Treasury updated borrowing estimates