近期美国国债期限溢价冲击如何传导？

North AmericaUnited States Fixed Income ChartOf The Day How has the TP shock passed through? Matthew RaskinStrategist+1-212-250-1741 Last week we showed thestriking relationship between countries’ net internationalinvestment positions (NIIPs) and moves in their longer-term bond yields since April1st, reflecting the importance of fiscal space to the impact of the tariff shock. Steven Zeng, CFAStrategist+1-212-250-9373 Today’s chart offers another lens into recent moves, focusing on changes in 5s10sterm premium (TP) across G10 currency countries. Francis YaredStrategist+44-20-754-54017 On the y-axis is the ratio of the post-April 1 change in TP in each country to the movein US Treasury TP (which is up 17bp over the period), a measure of the pass-throughof recent shocks. For each country, this ratio is positive but below one, reflectingincreases in TP but ones that are smaller than in the US, as might be expected giventhe nature of the shocks. To contextualize these recent moves, on the x-axis is theaverage pass-through from US to foreign TP around FOMC meetings over the past15 years, intended to capture thetypicalbeta for US-centric shocks. Soniya SadeeshStrategist+44-20-754-73091 Ioannis SokosStrategist+44-20-754-75680 Overall, the moves are centered on the 45-degree line, pointing to pass-through thatis broadly in-line with history rather than flight from the US driving non-US TP down.Indeed, over half of the countries lie above the line, reflecting somewhat larger-than-expected rises given historical dynamics. That said, it is notable that Germany,Switzerland, and Japan fall below the line, suggesting these countries may bebenefiting from actual or expected portfolio reallocation and a strengthening insafe-haven demand. (As we recently flagged, the rise in long-end JGB yields hasbeen outsized, leading us to add along 30y JGB to our macro portfolio.) Gabriele CozziStrategist+44-20-754-17714 Mingyue XinStrategist+44-20-754-10002 Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, please visit our globaldisclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from withinthis report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or viewin this report. Matthew Raskin, Steven Zeng, Francis Yared, Soniya Sadeesh, Ioannis Sokos, Gabriele Cozzi, Mingyue Xin. Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively 'DeutscheBank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to bereliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to third-party websites in thisreport are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for theaccuracy or security controls of those websites. If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in this report, oris included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Bank may act asprincipal for its own account or as agent for another person. Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for its own accountor with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others within Deutsche Bank,including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this researchreport. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of communication may differ fromrecommendations contained in others, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, perspectives orotherwise. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliates may also be holding debt or equity securities of the issuers it writes on. Analystsare paid in part based on the profitability of Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliates, which includes investment banking, tradingand principal