2025年加密货币市场展望

Market Outlook ExecutiveSummary DavidDuong
CoinbaseINSTITUTIONAL
Headof Research As we look forward into 2025, the cryptocurrency market is poised for transformative growth. Thematuration of the asset class continues to gain momentum, with increasing institutional adoption andexpanding use cases across its various sectors. In just the past year, spot ETFs were approved in the US,tokenization of financial products increased dramatically, and stablecoins saw massive growth andgreater integration into the global payments framework. Getting here has been no easy task. But while it’d be easy to think of these successes as the culminationof years of work, increasingly it looks like they’re actually just the beginning of something much bigger. Crypto’s strides are all the more impressive when we consider that, only a year ago, the asset class wasreeling from interest rate hikes, regulatory crackdowns, and an uncertain path forward. It’s a testament tocrypto’s resilience that despite all of those challenges, it has become a firmly established alternativeasset class with real staying power. From a markets perspective though, the uptrend in 2024 does belie some stark differences with previousbull cycles. Some of them are cosmetic: the term “web3” was replaced with the more fitting “onchain.”Others are more profound: a demand for fundamentals has started to replace the waning influence ofnarrative-driven investment strategies, partly due to wider institutional participation. Moreover, not only did bitcoin dominance surge, but the innovations in decentralized finance pushed theboundaries of what’s possible with blockchain – putting the foundations of a new financial ecosystemwithin reach. Central banks and major financial institutions around the world are discussing how cryptocan potentially make things like asset-issuance, trading, and record-keeping more efficient. Going forward, the current crypto landscape presents a multitude of promising developments. At thebleeding edge of disruption, we’re looking at decentralized peer-to-peer exchanges, decentralizedprediction markets, and artificial intelligence (AI) agents equipped with crypto wallets. Closer to theinstitutional front, we see significant potential in stablecoins and payments (bringing crypto and fiatbanking solutions closer together), undercollateralized onchain lending (facilitated by onchain creditscores), and compliant onchain capital formation. Despite widespread crypto awareness, the technology remains largely obscure to many due to its noveltechnical structure. But technological innovations are also poised to change this, as more projects focuson improving the user experience by abstracting away blockchain complexities and enhancing smartcontract functionality. Success here may broaden crypto’s accessibility for a new class of users. Meanwhile, the foundations for greater regulatory clarity in the US were laid in 2024, long beforeNovember’s elections. This has set the stage for greater advancements in 2025, potentially solidifying therole of digital assets in mainstream finance. As the regulatory and technological landscapes evolve, we expect to see substantial growth in the cryptoecosystem as wider adoption drives the industry closer to achieving its full potential. This will be apivotal year. The breakthroughs and advancements of 2025 may very well help shape the long-termtrajectory of the crypto industry for decades to come. Additional resources This report is part of our efforts to provide applicable market intelligence to our institutional clients,highlighting updates on our institutional practice in long-form format. We encourage readers to visit andsubscribe to our team’s other publications to stay up to date: ===Coinbase Institutional Research websitnCoinbase bloDCoinbase Markets Podcast (with Trading Desk) Authors David Duong, CFA
Head of Research David Han
Research Analyst Contributors Jillian Spina
Senior Product Marketing Manager Viktor BuninGroup Protocol Specalist Special thanks to JaydipMahida DavidMenz KatieMitchell BrandonMyint Ben Rodriguez Shaida Safai Jaclyn Sales Gregg Schoenberg Hoolie Tejwani John Turner MikeUrciuoli
Roeland Van Der Stappen AndrewAllen Scott Bauguess Anthony Bassili Robin Cook Alissa Davies NeilGallagher Note: AlldataincludedinthisreportisasofDecember1,2024unlessotherwisenoted. Contents Executive Summary2 Additional Resources 4 1Key Themes for 20258 1The 2025 Macro Roadmap8What the Fed Wants, What the Fed Needs8The Most Pro-Crypto US Congress … Ever9Crypto ETFs 2.010Stablecoins, Crypto’s “Killer-App”12The Tokenization Revolution13The DeFi Resurgence14 2DisruptingParadigms14TelegramTradingBots:Crypto’sHidden Profit Center14Prediction Markets:Table Stakes16Games:IfItBleeds,ItLeads17Decentralizing the Real World17ArtificialIntelligence, AuthenticValue18 4User Experience23User Experience(UX)Improvements23Owning theInterface24DecentralizedIdentity25 Bitcoin226 Market OutlookT