追踪劳动生产率增长放缓：瑞典（英）

Tracing the Slowdown ofLabor ProductivityGrowth Sweden Xin Tang SIP/2025/037 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on February 9, 2025. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/53. 2025APR IMF Selected Issues PaperEuropean Department Tracing the Slowdown of Labor Productivity Growth, SwedenPrepared by Xin Tang Authorized for distribution by S. Pelin BerkmenApril 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on February 9, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/53. ABSTRACT:Labor productivity in Sweden is among the highest in Europe but has been experiencing asecular decline since the GFC, similar to trends in other advanced economies. Sweden’s strong performance issupported by a skilled labor force, a competitive business environment, high R&D investments, and deepfinancial markets. However, evidence points to barriers to resource allocation across sectors and firms, and amulti-faceted solution is needed. Proposed reforms by the authorities’ Productivity Commission couldeffectively address these issues. Given the evolving structure of the Swedish economy, policies that facilitatethe growth of services sector firms would be particularly beneficial. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Xin Tang. Tracing the Slowdown of Labor Productivity Growth. IMF SelectedIssues Paper (SIP 2025/037). Washington DC. International Monetary Fund. Tracing the Slowdown of LaborProductivity Growth Sweden Prepared by Xin Tang1 SWEDEN TRACING THE SLOWDOWN OF LABOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH ________________2 A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________2B. Sweden’s Labor Productivity Relative to Other European Countries__________________3C. A Change in Sectoral Composition and Secular Labor Productivity Growth Decline__7D. Organization of Production at the Micro Level_______________________________________9E. The Road Ahead ___________________________________________________________________11 BOXES 1. Summary of the Analysis by Persson et al. (2024) ____________________________________52. Sweden’s R&D Ecosystem__________________________________________________________13 FIGURES 1. Real Output and Labor Productivity of Selected Countries ___________________________32. Labor Productivity of Listed Firms ____________________________________________________33. Venture Capital Investment __________________________________________________________54. Sectoral Composition of the Swedish Economy ______________________________________75. Sectoral Composition of Manufacturing and Services Sectors________________________86. Firm Distributions of Sweden ________________________________________________________97. Average Labor Productivity by Firm Size ___________________________________________108. Technology Gap between Lead and Median Firms _________________________________11 References____________________________________________________________________________15 TRACING THE SLOWDOWN OF LABOR PRODUCTIVITYGROWTH Labor productivity in Sweden is among the highest in Europe but has experienced a secular growthdecline since the GFC, similar to trends in other advanced economies. Sweden’s strong performance issupported by a skilled labor force, a competitive business environment, high R&D investments, anddeep financial markets. However, evidence points to potential barriers to resource allocation acrosssectors and firms, which requires a multi-faceted solution. Proposed reforms by the authorities’Productivity Commission could effectively address these issues. More broadly, given the evolvingstructure of the Swedish economy, horizontal policies that facilitate the growth of services sector firmswould be particularly beneficial. A.Introduction 1.The per capita income level in Sweden is higher than the average for other Europeancountries but remains slightly below that of the United States(Figure 1, left panel).Since theearly 1990s, Europe’s real GDP per capita had rapidly converged with that of the U.S., but theconvergence nearly stalled in the 2010s (IMF, 2024b). Sweden has experienced solid real GDP percapita growth, although the growth rate has slowed since the 2010s. Average labor hours per workerin Sweden have been stable (around 1,450 hours annually), indicating that labor productivity is a keyfactor in per capita income developments (Figure 1, right panel). Sweden’s labor productivity grewfaster than that of the U.S. until 2006. However, during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) (2007–09),Sweden’s labor productivity growth was -1.1 percent between, compared to 2 percent in the U.S.Since then, average growth rate (2010–23) has dec